Friday, November 13, 2015

Saturday Predictions: Week 11

After losses to Alabama, Tennessee, and Florida, a victory
over Auburn could be the difference between a merely
disappointing season and an unmitigated disaster for the
Georgia Bulldogs. AP Photo/John Amis
I hope college football fans enjoyed the two great games we had last night. Hopefully we get more of the same thrilling action this weekend. Tonight there's just one game, between Colorado and USC at 9:00. The Buffaloes will be major underdogs at home, so keep an eye open for an upset but don't expect it.

To start Saturday, we have Duke hosting the Pittsburgh Panthers. Another loss will eliminate the Blue Devils from ACC title contention, while a loss for Pitt will likely spell their own elimination. Both teams are looking to rebound from embarrassing losses in the previous week.

This year did not go as planned for Georgia or Auburn. Both teams were favorites to win the SEC in the preseason; now, both have already been eliminated from title contention. They'll look to make their own seasons a little brighter and their rival's just all that more miserable. Georgia must perform better on offense in order to compete with Auburn on the road.

Florida has already won the SEC East, but must also defeat South Carolina in order to remain in consideration for a playoff berth. Although they began the year very poorly, South Carolina has picked up their game on offense in the last month. If possible, they will need to attack a strong Florida defense in its weakest points in order to score on the Gators. Florida's offense, on the other hand, has frequently stuttered in recent weeks. The Gamecock defense ranks near the bottom of the SEC, although the Gator offense may not be capable of exploiting it.

At half past noon, NC State and Florida State will kickoff in Tallahassee. In recent years, FSU has done well in weeks following a loss. However, NC State has historically been one of Florida State's more competitive conference opponents. The Wolfpack will require an outstanding performance from their quarterback to overcome the FSU defense and offensive backfield.

The big game at 3:30 will feature Alabama and Mississippi State. Some believe Alabama to be the nation's best team, however, they have not played a quarterback as good as Mississippi State's Dak Prescott. Prescott leads his team in passing and rushing and is responsible for 25 touchdowns against just one turnover. However, if any defense can be expected to shut down such a dominant player, it should be Alabama's. The Bulldogs could shock the college football world in Starkville, even if the odds are against them.

UNC could finish their regular season 12-1, with a win over
Clemson in the ACC Championship. Even then, they are not
assured a spot in the playoffs. Bob Donnan-USA TODAY Sports
The North Carolina Tar Heels will seek their ninth consecutive win of the season when they play Miami in Chapel Hill. North Carolina should win this game barring disaster.

Tampa will host a ranked team when Temple visits South Florida. The Bulls have played well on defense over the last several weeks, have a solid rushing game, and make plays with their quarterback. For these reasons, the Bulls are only a slight underdog to the nationally-recognized Temple (although the Owls are built in much the same way). Anticipate this game to be a classic battle of run-first offenses and good defenses.

The other two ranked teams in the American Conference, Houston and Memphis, will battle for control of the AAC West. Memphis is coming off their first defeat, a bad one to Navy, while Houston had a close call last Saturday against Cincinnati. This game should be close; look for the team that forces more turnovers to emerge victorious.

LSU may still be disappointed after last week, but must not get caught up in "could-have-beens" if they wish to defeat Arkansas. Arkansas is one of the better four-loss teams in the country, and have the ability to upset the Tigers, even in Baton Rouge. If LSU can not restart their running game, they may very well drop a second-straight game.

Highly-ranked Stanford plays Oregon in a critical Pac-12 matchup. Stanford can clinch a division title with a win over Oregon. They should do this, considering their superior defense and reliable offense. However, the Ducks are not turkeys on the field, and could keep the game competitive given they hit enough big plays.

Missouri has attracted much attention for their university's problems last week. Their football team will not get it easy this Saturday night, as they play BYU in a "neutral site" game in Kansas City. Missouri has been fairly awful on offense through their SEC schedule. However, their defense should still keep BYU's offense in check. Expect a low-scoring contest in which the deciding score may have been forced by the defense or a busted scheme, as it should be very difficult for either team to sustain drives.

The Oklahoma defense has been embarrassed for two straight
years. They'll need much better play this year to knock off the
undefeated Baylor Bears. Mark D. Smith-USA TODAY Sports
We might find a barn-burner in Waco when Oklahoma takes on the Baylor Bears. Baylor has beaten Oklahoma three times in history – all within the last four years. In the last two games, Oklahoma was humiliated by the Bears, being beaten by a combined score of 89-26. Oklahoma must get more production out of their running backs to keep up with the high-flying Baylor offense, while replicating some of the defensive success Kansas State had against the Bears.

