Bowl Predictions: National Championship

Oregon will try to secure their first college football national
championship since their program began in 1894.
Kelvin Kuo-USA TODAY Sports

The college football season comes to an end tonight with the National Championship Game in Arlington, near Dallas. The Ohio State Buckeyes face the Oregon Ducks after both teams advanced past the playoff semifinals. The Buckeyes look to claim their eighth (claimed) national title, while the Ducks are seeking their first. Both squads will arrive in AT&T Stadium with identical 13-1 records and impressive résumés. Review their seasons in my post on New Year's bowl games.

The Oregon defense forced five turnovers in their blowout defeat of Florida State in the Rose Bowl. The Seminole defense also forced two turnovers, but were otherwise unsuccessful in their attempts to slow down the Oregon offense. The opportunistic Ducks exploited each Seminole giveaway, scoring 34 points off FSU fumbles and interceptions. The Noles had some success moving the ball against the Ducks until their turnover problems ground their effectiveness to a halt. The Ducks only began to pull away in the second half of the third quarter.

Ohio State overcame a 15-point deficit to knock off Alabama in the Sugar Bowl. After falling down 21-6 in the second quarter, the Buckeyes rallied to outscore Alabama 36-14 until the end of the game. The Buckeyes outplayed the Crimson Tide in every significant aspect of the game; most critically, OSU gained 111 more rushing yards than Bama. The Buckeyes lost fewer turnovers than the Tide and were much more effective in converting third downs.

The Buckeyes meet the Ducks for the ninth time in history
tonight. Ohio State has won each of the previous eight
meetings. Matthew Emmons-USA TODAY Sports

Both the Buckeyes and the Ducks have excellent defenses, but their offenses are even better. Duck quarterback Marcus Mariota played well enough throughout the year to earn the Heisman Trophy while the Buckeyes haven't missed a beat despite losing their top two quarterbacks to injury this season. Cardale Jones was OSU's third-string gunslinger during the preseason, but has impressed in his first two starts. More important to the Ohio State offense is their running game, led by halfback Ezekiel Elliott. While the OSU offense can effectively throw the ball, they are more dependent on the ground game with their productive running backs and scrambling quarterbacks. Oregon has no clear weaknesses on offense and are very balanced, although they will be missing their second-best receiver due to suspension. The Ducks make very few mistakes, despite attacking at a very fast tempo. While the Buckeyes possess a defense at nearly full strength, the Ducks are missing their all-American corner, who cannot play because of injury. Like most national finalists, both squads are very well coached.

This should be a close game decided in the fourth quarter. If the Ducks can manage to hold Ohio State to less than 200 rushing yards, they should come out victorious. However, if the Buckeyes can build a rhythm on the ground, they should down the Ducks.

• 2 Oregon (13-1) over 4 Ohio State (13-1), 43-38