Bowl Predictions: After Christmas

The Illini surprised many by reaching a bowl but now must
play one of Conference USA's best, Louisiana Tech.
Michael Hickey/Getty Images

Bowl season's been good but it should only get better. After Christmas we'll start seeing a lot more elite teams from power conferences and increasingly more Top 25 match-ups.

Heart of Dallas Bowl: We go to the Cotton Bowl (the stadium, that is) for the first bowl game after Christmas. There we'll see Illinois (3-5 Big Ten West) face Louisiana Tech (7-1 C-USA West). The Fighting Illini scraped by their Big Ten schedule, eventually earning six wins and bowl eligibility for the first time since 2011. That's the same year Louisiana Tech played their last bowl game. The Illini have had an up-and-down season – barely getting past Western Kentucky and Texas State, losing to Purdue, but knocking off Minnesota and Penn State. The Illini have not contested the best teams they've played (Ohio State, Wisconsin, Washington, and Nebraska) and only beat one FBS team (Northwestern) by more than one score. The injury of quarterback Wes Lunt hurt the Illini passing game, though replacement Reilly O'Toole has made plays, too. Illinois has little ability to move the ball on the ground. Louisiana Tech may have had even more highs and lows than Illinois. The Bulldogs were crushed by P5-conference powers Oklahoma and Auburn, lost inexplicably to FCS-school Northwestern State, and were heartbroken by Marshall in the Conference USA Championship Game. They also breezed through their pre-championship conference schedule, beating all but two opponent by 11 points or more. By C-USA standards, the Bulldogs have an excellent offense and a good defense. Like Illinois, Louisiana Tech leans more towards the pass than the run. Tech should be the better team.

• Louisiana Tech (8-5) over Illinois (6-6), 34-26

Quick Lane Bowl: Rutgers (3-5 Big Ten East) comes into Detroit after a surprisingly successful inaugural season in the Big Ten. Plagued by poor defensive play all season, North Carolina (4-4 ACC Coastal) is now just 6-6 after appearing in the preseason Top 25. Rutgers started the season very well, going 5-1 after losing only a tight game to Penn State. The Scarlet Knight even beat Navy in Annapolis. They then proceeded to lose four of their next five games badly to a quartet of the Big Ten's best teams (Ohio State, Nebraska, Wisconsin, and Michigan State). Wins over Indiana and Maryland gave Rutgers seven victories on the season. North Carolina only barely managed to reach a bowl, but had to earn their six wins against a fairly difficult schedule. All six of the Tar Heels' losses came against bowl teams while four of their six wins were against teams now going bowling. After beating Liberty and San Diego State, UNC dropped four straight to East Carolina, Clemson, Virginia Tech, and Notre Dame. Then came the Heels' most impressive moment of the season, a five-point victory over Georgia Tech. Carolina's last five games included blowout losses to Miami and NC State and an impressive win over Duke. Although Rutgers may have a better defense than UNC, the Tar Heel have a notably better offense than the Scarlet Knights and a better chance to win.

• North Carolina (6-6) over Rutgers (7-5), 38-34

The Wolfpack must avoid mistakes to overcome the Knights
in St. Petersburg. Rob Kinnan-USA TODAY Sports

St. Petersburg Bowl: North Carolina State (3-5 ACC Atlantic) has been one of the least consistent teams this year led by one of the least consistent quarterbacks, Jacoby Brissett. The Wolfpack's best performances of the year were a one-point win over Georgia Southern, a 12-point loss to Florida State (which was actually closer than the final score suggests), and a 28-point beatdown of rival North Carolina. NC State was soundly beaten by both Boston College and Louisville while they were totally obliterated by Clemson and Georgia Tech. UCF (7-1 American) has won nine games and part of a conference championship even though it's come against a rather weak schedule. UCF began the season with two losses to Penn State and Missouri and finished it winning nine of their final 10. Six of those wins came against teams that did not receive bowl bids while the other three were all by seven points or less. In fact, UCF was astoundingly lucky that they beat Houston and East Carolina (the former was via a late Houston fumble into the endzone; the latter was through a last-second Hail Mary). Their win over BYU was in overtime after BYU had already lost their star quarterback. UCF's third loss was their most incomprehensible – an eight-point defeat to a very poor UConn squad. Still, if fortunes continue to favor the Knights, and if their defense plays well when they have to, they should triumph again here.