Arizona has lost five of their last seven games (three in lopsided blowouts), but can find redemption if they manage to defeat Utah late on Saturday. The Wildcats cannot afford to play sloppy against Utah's defense (on of the Pac-12's best). A loss could knock the Utes out of playoff contention.

Even later at night, Washington State takes on UCLA. The Bruins have reeled off three-straight wins after two bad losses in the middle of the season. It could be difficult to pick up a fourth against a very confident Cougars squad.

State of Florida:
  • 11 Florida (8-1) over South Carolina (3-6), 17-10
  • Middle Tennessee (4-5) over Florida Atlantic (2-7), 31-20
  • 16 Florida State (7-2) over North Carolina State (6-3), 31-24
  • 23 North Carolina (8-1) over Miami (6-3), 45-24
  • Marshall (8-2) over FIU (5-5), 42-27
  • South Florida (5-4) over 22 Temple (8-1), 21-17
  • UCF (0-10), BYE
Southeastern Conference:
  • Auburn (5-4) over Georgia (6-3), 31-27
  • Tennessee (5-4) over North Texas (1-8), 56-7
  • 2 Alabama (8-1) over 17 Mississippi State (7-2), 24-20
  • Vanderbilt (3-6) over Kentucky (4-5), 10-6
  • Texas A&M (6-3) over Western Carolina (6-3), 56-21
  • 9 LSU (7-1) over Arkansas (5-4), 31-24
  • Missouri (4-5) over BYU (7-2), 14-13
  • Mississippi (7-3), BYE
Top 25:
  • 1 Clemson (9-0) over Syracuse (3-6), 49-21
  • 3 Ohio State (9-0) over Illinois (5-4), 38-20
  • 4 Notre Dame (8-1) over Wake Forest (3-6), 42-17
  • 5 Iowa (9-0) over Minnesota (4-5), 31-21
  • 12 Oklahoma (8-1) over 6 Baylor (8-0), 49-45
  • 7 Stanford (8-1) over Oregon (6-3), 38-35
  • 8 Oklahoma State (9-0) over Iowa State (3-6), 42-21
  • 10 Utah (8-1) over Arizona (5-5), 28-21
  • 13 Michigan State (8-1) over Maryland (2-7), 31-20
  • 14 Michigan (7-2) over Indiana (4-5), 38-17
  • 15 TCU (8-1) over Kansas (0-9), 70-14
  • 18 Northwestern (7-2) over Purdue (2-7), 30-17
  • 19 UCLA (7-2) over Washington State (6-3), 34-31
  • 20 Navy (7-1) over SMU (1-8), 45-21
  • 21 Memphis (8-1) over 24 Houston (9-0), 35-31
  • 25 Wisconsin (8-2), BYE

Tuesday, November 10, 2015

Know Your Opponent: South Carolina

A two-touchdown performance by back Rainey Cawthon led
the Gators to a 20-7 victory over South Carolina in Columbia
on November 23, 1929. The Seminole
This Saturday, the Gators head out on the road for the final time before the SEC Championship Game. Their opponents are the Gamecocks of the University of South Carolina. Classes began at South Carolina College in 1805, just over three years after the state legislature ordered its establishment in the capital of Columbia. The small college prospered over the next 56 years until the outbreak of the Civil War. The war completely devastated the institution. Even before combat broke out, most of the student body was enthusiastic to serve the Southern cause. By 1862, only nine students remained and the school was forced to close. The campus was converted into a hospital and, because of this, was spared from ruin after Union forces captured Columbia in 1865. After the war ended, the college was renamed the "University of South Carolina", but floundered under the conditions of Reconstruction. The state's Republican government desegregated the school, which ultimately led to a predominately black student body. After Democrats regained control of the state legislature, they forced the struggling university to close in 1877. However, the school was reorganized into the South Carolina College of Agriculture and Mechanic Arts and reopened in 1880. The college simply became "South Carolina College" in 1891, after the agricultural school was transferred to the new agricultural college west of Greenville. South Carolina College, which now focused towards liberal arts and sciences, barely survived the governorship of Benjamin Tillman, as greater state funding was allocated towards Clemson Agricultural College. The election of Duncan Heyward as governor brought a reemergence of the institution. In 1906, 101 years after the establishment of its earliest predecessor, the college was re-chartered as the "University of South Carolina". The university now enrolls over 33,000 students, including almost 25,000 undergraduates. The school colors are garnet (a dark shade of red) and black.

