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| Ole Miss may be able to rely on their defense, but must find some way to move the ball against TCU. Michael Chang |
Ole Miss won their first seven games, in retrospect, an impressive feat. During this streak the Rebels defeated six future bowl teams (including Louisiana-Lafayette, Texas A&M, and Tennessee) and three future conference champions (Boise State, Memphis, and Alabama). The games against Memphis and Boise State were close until the Rebels pulled away in the fourth quarter; while those wins looked good when they happened, they're even more impressive now. Ole Miss held Memphis to three points – against only one other opponent were the Tigers held to less than 24; in addition, no other opponent beat Memphis by more than seven points (including Pac-12-power UCLA). The Rebels beat Boise State by 22 points – only one other team (Air Force) defeated the Broncos. The apex of the Rebels' season was their six-point triumph over Alabama, a win that broke a 10-year losing streak to the Tide. The Rebels downed the Tide with good defense and an efficient passing game. This impressive streak skyrocketed Ole Miss to the top of the polls. Finally, LSU reminded the Rebels of their mortality. In a defensive slugfest, the Tigers effectively stymied the Rebel offense and won a close game despite losing four turnovers. Next week, the Rebels lost another heartbreaker, this time, to Auburn. Playmaking receiver Laquon Treadwell also suffered a season-ending injury in the defeat. Disaster struck Ole Miss against Arkansas... the Rebels lost six turnovers in the shutout loss. The Rebels redeemed themselves in a dominant victory over rival Mississippi State in the Egg Bowl.
TCU may have the most impressive résumé of any team outside the playoffs. The Horned Frogs won their first four games against Samford, Minnesota, SMU, and Oklahoma before their one and only loss of the season. Against Baylor, the Horned Frogs let a 21-point fourth-quarter lead slip away, losing on a last-second field goal. TCU rebounded with two dominating victories over Oklahoma State and Texas Tech. The Frogs need a last-second field goal of their own to defeat their next opponent, West Virginia. TCU followed this escape with an obliteration of Kansas State; they followed this, perhaps their most impressive win of the season, dodging an upset against Kansas. Pushing towards a possible playoff berth, the Frogs proceeded to demolish their final two opponents.
Together, Ole Miss and TCU have the two best defenses of their respective conferences. The Rebels' Bo Wallace and the Frogs' Trevone Boykin are two talented, experienced quarterbacks, both highly capable of running their offenses. The Rebels will miss Treadwell in this game, but still have enough talent to win.
- 9 Mississippi (9-3) over 6 TCU (11-1), 31-24
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| The Broncos could continue their streak of Fiesta Bowl success with a win over Arizona. Brian Losness-USA TODAY Sports |
Arizona won the first five games of their season, though it wasn't easy. The first was a blowout win over UNLV; this was followed by four straight nail-biters over UTSA, Nevada, California, and Oregon. The win over Cal was achieved via a last-second Hail Mary. The impressive victory over Oregon in Eugene was done while many Ducks were sidelined by injuries. The undefeated season ended the next week with a narrow loss to USC. The Cats next beat Washington State before losing again to the other Los Angeles team, UCLA. Arizona won out their last four games, notched notable victories against Utah and Arizona State, and clinched a spot in the Pac-12 Championship Game. There they met Oregon for a rematch, seeking to duplicate their previous result. This time, however, the Ducks were healthier and better prepared; the Wildcats were crushed by the eventual playoff-team.
The Broncos began their season with a blowout loss to Ole Miss. They bounced back the next week to score a decisive victory over Colorado State. Boise State rolled past UConn and Louisiana-Lafayette before dropping another game, this time, a two-touchdown defeat against Air Force. The Broncos wouldn't lose another game all season. They slipped by Nevada and Fresno State, outscored BYU and New Mexico, came back against San Diego State, and swept aside Wyoming and Utah State. They ended this run with a dominating rematch win over Fresno State.
These teams appear evenly matched... both have good offenses that compensate for often-vulnerable defenses. Both have balanced offenses but somewhat lean towards the pass. This game should be close and high scoring.
