Wednesday, December 12, 2018

Bowl Predictions: 2018-19

As usual, this year I'll be taking a swing at predicting this season's bowl games. There's sure to be some surprises and upsets, so you'll just have to watch to see how well it goes. You can follow my predictions live at ESPN's Bowl Mania.

Saturday, December 15
  • Cure Bowl: Tulane (6-6) over Louisiana (7-6)
  • New Mexico Bowl: Utah State (10-2) over North Texas (9-3)
  • Las Vegas Bowl: 21 Fresno State (11-2) over Arizona State (7-5)
  • Camellia Bowl: Georgia Southern (9-3) over Eastern Michigan (7-5)
  • New Orleans Bowl: Appalachian State (10-2) over Middle Tennessee (8-5)
Tuesday, December 18
  • Boca Raton Bowl: UAB (10-3) over Northern Illinois (8-5)
Wednesday, December 19
  • Frisco Bowl: San Diego State (7-5) over Ohio (8-4)
Thursday, December 20
  • Gasparilla Bowl: Marshall (8-4) over South Florida (7-5)
Friday, December 21
  • Bahamas Bowl: FIU (8-4) over Toledo (7-5)
  • Potato Bowl: BYU (6-6) over Western Michigan (7-5)
Saturday, December 22
  • Birmingham Bowl: Wake Forest (6-6) over Memphis (8-5)
  • Armed Forces Bowl: Army (10-2) over Houston (8-4)
  • Dollar General Bowl: Troy (9-3) over Buffalo (10-3)
  • Hawaiʻi Bowl: Hawaiʻi (8-5) over Louisiana Tech (7-5)
Wednesday, December 26
  • First Responder Bowl: 25 Boise State (10-3) over Boston College (7-5)
  • Quick Lane Bowl: Minnesota (6-6) over Georgia Tech (7-5)
  • Cheez-It Bowl: California (7-5) over TCU (6-6)
Thursday, December 27
  • Independence Bowl: Duke (7-5) over Temple (8-4)
  • Pinstripe Bowl: Wisconsin (7-5) over Miami (7-5)
  • Texas Bowl: Vanderbilt (6-6) over Baylor (6-6)
Friday, December 28
  • Music City Bowl: Auburn (7-5) over Purdue (6-6)
  • Camping World Bowl: 20 Syracuse (9-3) over 16 West Virginia (8-3)
  • Alamo Bowl: 13 Washington State (10-2) over 24 Iowa State (8-4)
Saturday, December 29
  • Peach Bowl: 10 Florida (9-3) over 7 Michigan (10-2)
  • Belk Bowl: South Carolina (7-5) over Virginia (7-5)
  • Arizona Bowl: Nevada (7-5) over Arkansas State (8-4)
  • Cotton Bowl: 2 Clemson (13-0) over 3 Notre Dame (12-0)
  • Orange Bowl: 1 Alabama (13-0) over 4 Oklahoma (12-1)
Monday, December 31
  • Military Bowl: Cincinnati (10-2) over Virginia Tech (6-6)
  • Sun Bowl: Stanford (8-4) over Pittsburgh (7-6)
  • Redbox Bowl: Oregon (8-4) over Michigan State (7-5)
  • Liberty Bowl: 23 Missouri (8-4) over Oklahoma State (6-6)
  • Holiday Bowl: 17 Utah (9-4) over 22 Northwestern (8-5)
  • Gator Bowl: 19 Texas A&M (8-4) over North Carolina State (9-3)
Tuesday, January 1
  • Outback Bowl: 18 Mississippi State (8-4) over Iowa (8-4)
  • Citrus Bowl: 12 Penn State (9-3) over 14 Kentucky (9-3)
  • Fiesta Bowl: 11 LSU (9-3) over 8 UCF (12-0)
  • Rose Bowl: 6 Ohio State (12-1) over 9 Washington (10-3)
  • Sugar Bowl: 5 Georgia (11-2) over 15 Texas (9-4)
Monday, January 7
  • National Championship: 1 Alabama (14-0) over 2 Clemson (14-0)
Representing /u/BullAlligator on /r/FloridaGators

Thursday, September 6, 2018

Gator Statistics: Conference and In-State Rivals

Florida begins its SEC schedule this weekend, so the table of statistics has been updated to accommodate for the results of the 2017 season.