South Carolina first began playing football in 1892 and has had moderate success since that time. The nickname "Gamecocks" was embraced after its use in a local newspaper in 1902. The Gamecocks joined the Southern Conference (SoCon) in 1922, the conference's inaugural season. In 1953, South Carolina left SoCon to become one of eight charter members of the Atlantic Coast Conference (ACC); the Gamecocks remained in the ACC until becoming an independent in 1971. South Carolina joined the Southeastern Conference in 1992. South Carolina won a single ACC championship in 1969 and has never won an SEC title. The Gamecocks play home games in Williams-Brice Stadium, near the university campus. Williams-Brice Stadium has a capacity of over 80,000. The record single-game attendance, however, stands at over 85,000. Despite their lack of conference and national titles, South Carolina fans regularly fill their large stadium to capacity.

Despite a list of notable successes, South Carolina has never won a national title. One Gamecock, George Rogers, was awarded the Heisman Trophy in 1980. The 1984 Gamecocks won their first nine games, defeating such powers as Georgia, Pitt, Notre Dame, and Florida State on their way to a #2 ranking by mid-November. Unfortunately for Carolina, the Cocks were upset by Navy in Annapolis, ruining their prospects for a potential national title. The '84 team would end their season with an exhilarating comeback win over Clemson and a loss in the Gator Bowl. Recently, South Carolina has ranked as high as ninth, eighth, and fourth in the final AP Poll (in 2011, 2012, and 2013, respectively). In addition, those three seasons were the first, second, and third years that South Carolina won 11 games in a single season. The head coach that brought South Carolina to such heights was Steve Spurrier, who led the Gamecocks from 2005 until resigning after the sixth game of this season. Spurrier led Carolina to their first (and only) SEC East title in 2010 before beginning the three-year run of 11-win seasons. Over his 11-year tenure at South Carolina, Spurrier accumulated an 86–49 record, making him the winningest head coach in school history (with 22 more victories than the second-winningest, Rex Enright).

Destined to one day become their greatest head coach, Steve
Spurrier was the quarterback on the 1964 Gators team that
obliterated the Gamecocks 37-0 before 43,000 at Florida Field.
The Seminole
South Carolina and North Carolina have contested a border rivalry since 1903 (UNC leads the series 34-19-4), although it's only been played irregularly since South Carolina joined the SEC. Georgia and South Carolina first met in 1894, have played their border rivalry regularly since 1958, and annually since 1992 (UGA leads USC, 48-18-2). However, the most important rival by far for the Gamecocks are the Clemson Tigers. South Carolina and Clemson first did battle in 1896 and have met annually since 1909, making this series the second-longest uninterrupted annual series in FBS football (only Minnesota and Wisconsin's series, which has gone on annually since 1907, is longer). Clemson has gotten the better of Carolina more often than not, owning a 66-42-4 advantage over the Cocks.

The Florida Gators and South Carolina Gamecocks first met on the football field in 1911. However, they only began playing each other annually when South Carolina joined the SEC in 1992. The Gators and Gamecocks have played a total of 35 games; 24 have ended in Florida triumphs, eight have been won by South Carolina, while three have ended in ties. Their first meeting involved the only undefeated team in Florida history. The 1911 Gators finished the season 5-0-1, with their only draw being a 6-6 tie to South Carolina in Columbia (the Gamecocks ended the year 1-4-2). The series became more competitive after former Gator quarterback and head coach Steve Spurrier became head coach of the Gamecocks. Spurrier’s Gamecocks defeated his old team on five occasions and played one notable game against the 2006 Gator squad that would go on to a national title. Florida had to block two kicks, a PAT and a field goal, to preserve their lead and come out with a 17-16 victory over the Gamecocks in the Swamp. Spurrier would end his career with a 5-5 record against his alma mater.

South Carolina's fight song, "The Fighting Gamecocks Lead the Way", is actually an arrangement of the show tune "Step to the Rear" from Elmer Bernstein's 1967 musical How Now, Dow Jones. Athletic director Paul Dietzel replaced the old fight song with it shortly after the musical closed on Broadway.

Monday, November 9, 2015

Saturday in Review: Week 10

Oklahoma State and Baylor are the last two undefeated teams
in the Big 12. They meet in two weeks.
Rob Ferguson-USA TODAY Sports
As predicted, the tenth week of college football was one of the year's most chaotic. Seven days ago, we had 11 unbeaten teams in FBS football. Today, we're left with only six. Toledo was the first to fall when they lost to NIU last Tuesday. Baylor managed to hold off Kansas State's rally to stay undefeated on Thursday. Arkansas State upset Appalachian State on the road. On Friday, Temple escaped Dallas with a 60-40 win over SMU in a game that was closer than the score suggests.

Things got stranger on Saturday. Undefeated TCU was blown out by undefeated Oklahoma State, despite the fact that the Horned Frogs actually outgained the Cowboys 663 to 456 in total offensive yards. TCU's four interceptions doomed the Frogs to their first defeat of the year.

