Bowl Predictions: Before Christmas

The Ragin' Cajuns are three-time defending New Orleans
Bowl champions but will face a difficult challenge in Nevada
this Saturday. Nelson Chenault-USA TODAY Sports

It's just about time for bowl season. That means we get to watch live college football just about every day from December 20th to January 4th. And that's why college football fans love the holidays. We'll start the bowl preview with every game held before Christmas. Follow my bowl predictions with live updates at ESPN's Bowl Mania.

New Orleans Bowl: Louisiana-Lafayette (7-1 Sun Belt) will be playing their postseason bowl in the Superdome for the fourth consecutive year. They'll also be looking for their fourth bowl win in that many years. This year, their opponent is the Nevada Wolfpack (4-4 MW West). ULL is coming off a successful season in the Sun Belt; their lone conference loss was to an Appalachian State team that was playing very well late in the season. Their three other losses were all blowouts to good teams (Louisiana Tech, Ole Miss, and Boise State). Nevada's season has been difficult at times... the Wolfpack mounted fourth-quarter-comebacks against Arizona, Boise State, and Colorado State (all three teams ended the season with at least 10 wins), but came up just short each time. Nevada tied the game late against an excellent Air Force team... only to lose in overtime. Their fifth and final loss was the only bad one (20 points to Fresno State). This is a Nevada team that is better than its record, although their not used to playing so far east as New Orleans. The Ragin' Cajuns are far more familiar with the location and are sure to bring more fans. Both teams are fairly average in most respects, though the run is the strength of both offenses. Although Louisiana-Lafayette may have "home-field advantage", the better team should be Nevada.

• Nevada (7-5) over Louisiana-Lafayette (8-4), 35-24

New Mexico Bowl: Utah State (6-2 MW Mountain) comes into Albuquerque as one of the biggest favorites of the bowl season. The Aggies have won nine games while only losing four (and each of their four losses were on the road to eventual bowl-bound teams). Their signature wins were convincing victories against BYU and Air Force. UTEP (5-3 C-USA West) has been decidedly less impressive this season, despite receiving a bowl bid. The Miners did not beat one team this season that will also be going to a bowl. Only once did they play a close game against a good (bowl-going) team. Utah State should avoid the upset if they continue to play good defense.

• Utah State (9-4) over UTEP (7-5), 38-20

Colorado State will battle an old conference rival when they
play Utah in Vegas. The two teams are meeting for the 80th
time since they first played in 1902. The Utes lead the series
55-22-2. Mark J. Rebilas-USA TODAY Sports

Las Vegas Bowl: Utah (5-4 Pac-12 South) will be the first ranked team to play this postseason. The Utes are also the first team from a Power Five (P5) conference to play a bowl game. Their opponents, the Colorado State Rams (6-2 MW Mountain), are one of the best teams not from a P5 conference. However, the Rams must contend with the loss of head coach Jim McElwain, who left Fort Collins earlier this month to join a prominent program. The Utes are no strangers to close games and exciting fourth quarters. Seven of their 12 regular season games were decided by seven points or less (and Utah was 5-2 in those seven games). Most notably, the Utes downed UCLA, USC, and Stanford in nail-biters. The Utes have also played in three overtime games this year (the most of any team). Colorado State has won a few close ones of their own... four of their 10 wins were by seven or less. The Rams notched wins against Boston College, Nevada, and Utah State, but also lost a close one to Air Force and badly against Boise State. Colorado State has a potent offense (particularly through the air), but will be facing one of the best defenses they've seen all year. Mountain West teams tend to knock off their Pac-12 counterparts in this game, but, due to the absence of McElwain, expect the Utes to have a coaching and preparation advantage.

• 22 Utah (8-4) over Colorado State (10-2), 24-20

Potato Bowl: This year's edition of the Potato Bowl might be nicknamed the "Turnaround Bowl". Each team, Western Michigan (6-2 MAC West) and Air Force (5-3 MW Mountain), has won seven more games this year than they did the year before. Both teams should be well accustomed to the cold weather that often accompanies Boise's bowl game. After a disastrous 2013 season that only saw the Broncos win one game, WMU came back to almost win their conference this year. The Broncos play well on both sides of the ball and won six straight before dropping their season finale. Air Force has been one of the most surprising success-stories of the season. The Falcons swept their fellow academies and were formidable playing at home. Playing in Colorado Springs (where they went undefeated), Air Force shot down Boise State, Navy, Nevada, and Colorado State. The challenge for WMU will be stopping Air Force's option offense and moving the ball against a well-disciplined defense.

• Air Force (9-3) over Western Michigan (8-4), 34-27

Camellia Bowl: The final game of the first day of bowl season features two seemingly evenly-matched, if somewhat underwhelming, bowl teams. Bowling Green (5-3 MAC East) has lost four of their last six, although only one of their six total losses was to a team that ended with a losing record. Meanwhile, South Alabama (5-3 Sun Belt) has lost four of their last five, but haven't lost once to a team that ended below .500. In fact, neither team has any particularly impressive wins, but neither do they have any embarrassing losses. The Falcons have one more win, but the Jaguars have played a slightly more difficult schedule. BGSU has a poor defense, but a serviceable offense; USA is the direct opposite – they compensate for a poor offense with their defense. South Alabama will be playing their first bowl game in program history, so expect a good contingent of fans to make the trip to nearby Montgomery. If South Alabama can find enough success running they ball, they should pull out a close one. Expect a close game.