- 10 Arizona (10-3) over 20 Boise State (11-2), 48-45
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| The Bulldogs weathered the nation's best division during the regular season, although Georgia Tech is well equipped to deliver them a sting. Derick E.Hingle-USA TODAY Sports |
Mississippi State was one of the last undefeated teams to fall this season, winning all of their first nine games. The Bulldogs won their first three games, but first started to gain repute after holding off an LSU comeback in Death Valley. State continued to impress by convincingly besting their next two opponents, Texas A&M and Auburn. The Bulldogs continued to roll until traveling to Tuscaloosa to take on the Tide. The Alabama defense forced three interceptions from Bulldog quarterback Dak Prescott, which was, in the end, too much for Mississippi State to overcome. An easy win over Vanderbilt was followed by another crushing defeat to rival Ole Miss.
The Yellow Jackets were not so impressive during the early season. Georgia Tech won their first two games over Wofford and Tulane. Then, Georgia Southern, another in-state option-offense team, came into Atlanta, hungry for an upset. Ultimately, a furious comeback by the Eagles fell short, and the Jackets escaped. Georgia Tech fought off their next two opponents, Virginia Tech and Miami. A strong Duke team downed the Yellow Jackets the next week while a talented-but-inconsistent North Carolina squad gave Georgia Tech a two-game losing streak. But things were starting to click for the Jackets. Georgia Tech blasted their next four ACC opponents, outscoring Pittsburgh, Virginia, NC State, and Clemson by significant margins. The Yellow Jackets clinched a division championship before heading to Athens to take on rival Georgia. In an improbable overtime victory, Georgia Tech shocked the Dawgs and won their first game over Georgia in six years. Tech then traveled to Charlotte for the ACC Championship Game against Florida State. The Jackets nearly pulled the upset, but couldn't stop FSU's offense consistently enough.
It's probably accurate to say that Mississippi State has played better this season... however, Georgia Tech has played better ending the season. Both teams have good offenses; in fact, Georgia Tech's flexbone is one of the most effective and hard-to-stop offenses in the country. Mississippi State, on the other hand, has the superior defense (one equipped to limit Tech's triple-option attack). The Bulldog defense must react well to the absence of their defensive coordinator, who has left Mississippi State for a position at another school. Georgia Tech should win if they can execute their offensive gameplan and not allow themselves to fall behind.
- 12 Georgia Tech (10-3) over 7 Mississippi State (10-2), 35-30
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| Longtime head coach Barry Alvarez will once again lead the Badgers into a bowl game. Brian Spurlock-USA TODAY Sports |
Runners-up in last year's national championship game, the Auburn Tigers had high hopes coming into the season. Coming into November, it looked as though they could live up to or exceed those hopes. The Tigers started off with a dominating win over talented Arkansas. Following a blowout of San José State, Auburn traveled to Kansas State, where they earned a close and hard-fought win over the Wildcats. The Tigers crushed a good Louisiana Tech team before humiliating Louisiana State. By this point, the Tigers were undefeated and pushing towards the top spot in the polls. Fortunes turned sour after a sloppy, turnover-filled trip to Starkville, where the the Tigers fell hard to Mississippi State. The Tigers scraped by their next two opponents, South Carolina and Ole Miss, but were still in contention for their ultimate goal. Then Texas A&M strolled into town and shocked the turnover-prone Tigers. Inopportune fumbles and interceptions continued to haunt Auburn; Georgia exploited Tiger miscues and stomped AU in Athens. Auburn sleepwalked past Samford in preparation for their date with Alabama. The Tigers' effort was valiant, but the Tide made a few more critical plays and pulled away in the fourth quarter.
Wisconsin's season began with everything looking rosy for the Badgers... until the third quarter of the opening game. The Badgers surrendered a 17-point second-half-lead to LSU, eventually losing by four. Wisconsin recovered by convincingly beating three lesser teams (the best being Bowling Green), but began October with a loss to Northwestern. The Badgers turned a page and wouldn't lose again until December. The Badgers beat Illinois then destroyed their next four opponents (Maryland, Rutgers, Purdue, and Nebraska). Badger running back and Heisman-runner-up Melvin Gordon set the single-game FBS rushing record in the blowout of Nebraska (though it was broken a week afterwards). Wisconsin edged both Iowa and Minnesota over the next two weeks. The Badgers' win over the Golden Gophers clinched them a berth in the Big Ten Championship Game against Ohio State. The following game was an utter disaster for Wisconsin – the Badgers couldn't move the ball or stop the Buckeyes. Head coach Gary Andersen left for another program just a short time later.