Nebraska stunned Michigan State, delivering the Spartans' their first loss in 364 days. After falling down by 12 points late in the fourth quarter, Nebraska scored two touchdowns in the final two minutes to knock MSU from the ranks of the unbeaten. But this was not without controversy. It appears as though Nebraska's receiver, who caught the game-winning touchdown pass with just 17 seconds left, stepped out of bounds before returning to the field of play and catching the touchdown. This would qualify as an illegal touch, and the play would have been treated like an incomplete pass; however, the officials decided that the receiver was pushed out of bounds by a Michigan State defender (this does not appear evident on video), and the touchdown stood.

Elsewhere in the Big Ten, Northwestern needed a last-minute field goal to get over Penn State. Iowa fought off plucky Indiana to stay perfect.

USC rallied in the fourth quarter to overcome Arizona. Washington State also needed a last-quarter comeback to down Arizona State. The Cougars benefited from a so-called "fifth down" play where the officials mistakenly rewarded Wazzu with an extra down to play after failing to convert on fourth down.

Top-ranked Clemson upended Florida State, winning 23-13 and clinching the ACC Coastal division. FSU scored on their second play from scrimmage as running back Dalvin Cook sprinted 75 yards for a touchdown. That single play accounted for over one fifth of Florida State's daily offensive production, as Clemson outgained FSU 512 to 286 in offensive yards from that point forward. The front-runner in the ACC's other division, North Carolina, won a huge victory over rival Duke. The Tar Heels crushed the Blue Devils 66-31. As of now, however, UNC still needs to beat two of their next three opponents to ensure a trip to the conference championship game.

Pitt was overwhelmed by the Notre Dame offense.
SBT Photo/BECKY MALEWITZ
Miami held off Virginia to reach bowl eligibility. Notre Dame had no problems defeating Pitt at Heinz Field. The Irish are now an impressive 8-1, with wins over Navy, USC, and Temple, despite a number of injuries to key players.

The Navy Midshipmen sunk the hopes formerly-undefeated Memphis had for a playoff berth, earning a dominant 45-20 victory. Navy is now in prime position for a 10 win season and perhaps a conference championship. The lone remaining undefeated team from the American conference, Houston, barely escaped Cincinnati and their lethal passing attack at home.

UCF became the first team of the year to lose ten games, falling to the Tulsa Golden Hurricane this last Saturday. The game was close until a burst of points by Tulsa in the fourth quarter. South Florida is now one win away from bowl eligibility after a narrow win over East Carolina on the road.

Alabama ground their way to a win over LSU in the day's most-anticipated game. The Tigers hung in with Alabama through the first half, going into the break down only 13-10. However, the Crimson Tide's offensive line and defense soon began to impose their will on LSU. By the end, Alabama had outgained LSU 434 to 182 in total offensive yards, effectively snuffing out the highly-regarded LSU rushing attack. The Tigers' halfback Leonard Fournette ended with just 31 rushing yards on 19 carries for the entire game.

In one of the wildest finishes of the season, Arkansas topped Ole Miss 53-52 in overtime. The Razorbacks needed a bizarre impromptu lateral to convert a seemingly hopeless fourth-and-long in overtime. Auburn dominated Texas A&M in their 26-10 triumph in College Station.

Georgia's defense and running game gave Kentucky little chance in their matchup. South Carolina took Tennessee down to the wire, but lost the ball on a fumble within Tennessee's 20-yard-line and with less than 40 seconds to go. As in several other games this season, Tennessee capitulated a two-touchdown lead (which they took into halftime); this time, however, they managed to win at the end.

Florida clinched the SEC East and a trip to Atlanta with their win over Vanderbilt. However, that victory did not come as easily as most predicted. On the first drive of the game, Florida got down to Vanderbilt's 3-yard-line, but failed to score any points after turning the ball over on downs. Later in the first quarter, the Gators drove 59 yards for a touchdown, but failed the PAT after placekicker Neil MacInnes shanked it badly. Florida returned to the scoring-position twice again in the half, only to fumble to ball away to Vanderbilt immediately after crossing the 20-yard-line both times. Making matters worse for the Gators, their defense gave up a 74-yard touchdown run by Commodore halfback Ralph Webb after shutting down Vanderbilt's offense throughout the half.

Austin Hardin's late field goal gave the Gators the lead and
 Florida's first SEC East title in six years. John Raoux - AP
After halftime, neither team seemed capable of moving the ball against the opposing defense until Florida's first drive of the final quarter. Down 7-6, Florida drove 57 yards before receiver Demarcus Robinson (who ended the game with 106 receiving yards) fumbled the ball on Vandy's 12-yard-line. After four seperate appearances in the redzone without scoring, the Gators were in danger of losing with time running out. When Florida got the ball back, just 5:27 remained, but the Gators had good field position after a bad punt. The Gators gained 20 yards before the drive stalled on fourth-and-one, the ball on Vandy's 25-yard-line. Embattled kicker Austin Hardin was sent out to attempt the 43-yarder and he hammered it straight between the uprights, giving the Gators a 9-7 lead with just over two minutes remaining. The Commodores converted two first downs (both via penalty) on the succeeding drive, but failed to pick up a third and the Gators ran out the clock.