• UCF (9-3) over NC State (7-5), 30-27

Military Bowl: Cincinnati (7-1 American) and Virginia Tech (3-5 ACC Coastal) will meet for the third time in a bowl game since 2008 when they play again this season. The Bearcats began the season 2-3 before reeling off seven straight wins to end the season. Their three losses all came to talented teams (Ohio State, Memphis, and Miami). Three of Cincinnati's nine wins (Toledo, East Carolina, and Houston) came against eventual bowl teams. The strength of the Bearcats is their passing offense, led by quarterback Gunner Kiel and his unusually large corps of receivers. Virginia Tech has been one of the strangest teams this year. Early this season, the Hokies downed future-playoff team Ohio State in Columbus... only to lose the very next week to East Carolina. Only Miami beat the Hokies by more than seven points. Virginia Tech also lost a bizarre double-overtime game to Wake Forrest by a score of 6-3. Needless to say, it has been a struggle moving the ball for the Virginia Tech offense. Besides Ohio State, Tech was also able to defeat bowl teams Western Michigan, North Carolina, and Duke. The Hokie defense should keep this game close, though Cincinnati should prove superior in the end.

• Cincinnati (9-3) over Virginia Tech (6-6), 27-24

Arizona State looks to win another Sun Bowl when they play
the Duke Blue Devils. Mark J. Rebilas-USA TODAY Sports

Sun Bowl: The Duke Blue Devils (5-3 ACC Coastal) take on the Arizona State Sun Devils (6-3 Pac-12 South) in the Sun Bowl. But there's more intrigue to this match-up than just the convenient overlap of names. This is also the first bowl game matching two teams near the top of their respective Power Five conference. Duke's had another good year, winning nine while only dropping three; Arizona State has the same record. The Blue Devils three losses came against Miami, Virginia Tech, and North Carolina; the loss to the Hokies was by a mere point, though Miami and UNC both handled the Blue Devils with relative ease. Duke's most impressive win by far was their six-point victory over Georgia Tech. Arizona State's had several impressive wins this year, beating USC, Stanford, Washington, Utah, and Notre Dame. On the other hand, the Sun Devils were routed by UCLA and beaten by a subpar Oregon State team. ASU dropped their season finale to rival Arizona. While Duke's strength is their disciplined defense, Arizona State's edge is their capable West Coast offense. If the Sun Devils can score, they should top their Blue counterparts in El Paso.

• 15 Arizona State (9-3) over Duke (9-3), 34-27

Independence Bowl: Miami (3-5 ACC Coastal) will arrive in Shreveport looking to end their season on a high note after a disappointing skid at the end of the regular season. Their opponent, South Carolina (3-5 SEC East), has experienced a season of general disappointment. The Gamecocks and the Hurricanes are meeting for the 16th time and only the third time outside South Florida. The Hurricanes had a promising start to the season, winning six of their first nine games. Five of these wins came by at least 12 points against bowl teams while all three losses were against respectable opponents (Louisville, Nebraska, and Georgia Tech). Then the Canes dropped a heartbreaker to rival Florida State. The wheels seemed to come off after that loss, as Miami went on to lose badly to Virginia and Pitt. The Gamecocks started the season ranked in the Top 10 before losing to Texas A&M in their season opener. Carolina won their next three (including a three-point victory over Georgia) but then lost four of the proceeding five (all to SEC foes). Each of those four losses was by seven points or less. The Gamecocks finally got a game to go their way when they beat Florida in overtime. Carolina ended their season being dominated by rival Clemson. Considering the turbulent paths of both teams' seasons, it's difficult to foresee the outcome of this game. Carolina's combination of a strong offense and a vulnerable defense makes them prone close games. Whatever team is better coached and prepared will likely win this game.