As solid a Big Ten team Wisconsin is, Auburn appears to have the better squad. Wisconsin may have a slightly better defense (though it's hard to judge, as both teams were inconsistent defensively), but, as long as they avoid excessive turnovers, Auburn has the superior offense. Wisconsin has one of the most productive rushing attacks in the FBS... on the other hand, their passing game is hardly feared. Auburn has both one of the most effective running games and a viable pass threat. In addition, coaching chaos may play a role in this game. Auburn is missing their defensive coordinator while Wisconsin has an interim head coach (AD and former head coach Barry Alvarez). The Badgers have a history of playing tough in bowl games, but still expect Auburn to win here.
- 19 Auburn (8-4) over 18 Wisconsin (10-3), 42-20
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| Motivation may be a key factor in the match-up between the Spartans and the Bears. Evan Habeeb-USA TODAY Sports |
Michigan State did not last long among the nation's unbeaten. After winning an easy game, the Spartans traveled to Eugene to take on Oregon. For three quarters, the two teams were even. After four, the Ducks outlasted MSU and were clear victors. The Spartans soon got back on track and back to their dominant ways. Of their next six victories, only the win over Nebraska was at all competitive. In that game, the Spartans built up a big lead over the first three quarters... only to see the Cornhuskers nearly pull off a miraculous comeback. Then came the most important date of the season, the game against Ohio State. Just like the Oregon game, it was competitive for three quarters... then the Buckeyes pulled away. Michigan State released their frustration by bashing their next three opponents (Maryland, Rutgers, and Penn State) into submission. The Spartans ended their season having lost just twice (and both losses were to playoff teams).
Big 12 co-champion Baylor started their season blowing out their first five opponents. Although none of those five teams finished the regular season with a winning record, the Bears made their superiority evident. Next came TCU – the game that would define Baylor's season. The Bears overcame a 21-point fourth-quarter deficit to top the Horned Frogs on a last-second field goal. However, the Bears couldn't avoid the letdown, and were soundly defeated by West Virginia in Morgantown. This loss ultimately decided the Bears' placement in the Cotton Bowl rather than the playoffs. Baylor went on the demolish Kansas, Oklahoma, and Oklahoma State in their next three games. The Bears almost had another letdown against Texas Tech; a failed two-point conversion kept the game out of overtime. Baylor finished their season with an impressive win over Kansas State.
This bowl is one of the more difficult to predict. Baylor has a spectacular offense, perhaps the nation's best. The Bear defense is better than most in the Big 12. Michigan State plays very well on both sides of the ball. What may be missing for both teams is motivation. This could be a tremendous problem for Baylor, who had hoped to make the playoffs up until the final four were officially selected. On the other hand, the Bears may be motivated to prove their worth. The Spartans have yet to prove they can play a full four quarters against an excellent team like Baylor. Due to these factors, this game's outcome is among the most unpredictable. The more motivated team, rather than the best, may be the team that wins.
- 5 Baylor (11-1) over 8 Michigan State (10-2), 37-34
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| Only the state of Iowa separates them; despite this, Missouri and Minnesota are meeting for just the ninth time in history and the first time since 1970. Jesse Johnson-USA TODAY Sports |
The Tigers began their season with three wins that look better in retrospect than they did at the time. Missouri beat South Dakota State, a strong FCS team, in their season opener. They following this with a big win over Toledo, one of the MAC's best. The next week, they blew out UCF, a team that would go on to win their conference. Then came their most inexplicably poor performance, a four-point loss to a mediocre Indiana squad (who would only go on to win one Big Ten game all year) at home. The Tigers returned the following week to shock South Carolina in South Carolina. After two weeks of preparation, Mizzou was shut out at home by Georgia. They turned around following week to crush Florida in Gainesville, while scoring four non-offensive touchdown. The bizarre season continued, but Mizzou kept winning. They went on to beat Vanderbilt and Kentucky in close games. Then they beat Texas A&M, Tennessee, and Arkansas in closer games. By December, the Tigers had clinched a spot in the SEC Championship Game against Alabama. Mizzou played a close game through the first three quarters, but Bama pulled away in the fourth.