Other than giving up the big run play, the Gator defense was spectacular. However, the Gator offensive line was greatly ineffective against Vandy's defense in opening running lanes or providing pass protection. Yet, Florida will advance the SEC Championship Game. Jim McElwain joined many other UF head coaches from history who struggled in their first game against Vanderbilt. Tom Lieb lost his (and Florida's) first game to Vandy, 7-0, while his successor Raymond Wolf lost 20-0 the following year. Bob Woodruff earned Florida their first win over Vanderbilt in nail-biting fashion, winning 31-27 in Nashville. Ray Graves's inaugural game against Vanderbilt was won 12-0 after a late touchdown off a fake field goal gave the Gators a two-score lead. Doug Dickey and Charley Pell both lost their first games against the Commodores, 24-10 and 31-29, respectively. The first Galen Hall team to face Vandy lost 24-9. Ron Zook slipped by Vandy 21-17 in his first year while Urban Meyer's first team needed overtime to down Vandy, 49-42. The Gators struggled against Vandy in Will Muschamp's inaugural season, barely winning 26-21. In fact, the only Florida head coach to buck the historical trend and beat Vanderbilt decisively in his first opportunity was Steve Spurrier (his '92 team beat Vandy by 20 points). Florida's two-point win last Saturday was the smallest ever margin-of-victory in a Gator win over Vanderbilt.

State of Florida:
  • FIU (5-5) over Charlotte (2-7), 31-14 48-31
  • 10 Florida (8-1) over Vanderbilt (3-6), 21-3 9-7
  • Western Kentucky (8-2) over Florida Atlantic (2-7), 42-21 35-19
  • Tulsa (5-4) over UCF (0-10), 49-20 45-30
  • Miami (6-3) over Virginia (3-6), 27-20 27-21
  • 1 Clemson (9-0) over 16 Florida State (7-2), 34-27 23-13
  • South Florida (5-4) over East Carolina (4-6), 24-17 22-17
Southeastern Conference:
  • 20 Mississippi State (7-2) over Missouri (4-5), 14-6 31-13
  • Georgia (6-3) over Kentucky (4-5), 38-21 27-3
  • 18 Mississippi (7-3) over Arkansas (5-4), 24-20 53-52 (OT)
  • Tennessee (5-4) over South Carolina (3-6), 42-24 27-24
  • 19 Texas A&M (6-3) over Auburn (5-4), 42-35 26-10
  • 4 Alabama (8-1) over 2 LSU (7-1), 28-24 30-16
Top 25:
  • 3 Ohio State (9-0) over Minnesota (4-4), 38-28 28-14
  • Pittsburgh (6-3) over 5 Notre Dame (8-1), 20-17 42-30
  • 6 Baylor (8-0) over Kansas State (3-5), 49-24 31-24
  • 7 Michigan State (8-1) over Nebraska (4-6), 35-28 39-38
  • 14 Oklahoma State (9-0) over 8 TCU (8-1), 49-45 49-29
  • 9 Iowa (9-0) over Indiana (4-5), 28-17 35-27
  • 11 Stanford (8-1) over Colorado (4-6), 31-27 42-10
  • Washington (4-5) over 12 Utah (8-1), 20-16 34-23
  • 13 Memphis (8-1) over Navy (7-1), 27-21 45-20
  • 15 Oklahoma (8-1) over Iowa State (3-6), 38-17 52-16
  • 17 Michigan (7-2) over Rutgers (3-6), 27-10 49-16
  • 21 Northwestern (7-2) over Penn State (7-3), 17-10 23-21
  • 22 Temple (8-1) over SMU (1-8), 31-14 60-40
  • 23 UCLA (7-2) over Oregon State (2-7), 38-13 41-0
  • 24 Toledo (7-1) over Northern Illinois (6-3). 38-31 32-27
  • 25 Houston (9-0) over Cincinnati (5-4), 34-28 33-30
Week 10 Record: 22-7 (76%)
Season Record: 215-54 (80%)