• South Alabama (6-6) over Bowling Green (7-6), 23-20

Memphis is enjoying a level of success not experienced in
decades. A win against BYU would match a school record for
wins in a single season. Justin Ford-USA TODAY Sports

Miami Beach Bowl: BYU takes on Memphis (7-1 American) in the inaugural bowl game at Marlins Park. Memphis is ending its season in Miami after a historically good season – only the 1938 Tigers, who went 10-0, won more games. Memphis also won its first conference championship since 1971. BYU, which is an independent, had a good (but not outstanding) season. Memphis started their season 3-3 before reeling off six straight victories. The Tigers' first loss was an upset bid that fell just short against UCLA in the Rose Bowl. Their second loss was to Ole Miss in a game that was close until the fourth quarter while their third was to a now-bowl-going Houston squad. Although the Tigers have three "quality" losses, they only have one win that came against another bowl team (Memphis crushed Cincinnati back in early October). BYU has a similar record, although they began their season with four straight wins. The BYU Cougars' third win, which came against the Houston Cougars, was their only victory against an eventual bowl team. BYU followed their four straight wins with four straight losses. Each of those losses was to a good team (Utah State, UCF, Nevada, and Boise State). Part of this slump was due to the loss of quarterback Taysom Hill against Utah State. After dropping to 4-4, the Cougars pulled off another four straight wins. Memphis has a good offense, but BYU's is even better. BYU has a strong defense, but Memphis's is even stronger. These evenly matched squads are set up for a game that should come down to the wire.

• Memphis (9-3) over BYU (8-4), 34-31

Boca Raton Bowl: This new bowl game, played on the campus of Florida Atlantic University, matches the only two teams with at least 11 wins playing before Christmas against each other. Marshall (7-1 C-USA East) and Northern Illinois (7-1 MAC West) are the champions of their respective conferences. The Thundering Herd spent most of the season utterly dominating Conference USA. Only in their last three games were they truly challenged or beaten. With the season taken as a whole, Marshall was a class above their conference brethren both offensively and defensively. The Herd's only loss was an out-of-character overtime shootout against Western Kentucky. Marshall's ability to dominate their schedule was no doubt a result of their schedule's incredible weakness. Northern Illinois has played a comparably weak schedule. NIU's games have, in general, been more closely contested than Marshall's. Yet, the Huskies have a knack for winning games. Both teams' defenses were the class of their conferences, but only Marshall has a balanced offense. NIU's dependence on the ground-game could be their downfall against Marshall.

• Marshall (12-1) over Northern Illinois (11-2), 38-34

Poinsettia Bowl: San Diego State (5-3 MW West) will be playing on their home turf when they face Navy in the postseason. Navy should have plenty of their own fans present though, San Diego being home to a major naval base. Neither team was overly impressive this season, although both did achieve their goal of reaching a bowl. For the most part, the Aztecs fell short against the best competition from the Mountain West. The one exception was when they downed Air Force late in November. Navy played Air Force in early October but lost; the Midshipmen were most impressive when they sunk and destroyed Georgia Southern. Both teams are evenly matched but utilize different offensive styles. Navy has the better offense, though SDSU has a capable defense that effectively neutralized Air Force (who run an offense similar to Navy). The winner may be the team that loses less turnovers.

• San Diego State (7-5) over Navy (7-5), 31-27

Thomas Robinson Stadium in Nassau, Bahamas hosts the first
bowl played outside the United States since 2010 and the first
outside the US or Canada since 1937. Wikimedia Commons

Bahamas Bowl: This year, Christmas Eve is Archipelago Day in college football. The day's first game will be played in the city of Nassau on the island of New Providence in the Bahama Archipelago (better known as the Bahamas). This new bowl game is the first FBS postseason game held outside the United States since the 2010 International Bowl in Toronto. Before that, there was Havana's Bacardi Bowl, last officially played in 1937. Central Michigan (5-3 MAC West) will challenge Western Kentucky (4-4 C-USA East) in this remarkable game. The teams themselves are less remarkable. Central Michigan played an easy schedule and won seven games (the best being a 17-point victory over Northern Illinois); they were also decisively defeated by two of the worst P5 conference teams, Kansas and Syracuse. Like CMU, EKU was the only conference team to defeat its conference champion – the Hilltoppers topped Marshall by one point on the road. EKU also beat Bowling Green and Navy early in the season and have fewer bad losses than the Chippewas do. The Hilltoppers do, however, possess one of the worst statistical defenses in the FBS. They counter that with one of the best statistical offenses (they are particularly effective passing the ball). Western Kentucky should come out on top here, though their lack of a defense should keep it close.

• Western Kentucky (7-5) over Central Michigan (7-5), 44-41

Hawaii Bowl: Christmas Eve's second game will be played in the city of Honolulu on the island of Oahu in the Hawaiian Archipelago. There, Fresno State (5-3 MW West) will attempt to gain their seventh win of the season over a team that already has seven wins, the Rice Owls (5-3 C-USA West). Fresno State may have lost seven games this season, but three of those losses were to USC, Utah, and Nebraska and twice they lost to Boise State. The Bulldogs have two bad losses (UNLV and Wyoming) but also two good wins (San Diego State and Nevada). Fresno State is, essentially, an average team – in no way do they excel but they are good enough to win six games on their schedule. Much of the same can be said of Rice. For the most part, the Owls have beaten all the worst teams on their schedule while losing to all the best. Usually, the Owls crush teams lesser than themselves. But in every case the Owls played a better team they lost badly. Like Fresno State, the Owls are jacks-of-all-trades on the field and masters-of-none. Either team could win this as a close game or a blowout.

• Fresno State (6-7) over Rice (7-5), 35-31