• South Carolina (6-6) over Miami (6-6), 45-42

The season's been a struggle for Penn State but the Nittany
Lions can go out winners in Yankee Stadium.
Andrew Weber-USA TODAY Sports

Pinstripe Bowl: The Bronx hopes to host yet another exciting college football game with Boston College (4-4 ACC Atlantic) and Penn State (2-6 Big Ten East) coming to the Big Apple. The Eagles upset USC early in the season and went on to scare most of the ACC's best competition (though, in the end, the Eagles would always fall short). BC plays excellent defense while duel-threat quarterback Tyler Murphy has proven difficult to stop. The scrappy Eagles lost by a mere 10 points combined to Colorado State, Clemson, and Florida State. Penn State, meanwhile, began their season 4-0 before losing six of their last eight. After being crushed by Northwestern, the Nittany Lions lost three consecutive heartbreakers to Michigan, Ohio State (in double-overtime), and Maryland. Wins over Indiana and Temple secured bowl eligibility for Penn State, but they could only manage a 12th place finish in the Big Ten by the season's end. Strong defense kept the Nittany Lions in most games, but a dysfunctional offense proved their downfall all too often. The Eagles should make a few more offensive plays than the Nittany Lions – enough to win them this game.

• Boston College (7-5) over Penn State (6-6), 23-16

Holiday Bowl: Nebraska (5-3 Big Ten West) and USC (6-3 Pac-12 South), two of college football's legendary programs, meet for the fifth time in history this year in San Diego. Nebraska finds itself without head coach Bo Pelini, who was dismissed at the end of the season despite leading his team to nine wins. The Cornhuskers won eight of their first nine (the lone loss was by five points against Michigan State) before being embarrassed by division rival Wisconsin. The Huskers lost their next game to Minnesota and fell out of the conference championship race. Nebraska beat five bowl teams, but losing their three biggest games left many fans disappointed. USC also found themselves losing most big games this season. Notably, the Trojans conquered Stanford, Arizona, and Notre Dame, but fell short against Boston College, Arizona State, Utah, and UCLA. Both teams have talented defenses and productive offenses. Where they differ most is offensive style; USC utilizes a pass-heavy attack while Nebraska is dependent on their ground game. USC should exploit the current turmoil in the Nebraska program to earn their ninth win.

• 24 USC (8-4) over Nebraska (9-3), 38-24

The Aggies have been up and down this season; they'll need
another good game to topple the Mountaineers.
Shanna Lockwood-USA TODAY Sports

Liberty Bowl: Expect plenty of points when Texas A&M (3-5 SEC West) plays West Virginia (5-4 Big 12) in Memphis. Each team possesses one of the nation's most productive passing offenses... their defenses are rarely so effective. The Aggies won their first five games, but lost five of their final seven. West Virginia started off winning six of their first eight before losing three of their last four. A&M was at their best when they upset South Carolina, Arkansas, and Auburn; their lowest moment was a 59-point shellacking against Alabama. The Aggies ended their season with two tough losses to Missouri and LSU. The Mountaineers began their season with a closer-than-expected loss to Alabama. This began a trend for the Mountaineers of losing big games. The one instance in which WVU broke this trend was their shocking 14-point upset of Baylor. West Virginia fell just short of upending TCU and Kansas State. The winner of this game should be the team that throws fewer interceptions.

• Texas A&M (7-5) over West Virginia (7-5), 41-38

Russell Athletic Bowl: The newly renovated Citrus Bowl Stadium hosts two of the nation's best units in its first bowl game of the year. Clemson (6-2 ACC Atlantic) boasts one of the best defenses in college football. Oklahoma (5-4 Big 12), on the other hand, has one of the best offenses. The Tigers' three losses all came to excellent teams (Georgia, Florida State, and Georgia Tech). Clemson was without their star freshman quarterback Deshaun Watson for much of the season, but their defense kept them competitive in every game not against a team from Georgia. Oklahoma has their own freshman phenom, halfback Samaje Perine. Perine holds the FBS record for most rushing yards in a single game (set against Kansas earlier this year). The Sooners notably defeated Louisiana Tech, Tennessee, West Virginia, and Texas. However, they lost against all their best competitors. Against TCU and Kansas State they fell just short; they were decimated by Baylor. Both Watson and Perine are expected to miss this game due to injury; this should greatly affect the offensive dynamics of both teams. Clemson, whose strength is their defense, should be more capable of winning this game shorthanded.

