Saturday in Review: Week 5

Yesterday was not the best Saturday of the season. Only one Top 25 team was upset and no two Top 25 teams played another (though there was such a match-up on Thursday). We college football fans are still anticipating the epic clashes between SEC West powerhouses that await us this season. But hey, it was still more fun and interesting than most days in the world of sports. Actually, it was really fun, as there turned out to be quite a few great games that exceeded expectations.

Despite having lost to a wholly unimpressive Indiana team,
Missouri is the only team in the SEC East left undefeated in
conference play. (Credit: Bill Carter)

Only one team in the top-four (and that's the magic number with the playoffs) played last week. And it might be the worst team of the four, as of now, despite being ranked #1. This of course was Florida State, who played and defeated their conference nemesis, the North Carolina State Wolfpack. Now, watching the game, it appeared to me that both were surprisingly similar teams. Both had outstanding, electrifying leaders at quarterback. Both had over-matched defenses who struggled mightily to defend the pass and simply make tackles. But one team was just that much better. And that's why that team won.

I really can't add anything that hasn't already been said about Jameis Winston. His accuracy and decision-making consistently reaffirm why he won the 2013 Heisman so convincingly. He single-handily raises this Florida State team from being an ACC-championship contender to being a national-title contender. Had Winston been suspended for this game rather than last week's, Florida State probably would have suffered a conclusive defeat. Winston is irreplaceable to this FSU team. In this way he is much reminiscent of former championship quarterbacks like Tebow, Newton, and, well, himself last year. But make no mistake; he's even more important this year.

The spectacular effort of quarterback Jacoby Brissett was not
enough to lift his Wolfpack past the offensive juggernaut of
Jameis Winston and Florida State. (Credit: Grant Halverson)

The losses to Florida State's offensive line, secondary, and front-seven (plus the loss of Kelvin Benjamin) have all added up. This year's FSU squad cannot rely on suffocating defense and a particular play-making athlete to crush lesser opponents into submission. I know Rashad Greene and Nick O'Leary are great players. They both should get careers playing on Sundays. But they are to the Seminoles as Riley Cooper and Aaron Hernandez were once to the Gators. Great players... but they were no Percy Harvin. Even with Cooper and Hernandez (who both went on to successful pro-careers), the sans-Harvin 2009 Gator offense could not compare to their 2008 predecessors. Harvin and Benjamin were the kind of players defenses were forced to scheme around, and if they failed to do that, they were sure to pay dearly.

Florida State won, but in doing so gave up 41 points in regulation. By an AP-#1 team against an unranked opponent, these were the fourth-most points ever conceded, the third most in a non-overtime game, the most in a non-overtime game since 1981, and the most ever in a win. Additionally, this was the first time since Florida State's 2008 loss to Florida that over 40 points and 500 yards of offense were given up. It is not unheard-of for a championship team to concede so many points in 60 minutes, but it is very unusual. To illustrate this, I'll list the BCS champions and the instances in which they gave up the most points.

Year	Champion	Most Points Conceded*	Opponent	Outcome
1998	Tennessee	33	Syracuse	1-point W
1999	Florida State	35	Georgia Tech	6-point W
2000	Oklahoma	31	Kansas State/ Texas A&M	10-point W/ 4-point W
2001	Miami	27	Florida State	22-point W
2002	Ohio State	21	Texas Tech	24-point W
2003	LSU	24	Arkansas	31-point W
2004	USC	28	Stanford	3-point W
2005	Texas	38	USC	3-point W
2006	Florida	28	Arkansas	10-point W
2007	LSU	34	Alabama	7-point W
2008	Florida	31	Mississippi	1-point L
2009	Alabama	24	Virginia Tech	10-point W
2010	Auburn	43	Arkansas	22-point W
2011	Alabama	21	Georgia Southern	24-point W
2012	Alabama	29	Texas A&M	5-point L
2013	Florida State	34	Boston College	14-point W

*During 60 minutes of regulation

So, as you can see, only 2010 Auburn gave up more points than FSU did Saturday and went on to a championship victory. Florida State must defy the odds to bring in the trophy January with what appears to be a vulnerable defense. Next week, Florida State plays a mediocre Wake Forrest squad in Tallahassee. This time, expect the Noles to look a bit more like they did last season.