Minnesota built upon last season's success for another strong season. After winning their first two, the Golden Gophers fell badly against TCU (although that team would later prove to be excellent). The Gophers won their next two over San José State and Michigan. Minnesota edged Northwestern and Purdue in the following weeks. After starting the season winning six of their first seven, the Gophers lost three of their last five. Ending October, they fell again to Illinois in a close game. They following this by obliterating Iowa in Minneapolis. Next week, they lost a competitive game to Ohio State. Never to lose twice in a row, the Gophers rebounded with an impressive victory over Nebraska. The Gophers could not find the same success next week against Wisconsin, ultimately falling to the Badgers with a conference championship berth on the line.
Statistically, neither team appears dominant. Both teams have good defenses, but each is a step below the elite. The strength of each offense is the run, although neither offense is particularly fearsome. One thing each team does very well is win. More often than not, things just end up going their way. The key match-up is Minnesota's rush offense versus Missouri's rush defense. These are the most effective units of each team, and they will be going head-to-head. Missouri should be a better team and should win again on New Year's Day.
- 16 Missouri (10-3) over 25 Minnesota (8-4), 35-17
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| The Rose Bowl hosts Florida State and Oregon in the first-ever playoff game of major college football. Matt Cashore-USA TODAY Sports |
Oregon has played a better season this year than most programs ever have. After flying past a terribly overmatched South Dakota squad, the Ducks hosted Michigan State for a big-time brawl. In the end, Oregon powered past a very good Spartan team in the second half. The Ducks crushed Wyoming the next week, but injuries on the offensive line were piling up. With the line severely compromised, the Ducks could only escape Washington State with a seven-point win. The weakened Ducks would fall shortly afterwards. A scrappy and talented Arizona team arrived in Eugene hungry for another upset win over the Ducks. Oregon could not find offensive consistency and the opportunistic Wildcats came out as seven-point victors. That was the last fully competitive game the Ducks would play all season. Oregon would sail through the rest of their schedule, finishing with eight straight wins. The Ducks ran by UCLA, Washington, Cal, and Stanford before heading to Salt Lake City to take on the Utes. There, with the aid of a monumentally fortunate 99-yard fumble return, the Ducks held only a slight lead in the fourth quarter before pulling away. Two more conference wins secured the Ducks a rematch in the championship game against Arizona. Things went differently the second time around. Although the Wildcat defense held through the first quarter, things quickly got out of hand and the Ducks finished with a huge victory.
The Seminoles are the only undefeated team in the country, though it's hardly ever been easy. The defending champions have had a target on their backs all year, beginning with the season opener. Way back in August, the Noles were playing an average Oklahoma State team in Dallas. Florida State couldn't pull away, and the game's outcome was in question until the final onside kick was recovered. After beating the Citadel, star quarterback Jameis Winston was suspended and the Seminoles had to host Clemson. The Tigers controlled most of the game, but after a series of late critical mistakes by Clemson, the Noles forced overtime. FSU scored a touchdown to win it in OT. The Seminoles needed a second half comeback to overcome NC State in Raleigh the following week. After crushing two week opponents, the Seminoles were tasked with defeating Notre Dame in Tallahassee. That game could not have been closer; despite being outgained by a significant margin, the Noles won the game after an Irish touchdown was nullified by an offensive pass interference call as the clock winded out. Florida State needed another second half rally to get past Louisville in their next game. FSU beat Virginia the next week, but needed two late scores to beat Miami a week later. A field goal with less than five seconds remaining lifted Florida State past Boston College while a 94-yard interception return was the deciding score in a close home finale against Florida. FSU stayed true to form in the ACC Championship Game; the Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets had the opportunity to win, but it was Florida State that came out a two-point winner.