• 17 Clemson (9-3) over Oklahoma (8-4), 27-23

Arkansas and Texas renew an old rivalry in this year's Texas
Bowl. Nelson Chenault-USA TODAY Sports

Texas Bowl: Two old Southwest Conference rivals meet again this year in Houston. Arkansas (2-6 SEC West) has what some consider to be the best 6-6 team in history. The Razorbacks were beaten soundly by Auburn and Georgia. However, their narrow losses to Texas A&M, Alabama, Mississippi State, and Missouri brought them praise in spite of their defeats. In addition, the Hogs blasted future-MAC champion Northern Illinois and shutout both LSU and Ole Miss. Texas (5-4 Big 12) has seen improvement over teams of recent years. The Longhorns played their best ball this year stampeding West Virginia in Austin. They came close, but couldn't pull off their upset bids of UCLA and Oklahoma. Usually, Texas lost badly to their best opponents. This year, expect the pork to be of higher quality than the beef in the Texas Bowl.

• Arkansas (6-6) over Texas (6-6), 37-13

Music City Bowl: After a late-season tailspin, Notre Dame finds themselves facing LSU (4-4 SEC West) in Nashville. An independent, the Fighting Irish began the season winning their first six games. The Irish beat Stanford and North Carolina at the end of this run. However, their season turned sour after a heartbreaking loss to Florida State in Tallahassee. After squeaking by Navy, the Irish lost their final four games. Notre Dame was shocked by Northwestern in overtime and narrowly beaten by Louisville, but were decisively bested by Arizona State and USC. LSU won seven of their first nine. The Tigers beat Wisconsin, Florida, and Ole Miss by a combined 10 points during this stretch, but also fell to Mississippi State and Auburn. After losing in overtime to Alabama, the Tigers were shut out by Arkansas. They ended their season with a narrow victory over Texas A&M. The Tigers have one of the country's best defenses, and should keep the Irish offense in check.

• 23 LSU (8-4) over Notre Dame (7-5), 38-21

A battle-tested Louisville team challenges Georgia in the
Belk Bowl. Matt Cashore-USA TODAY Sports

Belk Bowl: Two of the SEC and ACC's finest square off when Georgia (6-2 SEC East) plays Louisville (5-3 ACC Atlantic). The Bulldogs had their moments this year – crushing Clemson, Missouri, Arkansas, and Auburn – but one can't help feel they could have been more had star halfback Todd Gurley not been injured. The Dawgs narrowly lost to both South Carolina and Georgia Tech, but were flattened by Florida. These three losses kept a promising team out of the playoff picture. Louisville has been impressive in their inaugural ACC season. The Cardinals destroyed Miami and Boston College while suffering close losses to Virginia, Clemson, and Florida State. The Cards also downed NC State and Notre Dame. Both teams play excellent defense. Louisville has a good offense, too, but Georgia's is even better. If Georgia can find enough motivation, they should be the superior team and exit Charlotte with a victory.

• 13 Georgia (9-3) over 21 Louisville (9-3), 38-31

Foster Farms Bowl: Maryland (4-4 Big Ten East) travels westward to face Stanford (5-4 Pac-12 North) in the last bowl before New Year's Eve. The Terrapins surprised some earning bowl eligibility in their first year as a Big Ten team. The Terps won seven games, but only twice did they beat teams that would also go on to earn bowl invitations (Iowa and Penn State). Maryland lost close games to both West Virginia and Rutgers, but were routed by the best Big Ten competitors. Stanford hasn't had the most adept offense this year... luckily for them, their defense has kept most games within reach. The Cardinal lost games to USC, Notre Dame, and Utah by three points each. They also lost to Arizona State and, like most teams, badly to Oregon. The pièce de résistance for Stanford came in their season finale, when the Cardinal demolished UCLA in Pasadena. Ultimately, the Cardinal should win this game through good defense.

• Stanford (7-5) over Maryland (7-5), 21-14