Thursday, November 5, 2015

Saturday Predictions: Week 10

Mississippi State may have the SEC's best quarterback. He'll
face a very good defense in Missouri tonight.
Matt Bush-USA TODAY Sports
Prepare yourself for chaos this week. One ranked team (Toledo) already lost on Tuesday, and expect many more to do the same on Saturday. There are six games you may enjoy on Thursday night, but three are more interesting. Arkansas State visits Boone, North Carolina to face Appalachian State in a battle of the Sun Belt Conference's only teams undefeated in league play. The Red Wolves have been the most consistent program in the Sun Belt for the last half decade, though the Mountaineers have dominated their conference opponents this season (in fact, their only loss on the year was to top-ranked Clemson). The winner of this game should win out and capture the conference title. Next, undefeated Baylor goes on the road to play Kansas State. Baylor has not faced many challenges this season, and, unfortunately, there's not much reason to believe Kansas State will threaten their perfect record. The Wildcats have lost their last four consecutive games and haven't looked the strong team one usually expects from KSU. Finally, Mississippi State and Missouri kick off in Columbia. The Tigers have an excellent defense and will need more than a few big plays from that unit in order to stay competitive with the more balanced Bulldogs.

As usual, Friday doesn't receive any games of major interest. Ranked Temple must bounce back from last week's heartbreaking defeat. Luckily for the Owls, they get defensively hapless SMU as their opponent. After that game finishes, you can watch BYU, who have quietly compiled a 6-2 record, do battle with San José State. The Spartans are one of the better teams in the Mountain West (admittedly, a weak conference), but will need a good performance to pull the upset at home.

Saturday will be completely action-packed, starting at noon. Ranked Northwestern hosts Penn State as only a slight favorite at home. Look for this game to be defensive and low-scoring. The Victory Bell is at stake when Duke faces North Carolina in Chapel Hill. UNC is 4-0 in the ACC while Duke is 3-1, so this game may very well decide who winds up in Charlotte for the conference championship game. Duke may be a better-coached team, but UNC has the advantage of their home field and in talent.

Georgia returns to Athens to play Kentucky. The Wildcat offense has flailed about in futility for the last month or so. Georgia's has looked even worse. However, the Bulldogs won't face a defense of Alabama, Missouri, or Florida's quality versus Kentucky. The Wildcats will need to hit more big plays and avoid turnovers if they have any hope of pulling the upset.

Florida can clinch the SEC East and a trip to Atlanta with a
win over Vanderbilt. Kim Klement-USA TODAY Sports
It's homecoming in Gainesville, where Vanderbilt will meet the Florida Gators. Vanderbilt has a very talented and disciplined defense, so expect them to frustrate the inconsistent Gator offense. However, the disparity between Florida's defense and Vandy's offense is even greater. The Gator defense should prove too difficult for the Commodores to overcome in the Swamp.

Last week, Notre Dame narrowly avoided defeat in a professional football stadium in the state of Pennsylvania. This week, they may do the exact same thing against Pitt. The Panthers have a knack for playing at the level of their competitors, and may have a chance here against the highly-touted Irish. Notre Dame has a talented, but mistake prone offense. Pitt will need to take advantage to pick up their second-consecutive win over the Irish.

Later, in the afternoon, Miami takes on Virginia, hoping to maintain the momentum from last week's shocking victory. If Miami stays focused, they should defeat the Cavaliers. Many will turn their eyes towards Clemson to watch the Tigers play Florida State at 3:30. Last time these teams played in Clemson, the Seminoles won 51-14. The next year a backup quarterback beat Clemson in overtime. Clemson probably has a better team this year, although FSU has playmakers across the field on both sides of the ball. Look for a close game if the Seminoles can pass downfield against the Clemson secondary.

Arkansas and Ole Miss kick off in Oxford in what should be a good SEC battle. The Rebels are favored by a couple scores in this game, but it may be more probable that this game is close. The Razorbacks have a respectable run game with a big offensive line. With a solid defensive performance, they should negate some portion of Mississippi's home-field-advantage. The Rebels should need big plays from their receivers to come out on top.

The action out west begins when Arizona State takes on Washington State in Pullman. Both teams are one week removed from a heartbreaking defeat. They'll be desperate to get their season back on track with a win here. Those who aren't watching the game in Clemson will likely be watching two undefeated Big 12 teams go at it in Stillwater. There, Oklahoma State and TCU are expected to score many, many points in what should be a thrilling competition. The team who scores last will probably win this game.

Navy can gain national respect (for the quality of their
football team's play) by beating Memphis.
Tommy Gilligan-USA TODAY Sports
Another undefeated team from Texas, the Houston Cougars, will be tested when they play Cincinnati at home. The Bearcats could be the toughest opponent Houston's played all year. However, Cincy doesn't fare as well on the road, and will need to play well to upset the Cougars. Later, after the sun sets, Navy will face Memphis in a game between two of the American conference's best teams. Navy will need their best performance of the year to defeat the highly-ranked Tigers.