The offenses of both Oregon and Florida State rank among the best in the nation. Oregon is extremely productive running the ball and passing the ball. Florida State's offense leans heavily towards the pass (and interceptions have been a problem), but the Seminoles have devoted more snaps to the running game late in the season. Both defensive squads are very solid; neither team has a particular advantage in that sector. Special teams are strong on both sides (though Oregon rarely attempts field goals for their placekicker). Oregon may have the slight advantage due to their more developed rushing game and lower tendency to lose turnovers.
- 2 Oregon (12-1) over 3 Florida State (13-0), 45-38
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| Few expected the Buckeyes to be here after an early loss to Virginia Tech. Greg Bartram-USA TODAY Sports |
Another year, another great Alabama team. The Crimson Tide started the season against West Virginia, who they eventually beat in a closer-than-expected game. The Tide drowned two weak opponents before Florida came to Tuscaloosa. Turnovers plagued Alabama, but the Tide exploited Florida's ineptitude and cruised past the Gators in the second half. Alabama had two weeks to rest and prepare for their next opponent, Ole Miss. In one of the best games of the season, the Rebels came back from a seven-point fourth-quarter deficit to stun the Tide in Oxford. Perhaps Alabama was in shock, as they nearly fell again the next week, barely getting by the Razorbacks with the aid of a missed Arkansas PAT. But the Tide returned to their best the following week, obliterating Texas A&M and holding them scoreless. Bama ended October with a win over Tennessee. Next the Tide headed off to Death Valley, where they managed to surpass LSU in overtime after a low-scoring, defensively-dominated period of regulation. Alabama followed this close, defensive victory with another, this time over Mississippi State. The Tide beat an FCS team before hosting Auburn in the annual Iron Bowl. Auburn brought their best game, and even had a lead going into the fourth quarter. Unlike most previous Alabama games this season, the bout against Auburn was dominated by offenses. The Tide outscored the Tigers in the final quarter. Mizzou challenged Alabama for the SEC title, but just like the Tigers before them, they couldn't play a full, four-quarter game against Alabama.
Ohio State started their year without star quarterback Braxton Miller, who suffered a season-ending injury before the first kickoff. Replacement J. T. Barrett had a good first game against Navy, even if the Midshipmen were overmatched. He didn't fare so well in his second game. The game against Virginia Tech was a disaster... but ultimately it was Barrett's three interceptions that doomed the Buckeyes. The Buckeyes would go on to win their next 11 games after that loss; meanwhile, the Hokies would only win four more all season. Kent State, Cincinnati, Maryland, and Rutgers all fell to the Buckeye's cleaver. Penn State put up a valiant fight, only to lose in double-overtime. Illinois was squashed by the might of the Buckeyes. Michigan State combated Ohio State for most of their game, but they too fell in the end. Minnesota was competitive with OSU, but didn't have enough to win. Surprisingly, Indiana and Michigan each played three competitive quarters, but couldn't hold back Ohio State in the fourth. J. T. Barrett had transformed from scapegoat to star quarterback by the end of the season. Unfortunately, Barrett suffered a season-ending injury in the game against Michigan. In came Cardale Jones, who faced the task of beating Wisconsin in the conference championship game. To the surprise of quite possibly everyone, the Buckeyes annihilated the Badgers, shutting them and Heisman-runner-up Melvin Gordon completely down.
Both Alabama and Ohio State are extremely talented and well-coached. Both possess defenses that rank among the best in the nation. Both have balanced, versatile offenses. Right now, both teams are flawed, but certainly have the potential to be great. However, Alabama's ceiling might just be a bit higher. The Tide have passed the gauntlet of the SEC West, and are more battle-tested than any other playoff team. Experience, coaching, and talent should give Alabama the edge they need to win.