Opponent Games Wins Losses Ties Win % First Meeting Last Meeting
Georgia
95
43
50
2
0.463
1915
2017
Auburn
83
38
43
2
0.470
1912
2011
Kentucky
68
51
17
0
0.750
1917
2017
LSU
64
32
29
3
0.523
1937
2017
Florida
State
62
34
26
2
0.565
1958
2017
Miami
55
26
29
0
0.473
1938
2013
Mississippi
State
54
33
19
2
0.630
1923
2010
Vanderbilt
51
39
10
2
0.784
1945
2017
Tennessee
47
27
20
0
0.574
1916
2017
Alabama
40
14
26
0
0.350
1916
2016
South
Carolina
38
26
9
3
0.724
1911
2017
Georgia
Tech
38
9
23
6
0.316
1912
1981
Mississippi
24
11
12
1
0.479
1926
2015
Tulane
21
13
6
2
0.667
1915
1984
Arkansas
11
9
2
0
0.818
1982
2016
Missouri
7
3
4
0
0.429
1966
2017

Texas

A&M
4
2
2
0
0.500
1962
2017

Florida

Atlantic
3
3
0
0
1.000
2007
2015
UCF
2
2
0
0
1.000
1999
2006

South

Florida
1
1
0
0
1.000
2010
2010
FIU
1
1
0
0
1.000
2009
2009
  • Starting from the top of the table, one notices Georgia is the Gators' most frequent opponent. Florida and Georgia have met 95 times between 1915 and today, and have been playing annually every year since 1926 (excluding two years during World War II, when UF suspended its football program). Georgia has defeated Florida more than any other of the Gators' opponents, although since 1950 UF has won 38 contests against UGA's 29 and one tie.
  • But perhaps Georgia should not be considered Florida's oldest rival. The first game against Auburn was played in 1912. Except for three years during the early Forties, the Gators and Tigers played every year from 1927 to 2002. When the annual UF-AU game was terminated after the 2002 season, Florida had played Auburn and Georgia 80 times each. In addition, Auburn is the closest SEC university to Gainesville. Auburn will still have played Florida more frequently than their arch-nemesis, Alabama, until they meet again this November.
  • Kentucky has played Florida more than anyone besides UGA and Auburn... this may be surprising considering the distance between Lexington and Gainesville. Indeed, for many years (1933 to 1992) UK was the farthest conference opponent from UF. Kentucky was also the northernmost SEC school (now Missouri), while Florida is the southernmost. Today, only Arkansas, Missouri, and Texas A&M are farther than Lexington. Nonetheless, they have played every year since 1967. This series has been terribly lopsided in the last half-century; since the teams began playing annually, Florida has won 46 times while Kentucky's won five.
  • Louisiana State is the Gators' most frequent opponent currently in the SEC's West division and still playing Florida annually. They had never played each other until both teams joined the SEC, but have played fairly regularly since 1953 (annually since 1971). When the conference split into East and West, it was decided that Florida would still play two western teams annually. While the Auburn choice was obvious (it was an old and competitive rivalry), LSU was neither the Gators' first- nor second-most frequently played western team. As a matter of fact, they were third, but that will be explained farther down. Nonetheless, the two southernmost schools in the SEC seem apt rivals, as the series is among the most competitive in the conference.
  • Not surprisingly, Florida State is the most frequent non-conference rival of the Gators. The game has been played annually since its inception in 1958. The two North Florida schools share an intertwined history that traces back the Seminary Act of 1851, while the Buckman Act of 1905 established the modern campuses of both institutions. Florida State has played each the Gators and the Miami Hurricanes 62 times. Although the Seminoles and the Hurricanes first met in 1951, they did not start annual play until 1969. That series is led by Miami 32-30.
  • Miami is the most frequent non-conference opponent that Florida no longer plays annually. Opinion among Gator fans is split as to whether this series or that with Auburn is the most unfortunate casualty of scheduling changes. Other than two years during the war, the Gators and the 'Canes played every year from 1938 to 1987. When the UF athletic department decided to cut its number of annual in-state opponents from two to one, it was decided that Florida State would be the one to remain. By that time, Florida State, the other large public university in North Florida, had displaced the smaller private school in South Florida as the Gators' #1 in-state rival.
  • When the conference split in 1992, the Gators needed two western schools to play annually. Auburn was the first, but who would be the second? Surprisingly, before the split Florida had played Mississippi State more frequently than any other western opponent besides Auburn (48 times to LSU's 39). However, that series had been far less competitive to that point (Florida had led it 30-16-2). The decision for Florida and LSU, whose series at the time was led by LSU 18-17-3, to play annually was made partially in the interest of balancing and competitiveness. Ironically, the series between UF and MSU has been split an even 3-3 while Florida leads LSU 15-11 since the divisional schism.