Michigan State is unbeaten but is only a slight favorite over six-loss Nebraska on the road. Nebraska does have the potential to upset the Spartans. They'll need to play well for all four quarters and shut down the Spartan offense in order to pull the improbable victory. Utah may be 7-1, but they're also underdogs to four-loss Washington in Seattle. As well as Utah has played for much of the year, it seems as though their offense has been figured out in recent weeks. Washington hasn't been spectacular this season, but is fresh off an impressive blowout of Arizona. This Pac-12 matchup may likely be close and low-scoring.

Texas A&M meets Auburn yet again for their now-annual showdown. Neither team is the best in the West, yet they still have plenty of playmakers around the field. Kyle Field will be a difficult venue for the Auburn offense to play in and succeed. South Florida will also have a hostile crowd to face when they go against East Carolina. The Pirates are rebuilding this year, but still have a respectable team, especially on defense. South Florida has been rebuilding for years, and are just now finding their way towards winning. The Bulls have found ways to win games this season, something the Pirates haven't been so successful in doing. South Florida should win this game if they get another solid outing from their running backs.

The big show this Saturday will be held in Tuscaloosa yet again. The LSU Tigers are set to take on the Alabama Crimson Tide in a huge matchup of SEC West powers. Louisiana State has the nation's best running back and a great defense. Alabama has what may be an even better defense and a ground attack of similarly great, but probably not superior, quality. Expect great efforts from LSU's Leonard Fournette and Alabama's Derrick Henry. However, look closely at how each quarterback performs. Whoever relieves more pressure from their running backs by proving a threat through the air will give his team a crucial advantage. The winner of this game will likely go on to play in Atlanta.

The day ends with a pair of games on the Pacific coast. Cal and Oregon are both 5-3 and looking to reach bowl-eligibility with a win here. Oregon's defense has been atrocious this year, but are aided by home-field-advantage. If Cal can avoid mistakes on offense, they can end their six-game losing streak to their northerly neighbors. Down in Los Angeles, USC hosts the reeling Arizona Wildcats. USC should have to much for Arizona to handle.

State of Florida:
  • FIU (4-5) over Charlotte (2-6), 31-14
  • 10 Florida (7-1) over Vanderbilt (3-5), 21-3
  • Western Kentucky (7-2) over Florida Atlantic (2-6), 42-21
  • Tulsa (4-4) over UCF (0-9), 49-20
  • Miami (5-3) over Virginia (3-5), 27-20
  • 1 Clemson (8-0) over 16 Florida State (7-1), 34-27
  • South Florida (4-4) over East Carolina (4-5), 24-17
Southeastern Conference:
  • 20 Mississippi State (6-2) over Missouri (4-4), 14-6
  • Georgia (5-3) over Kentucky (4-4), 38-21
  • 18 Mississippi (7-2) over Arkansas (4-4), 24-20
  • Tennessee (4-4) over South Carolina (3-5), 42-24
  • 19 Texas A&M (6-2) over Auburn (4-4), 42-35
  • 4 Alabama (7-1) over 2 LSU (7-0), 28-24
Top 25:
  • 3 Ohio State (8-0) over Minnesota (4-4), 38-28
  • Pittsburgh (6-2) over 5 Notre Dame (7-1), 20-17
  • 6 Baylor (7-0) over Kansas State (3-4), 49-24
  • 7 Michigan State (8-0) over Nebraska (3-6), 35-28
  • 14 Oklahoma State (8-0) over 8 TCU (8-0), 49-45
  • 9 Iowa (8-0) over Indiana (4-4), 28-17
  • 11 Stanford (7-1) over Colorado (4-5), 31-27
  • Washington (4-4) over 12 Utah (7-1), 20-16
  • 13 Memphis (8-0) over Navy (6-1), 27-21
  • 15 Oklahoma (7-1) over Iowa State (3-5), 38-17
  • 17 Michigan (6-2) over Rutgers (3-5), 27-10
  • 21 Northwestern (6-2) over Penn State (7-2), 17-10
  • 22 Temple (7-1) over SMU (1-7), 31-14
  • 23 UCLA (6-2) over Oregon State (2-6), 38-13
  • 24 Toledo (7-1) over Northern Illinois (6-3), 38-31 32-27
  • 25 Houston (8-0) over Cincinnati (5-3), 34-28