- 1 Alabama (12-1) over 4 Ohio State (12-1), 37-17
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| With both their head coaches gone, Pitt and Houston look towards temporary leadership. Charles LeClaire-USA TODAY Sports |
- Pittsburgh (6-6) over Houston (7-5), 34-27
Gator Bowl: Iowa (4-4 Big Ten West) and Tennessee (3-5 SEC East) face off for another classic SEC-Big Ten battle. The Hawkeyes have one more win, but the Volunteers played a more difficult schedule. Iowa won seven of their first ten games, though their most impressive victories during that span were over Pitt and Illinois. Four of the Hawkeyes' five defeats came to good teams (Maryland, Minnesota, Wisconsin, and Nebraska); the losses to Wisconsin and Nebraska were particularly close and heartbreaking. Iowa's worst loss was to rival Iowa State, which came early in the season. Tennessee has endured a similarly difficult season. The Vols started off with two wins over future bowl teams, Utah State and Arkansas State. They lost badly to Oklahoma in the third week. After two weeks to rest and prepare, the Volunteers nearly pulled off a stunning upset of Georgia, but were defeated by just three points. After coming home to face Florida, the Vols lost by a mere point after conceding 10 unanswered fourth-quarter points. Tennessee won four of their last seven, beating Chattanooga, South Carolina (in overtime), Kentucky, and Vanderbilt, but losing to Ole Miss, Alabama, and Missouri. Tennessee is ostensibly the more talented team, but Iowa has a history of performing well in recent bowl games. Neither team has a consistently strong or balanced offense, but both defenses are solid and skilled. The winner should exit Jacksonville with a narrow, hard-fought victory.
- Iowa (7-5) over Tennessee (6-6), 24-17
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| The Alamo Bowl will be the last postseason game before the national championship to feature two Top 25 teams. Jayne Kamin-Oncea-USA TODAY Sports |
The Wildcats won their first two games over Stephen F. Austin and Iowa State (although they needed a late touchdown to win the latter). Kansas State hosted highly-ranked Auburn next, but missed three field goals and lost by six. The Wildcats won their next five, including a shocking one-point victory over Oklahoma in Norman and a shutout win over Texas. TCU was too good for K-State, easily topping the Wildcats in their contest. The Wildcats were lucky to exit Morgantown with a win over West Virginia, but cruised to a victory against rival Kansas. K-State ended the season with a decisive loss to Baylor.
UCLA began their season with sky-high expectations. Those expectations were lowered by many after a close win over Virginia in the season opener. Next came another close win, this time against a Memphis team that would later prove itself excellent. The Bruins barely beat Texas in the following game, leaving many doubting UCLA. The Bruins finally surpassed expectations with a rout of Arizona State. UCLA followed this success with an upset loss to Utah. A fantastic Oregon team handed the Bruins another loss the next week. UCLA won their next five games, though it wasn't always easy. Mediocre Cal and Colorado teams almost found a way to upset the Bruins. UCLA earned impressive double-digit wins over Arizona, Washington, and USC. Their season ended with an unexpected 21-point defeat to Stanford.
Despite their identical records, UCLA and Kansas State vary in the methods employed to succeed. The Bruins have a balanced, but not exceptional, offense and an inconsistently average defense. The Wildcats have a good offense and a well disciplined, solid defense; however, their offense can be too reliant on the pass. UCLA may be the team with a higher potential, but Kansas State more frequently plays at or near their full potential. If UCLA has been coached an prepared properly, they should have the edge they need to win.
- 14 UCLA (9-3) over 11 Kansas State (9-3), 31-28
Cactus Bowl: Washington (4-5 Pac-12 North) meets Oklahoma State (4-5 Big 12) in Tempe for this late postseason game. Each teams struggled during their conference schedules, but both ended up with enough wins to earn a bowl invitations. The Huskies started off winning their first four (including a narrow shootout victory over Eastern Washington and a rout of Illinois), but their streak ended with a close loss to Stanford in Seattle. Their first loss began a brutal stretch of five losses over seven games. Other than Stanford, the Huskies were also defeated by Oregon, Arizona State, UCLA, and Arizona – all strong teams, although only the losses to Arizona and ASU were particularly close. The Huskies won two straight to end the season. Oklahoma State started the season with a moral victory – a narrow loss to top-ranked Florida State. This was followed by a victory on the field but a moral defeat; star quarterback J.W. Walsh suffered a season-ending injury in their blowout of Missouri State. Oklahoma State won their next three games over weak opponents with backup quarterbacks, but lost the following five against better competition. The Cowboys were not competitive in any game against the Big 12's best... until the season finale. OK State ended the regular season on a high note with an improbable upset victory over rival Oklahoma. Neither team has a balanced or reliable offense; Washington relies too heavily on the run while Oklahoma State is too reliant on their passing game. In addition, the Cowboy defense is often exploited for its many weaknesses. The Huskies, on the other hand, have one of the best defenses in the Pac-12. It's this defense that should give Washington the advantage in this game.