  • Of all series between current annual opponents, that with Vanderbilt is the most lopsided. It was played somewhat infrequently until the SEC East division was created in 1992, though at the time Florida only led 14-9-2. Florida has dominated since then, with 25 wins to Vanderbilt's single victory.
  • Although they first met in 1916, Florida and Tennessee have only been playing each other annually since 1990. Tennessee had previously dominated the series, though that changed after Tennessee-native-son-but-Gator-alum Steve Spurrier took the helm as Gator head coach. Florida has led 21-7 since the day Spurrier was hired. The series peaked in intensity during the 1990s, when both teams battled for domination of the SEC East.
  • Alabama has played Florida on 40 occasions. The Gators and the Crimson Tide have played infrequently since first facing off in 1916. Of their 40 meetings, nine have been SEC Championship games. In such games, the Tide lead with five wins to Florida's four. The Gators have a lower winning percentage against Alabama, the traditional hegemon of the conference, than they have against any other remaining SEC member.
  • Before South Carolina joined the SEC in 1992, they had only played the Gators on 12 occasions (and not since 1964), although their initial contest, a 6-6 draw in 1911, was Florida's first against any opponent that would later become a member of the SEC. Before the expansion, the Gators had led the series 6-3-3, but since have led 20-6. However, since Steve Spurrier was given the reins at South Carolina in 2005 (and later replaced by Will Muschamp, another former Florida head coach, in 2016), Florida has held only a slight 7-6 lead over Carolina.
  • It may surprise many that Florida has played Georgia Tech so frequently. As a matter of fact, the Yellow Jackets have played the Gators 38 times – as many or more times than five modern members of the SEC! However, the Gators did play Georgia Tech quite regularly from 1929 until the Jackets left the SEC after 1963. This is also the most lopsided series against the Gators of any opponent they have played more than ten times. The Orange and Blue only triumphed on nine occasions in 38 attempts against the Yellow Jackets. Had that series continued, one would imagine, that trend probably would have reversed. The Gators have not met the Yellow Jackets on the gridiron since a 27-6 triumph in 1981.
  • Despite both being charter members of the SEC, Florida and Mississippi have only met 24 times. Since first playing in 1926, the Gators and the Rebels have only played more than two consecutive years on one occasion (1944-1948). As of the most recent conference alignment, this is unlikely to change any time soon. The Gators have also defeated Ole Miss less frequently than any other charter member of the SEC still a member of the conference.
  • Like Georgia Tech, Tulane was once a member of the SEC and thus have some history playing the Gators. Until 1958, the Green Wave actually led the series with Florida 6-2-2. However, in 1958 the Gators won for the first time in 36 years and have not lost since. Since Tulane left the conference after 1966, they have only played Florida five times (the last being a 63-21 Gator victory in 1984).
  • Florida and Arkansas have played on 11 occasions – the first was in Houston for the Bluebonnet Bowl while two others were in Atlanta for the SEC Championship. Arkansas's two wins came in the 1982 Bluebonnet Bowl and the most recent competition in Fayetteville. Thus, this is the most lopsided series between Florida and any of their SEC opponents.
  • Missouri has only played the Gators seven times, though they are currently scheduled to play on an annual basis. The Tigers won the first match-up, the 1966 Sugar Bowl, despite a furious comeback-attempt led by quarterback Steve Spurrier. Since Missouri joined the conference in 2012, Florida and Missouri have split the series with three wins each.
  • Florida has only played Texas A&M four times, less than any other conference opponent. As members of different SEC divisions, they only play infrequently. The first game was played in 1962 and won handily by the Gators in Gainesville. The second game was the January 1977 Sun Bowl in El Paso. That game was won by the Aggies. The two opponents have each defeated the other once (at the other's stadium) since Texas A&M joined the SEC in 2012.
  • The Gators have played Florida Atlantic three times and UCF twice; they have only played South Florida and FIU once each. While generally competitive baseball series, the Gators have never lost to one of the four newer in-state programs on the gridiron. Florida Atlantic came close to taking down the Gators in 2015, when it took overtime for the Gators to put away the Owls in the Swamp.
  • Not included in the table above but also of note: Florida leads Sewanee (another charter member of the SEC who left in 1940 and now play in Division III) in their series, 7-2-0; UF leads Florida A&M 1-0-0, Florida Southern 13-1-0, Rollins 13-2-1, Stetson 15-2-2, and Tampa 5-0-0.