Tuesday, November 3, 2015

Know Your Opponent: Vanderbilt

The 1951 Gators were the first to defeat Vanderbilt in
Gainesville. Explosive runs by quarterback Haywood Sullivan
were key to the Gators' blowout victory on Homecoming.
The Seminole
The Gators return to the Swamp for the first time in over a month to face the Commodores of Vanderbilt University. In 1872, Southern Methodist leaders, led by cleric Holland McTyeire, voted to establish a "Central University" in Nashville, Tennessee for the purpose of training ministers. However, the school lacked the necessary funding until McTyeire met Cornelius Vanderbilt in New York the following year. Vanderbilt, whose wife was the cousin of McTyeire's, was the wealthiest man in the United States at that time, having made millions in the steamboat industry and other endeavors. McTyeire convinced the aging Vanderbilt, who never visited the South, to donate part of his fortune towards the establishment of Central University. Vanderbilt had contributed much to the U.S. Navy in an effort to defeat the Confederacy during the Civil War, but wished to help reconcile the sectionalized nation. The university was dedicated to Vanderbilt when it opened in 1875, although Vanderbilt himself never visited the school before his death in 1877. By 1914, Vanderbilt University had severed all ties with the Methodist Church. Vanderbilt is the smallest and only private university in the Southeastern Conference, and enrolls just under 13,000 students (almost 7,000 of which are undergrads). The school colors are black and gold.

Vanderbilt has an old tradition of playing football, but has only enjoyed modest and sparing success since their first game in 1890. The nickname "Commodores" originated in 1897, an homage to the personal nickname of shipping magnate Cornelius Vanderbilt himself. Vanderbilt joined the Southern Conference (SoCon) before its inaugural season in 1922 and won part of the first two SoCon championships. The Commodores were charter members of the Southeastern Conference in 1933, but have yet to win an SEC title. Vanderbilt is the only founding member of the SEC still without a conference championship (Sewanee, who departed the SEC in 1940, is the only other charter member without a title). The Commodores play home games in Vanderbilt Stadium, the SEC’s smallest football facility. Vanderbilt Stadium has a capacity of about 40,000.

Unlike most its conference brethren, Vanderbilt has never won an SEC or national title. Vandy has played in only seven bowl games in over 12 decades of playing the sport and only won four. In addition, the Commodores have never won more than nine games in one season; since 1890, Vanderbilt has had four nine-win seasons (190419152012, and 2013). The 1904 squad was one of the greatest of its era, going undefeated and untied through nine games and outscoring opponents by an incredible margin of 474 to 4. The 1922 Southern Conference champions were another great team, going 8-0-1 and shutting out seven of nine opponents (their lone tie was to Michigan, who also finished the season unbeaten). Both the 1904 and 1922 teams were led by head coach Dan McGugin, the greatest head ball coach in Vanderbilt history. McGugin (1904–1934) ended with a 197-55-19 record in 30 seasons at Vanderbilt. In recent times, the 2012 Commodores stand out as the finest fielded by the university. The 2012 Commodores went 9-4, only losing games to South Carolina, Northwestern, Georgia, and Florida (those teams would finish the season ranked 8th, 17th, 5th, and 9th, respectively, by the AP); the 2012 team started their season 2-4, but finished with seven consecutive victories, a 41-18 victory over Tennessee, and a 23rd place ranking in the final AP poll.

Three fourth-quarter touchdowns lifted Florida past Vandy in
1969. John Reaves tossed three touchdown passes to Carlos
Alvarez
 that day while safety Steve Tannen made two timely
interceptions and blocked a PAT. The Seminole
In the early days of Vanderbilt football, Sewanee was the Commodores' most important rival. Both were small private schools in central Tennessee, but powerhouses in Southern football. Over time, Sewanee declined and the Sewanee-Vanderbilt rivalry became one-sided, eventually ending in 1944 (Vandy leads, 40-8-4). For the last century, Tennessee has been Vanderbilt's primary antagonist. Tennessee and Vanderbilt have played on 109 occasions since the rivalry began in 1892. Vanderbilt had a decided edge in the earliest decades, winning 19 of the first 23 games against Tennessee while only losing twice. However, the tide turned against Vanderbilt after Tennessee hired Robert Neyland as head coach. Since Neyland began his third year at UT in 1928, Tennessee has beaten Vandy 72 times while Vanderbilt has only beaten Tennessee 11 times. Today, Tennessee holds a 74-30-5 advantage in the series. Still, nothing contributes more to the success of a Vanderbilt season than upsetting the Volunteers of Knoxville.

Florida and Vanderbilt have been playing football against each other since 1945, although the series has only been played annually since 1992. The Gators and Commodores have played a total of 48 times; Florida has defeated Vanderbilt on 36 occasions, while Vandy has triumphed over Florida just 10 times (two games have ended as ties). Florida won 22 straight games in the series from 1989 to 2012 and 19 straight games at home from 1951 to 2011. In 2013, Vanderbilt snapped these long-standing losing streaks by defeating the Gators 34-17 in Gainesville. Both Florida’s 1996 and 2006 national championship squads were nearly upset by inspired Vanderbilt teams. Quarterback Jay Cutler led the Commodores into overtime with the Gators in 2005, but couldn’t seal the upset.