- Washington (8-5) over Oklahoma State (6-6), 30-20
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| The Gators will need another great performance from their secondary to combat the Pirates. Christopher Hanewinckel-USA TODAY Sports |
ECU began the year winning six of their first seven. During this stretch, the Pirates narrowly lost to South Carolina but upset Virginia Tech and North Carolina. Their played impressed voters, and the Pirates were ranked in the Top 25 entering November. Five fumbles capsized the Pirate against Temple, leaving ECU with two losses after their visit to Philadelphia. The Pirates lost their next game as well, this time in a shootout against Cincinnati. ECU temporarily righted the ship with two wins over Tulane and Tulsa, but lost their regular season finale on a last-second Hail Mary against UCF.
The Gators' season opener against Idaho was shelved until 2017 due to thunderstorm. The new season opener, against Eastern Michigan, ended with a lopsided shutout victory. Florida found their next opponent, Kentucky, far more formidable; it took three overtime periods for the Gators to down the Wildcats in the Swamp. The Gators traveled to Tuscaloosa the next week, but were no match for Alabama. Florida's offense was totally smothered by the Tide's superior defense. The Gators needed two scores in the fourth quarter to overcome Tennessee on the road. Returning home, Florida faced a vulnerable LSU team, but couldn't get it done in the end, losing a heartbreaker to the Tigers. The Gators could not immediately recover from this loss, as they handed Missouri a victory the following week, allowing an interception, fumble, kickoff, and punt for a touchdown. Inexplicably, Florida followed this abysmal performance with a resounding triumph over Georgia. The Gators won consecutive games with a victory over Vanderbilt, but lost in overtime to South Carolina the next week. This loss came after the Gators should have put the game away, costing head coach Will Muschamp his job. Muschamp remained to coach the Gators' victory over Eastern Kentucky and narrow defeat to Florida State.
The Pirates and the Gators are opposites in many respects. ECU has the nation's second most productive passing offense. Florida has one of the least productive passing attacks. Both offenses are rather average on the ground, although Florida is statistically better. The Gators have been close in many of their games this season due to their phenomenal defense. The Pirate defense is only average. The key position match-up will be East Carolina's receivers against Florida's defensive backs. These are probably the best units on each respective team. However, all things considered, the Gators have a significant talent advantage. During the regular season, Florida would have been heavily favored against the Pirates. However, now that the Gators are being led by an interim regime that may already have a foot out the door, the Pirates will almost certainly have the edge in coaching and preparation. The Pirates may also be more motivated to play in and win this bowl game. If the Gator offense can limit mistakes and if all units play near their potential, Florida should win their seventh game.
- Florida (6-5) over East Carolina (8-4), 27-20
GoDaddy Bowl: For the penultimate game of the season, we head off to Mobile to see Toledo (7-1 MAC West) play Arkansas State (5-3 Sun Belt). The Rockets lost two of their first three games, but would only lose two more all season. Three of Toledo's four losses were to Missouri, Cincinnati, and Northern Illinois – teams that would either go on to win their conference division or conference overall (the other was a seven-point loss to Iowa State). The Rockets narrowly lost to NIU on the road, a defeat that would cost them the MAC West title. Toledo's most notable wins were over Central Michigan, Western Michigan, and Bowling Green. The Red Wolves had a similar year; after dropping two of their first three, they would only suffer defeat three times again. None of Arkansas State's five losses were to teams that would finish with a losing record (those teams being Tennessee, Miami, Louisiana-Lafayette, Appalachian State, and Texas State). The Red Wolves' most impressive victory was in overtime against Utah State; their manhandling of South Alabama was their second strongest performance. Both teams possess balanced offenses with especially productive rushing attacks. Neither team has a particularly strong defense. Look for a high-scoring shootout here.
- Toledo (8-4) over Arkansas State (7-5), 52-45
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