[Funny things about that table above: Arkansas is on there three times and Georgia Southern (of all teams!) scored more points against the incredible '11 Alabama defense than anyone else. Must be the triple-option... Also, several of the higher numbers on the table are outliers within their respective team's seasons ('98 Tennessee, '05 Texas, '08 Florida, and '10 Auburn had no other games where an opponent scored within seven points of their seasonal most-points-conceded mark).]

Let's see... what is there to talk about besides the defending champs? Well, in the state of Florida, South Florida played above expectations, but were doomed by a fumble on a promising late drive against the Badgers. Florida fans sat at home, happy to see their Gators not-lose but probably feeling a bit coulda-woulda-shoulda seeing former back-up Jacoby Brissett play an impressive game in a losing effort against FSU. FIU shocked UAB in Birmingham. Florida Atlantic won a close one, as I tenuously projected, against a better-than-you-might-think UTSA squad. Miami beat Duke in front a a very sparse night crowd in Sun Life Stadium. (I wonder if some high school games in Miami draw bigger crowds?)

Georgia was very lucky to win at home against the Volunteers. This shouldn't surprise anyone who's been following the UGA-UT rivalry in recent years. This is the third-straight year Tennessee's dropped a heart-breaker to the heavily-favored Dawgs (sound familiar, fellow Gator fans?). Texas A&M beat Arkansas in overtime by a score of 35-28 (just one field goal off my prediction). Alabama must be very wary of this Razorback team when they visit Fayetteville in a couple weeks. Missouri defeated South Carolina in eastern Columbia, coming back to win 21-20 after being down 20-7 with less than seven minutes to play. I was a little surprised by this somehow, to see Mizzou beat the East's tentative "favorite" a week after losing to a bad Indiana team at home. I'll say this now: expect any outcome in the East this year. And the West, for that matter. As it's been for the past decade or so, the SEC race is about impossible to predict at this point in the season.

I faltered with both my Pac-12 upset picks this week. Arizona State could not compete with UCLA in the second half after giving up a pick-six while in scoring range at the end of the first and going into halftime down 10. Washington played Stanford close, as I said they would, but couldn't pull it out against the vaunted Cardinal defense.

State of Florida:

• #19 Wisconsin (3-1) over South Florida (2-3), 34-10 27-10
• UAB (2-2) over FIU (2-3), 38-7 34-20
• #1 Florida State (4-0) over NC State (4-1), 31-24 56-41
• Florida Atlantic (2-3) over UTSA (1-3), 28-24 41-37
• Miami (3-2) over Duke (4-1), 34-31 22-10
• Florida (2-1), BYE
• UCF (1-2), BYE

Southeastern Conference:

• #12 Georgia (3-1) over Tennessee (2-2), 42-20 35-32
• Kentucky (3-1) over Vanderbilt (1-4), 31-14 17-7
• #6 Texas A&M (5-0) over Arkansas (3-2), 38-28 35-28 (OT)
• #5 Auburn (4-0) over Louisiana Tech (2-3), 52-17 45-17
• #13 South Carolina (3-2) over Missouri (4-1), 34-24 21-20
• #10 Mississippi (4-0) over Memphis (2-2), 42-21 24-3
• #17 LSU (4-1) over New Mexico State (2-3), 45-10 63-7
• #3 Alabama (4-0), BYE
• #14 Mississippi State (4-0), BYE

Top 25:

• #7 Baylor (4-0) over Iowa State (1-3), 41-24 49-28
• #8 Notre Dame (4-0) over Syracuse (2-2), 38-17 31-15
• #9 Michigan State (3-1) over Wyoming (3-2), 45-14 56-14
• #15 Arizona State (3-1) over #11 UCLA (4-0), 31-24 62-27
• Washington (4-1) over #16 Stanford (3-1), 21-17 20-13
• #18 USC (3-1) over Oregon State (3-1), 38-21 35-10
• #21 Nebraska (5-0) over Illinois (3-2), 45-31 45-14
• #22 Ohio State (3-1) over Cincinnati (2-1), 31-21 50-28
• #24 Oklahoma State (3-1) over Texas Tech (2-2), 42-24 45-35
• #25 Kansas State (3-1) over UTEP (2-2), 45-20 58-28
• #2 Oregon (4-0), BYE
• #4 Oklahoma (4-0), BYE
• #20 BYU, BYE
• #23 East Carolina, BYE

Week 5 Record: 18-4 (82%)

Season Record: 51-16 (76%)