Thursday, October 29, 2015

Saturday Predictions: Week 9

West Virginia will need a great team performance in order to
upset TCU tonight. The last three games in the series have
been decided by a total of five points. AP Photo/Rod Aydelotte
All teams have now completed at least half of their regular schedule as we now enter the meat of conference play. The fate of the contenders will be decided in the upcoming month. This week's action starts tonight when North Carolina takes on Pitt at Heinz Field. Both teams have identical 6-1 records and compete in the ACC's Coastal Division. Pitt has won all four of their conference games while UNC has won all three of theirs. Since losing their third game to unbeaten Iowa, Pitt has skated by with four wins, all by seven points or less. North Carolina has been somewhat more impressive since losing their opener to South Carolina (in a game they likely should have won). The winner will gain a major advantage in the ACC title race.

Later on, West Virginia will meet TCU again for a Big 12 battle. TCU's had several weaknesses exposed this year, although West Virginia might not be capable of exploiting them. Yet, the Mountaineers always seem to pull an upset at some point in the season, so keep an eye on this game. Around the time UNC and Pitt should be finishing, Oregon and Arizona State should get underway in Tempe. Both teams began the year ranked, with high hopes for a conference title or playoff berth. Alas, the season hasn't gone as planned, and both teams now sit at 4-3. Both teams will be desperate to avoid falling to .500 here.

We'll have four games between FBS teams on Friday, although the most interesting game will be found in the Ivy League. Undefeated Dartmouth plays undefeated Harvard under the lights in Cambridge. The Crimsons have won two consecutive Ivy League titles and have been the most consistently successful Ivy team for last 15 years. So far, this season hasn't been any different, with Harvard beating their opponents by an average score of 44-8. But Dartmouth seems to have improved upon last year's success. They've dominated their schedule before slipping by Columbia last Saturday. 
The Big Green will be looking to end an 11-game losing streak to the Crimsons this season. It's rare for two Ivy League teams to be ranked in the FCS Top 25, but Harvard is #15 and Dartmouth is #22. Either team will likely clinch at least a share of the conference title with a win here.

Saturday begins with the UCF Knights and the Cincinnati Bearcats kicking off at noon. The winless Knights should find it difficult to turn things around in Nippert Stadium. South Florida will also play Navy at midday. The Bulls will have their work cut out for them against the Midshipmen, who have only met their match this season against Notre Dame.

Ole Miss travels to Auburn to take on Auburn in an SEC West showdown. Auburn will look to rebound from last week's quadruple-overtime loss, while Ole Miss will seek to maintain a high level of defensive play. The Tigers could pull the upset if their defense exploits the weaknesses of Ole Miss's run game. Florida State will look to recover from last Saturday's heartbreak with a home outing versus Syracuse. The Orange have suffered from a string of injuries and inconsistent offensive output. The Seminole defense should be able frustrate the Orange offense and keep them to a low score.

Cal will have a hard time against USC if the Trojans play as
well as they did last Saturday. Gary A. Vasquez-USA TODAY Sports
Two Golden State schools face off when USC arrives in Berkeley. Cal's lost two consecutive games, the most recent in rather embarrassing fashion. The Trojans, meanwhile, are coming off their best showing of the year. Many expect a shootout, although the defenses might do better than the experts think. On the opposite side of the country, Clemson goes against NC State in Raleigh. The Tigers have won 10 of the last 11 in this rivalry, and will be favored heavily to win again this year. The Wolfpack need to pass the ball more efficiently if they hope to produce any miraculous upsets Saturday afternoon.

Once again, Jacksonville hosts the annual Florida-Georgia game. This year, Georgia enters the contest with two losses while Florida has just one. The Gators are favored by a very slight margin, although in recent history the underdog has often left this game victorious. Earlier this season, Georgia's defense has been exploited by the rushing attacks of Alabama and Tennessee; Florida lacks consistency in the ground attack, and may not be able to duplicate those teams' successes. The Florida defense, meanwhile, has been hard to move against for any team. The Bulldogs' best bet may be the power run game, despite losing workhorse running back Nick Chubb to injury earlier this season. Still, employing their second-string backs may be a better option than choosing to throw much against the vaunted Gator pass defense.

The Shula Bowl returns to Boca Raton this Saturday. So far, 2015 has been an almost complete disaster for Florida Atlantic, who have won just once this season. FIU has fared much better, winning four of their eight games. The Owls could salvage something from this season with an upset win over their rivals, while the Panthers need this victory to aid their chances at becoming bowl eligible. The mistake-prone Owls will need to sharpen their execution if they hope to win their 10th game in 15 contests against FIU. Also in the afternoon, Oklahoma State will meet Texas Tech in Lubbock. The Red Raiders had once dominated this series, but the Cowboys have won the last six and will be favored again this Saturday. You can expect a high scoring shootout between these two trigger-happy schools. 

Look for a few interesting games to begin after night falls on the East Coast. One of the SEC's least respected schools will face one of the American's best when Vanderbilt plays Houston. Houston should be the better team, although Vandy's defense may prove to be one of the best the Cougars have yet seen. Kentucky hosts Tennessee in Lexington, eager to improve on last week's poor outing. The Wildcats' air raid offense has been effectively defended by their last few opponents, and look for Tennessee's defense to frustrate the Cats yet again. The Volunteers face the prospects of an eight-win regular season if they find a win here.

Traditional wisdom would suggest that Washington State's air
raid offense is a bad matchup against Stanford's disciplined
defense and powerful ground attack. But one can never be too
sure of much in college football. Kyle Terada-USA TODAY Sports
At eight o'clock, Notre Dame will face Temple in front of a sold-out crowd in Philadelphia. The Owls are unbeaten while the Irish have just a single loss. Notre Dame is undoubtedly one of college football's most successful and privileged programs. Temple, meanwhile, is one of it's most downtrodden, having only produced five winning seasons since 1980. Last decade, the Owls were infamously ejected from the Big East Conference for failing to remain competitive. Thus the tremendous intrigue in this matchup, as Temple is 7-0 and ranked in the Top 25. However, it is almost certain that the Fighting Irish will be the most difficult opponent yet for the Owls. Temple's defense has been solid this season, and will need another good performance against Notre Dame. Additionally, they may need to force mistakes from the Irish offense in order to remain competitive.

Finally, the night will end with a few games out west. The most interesting of these games will be held in Pullman, Washington. There, Washington State will host Stanford in a battle for control of the Pac-12 North. The Cougars are 5-2 (3-1 in conference), but are the only team from the Pac-12 that has not been defeated by more than a touchdown this season (although they have lost to Portland State, an FCS team). Stanford now looks like the favorite to win the conference and will be a solid favorite to win against Wazzu, having won their last seven games against the Cougars. Yet, many are optimistic that WSU and their high-flying offense can spark an upset in the Palouse.

State of Florida:
  • 17 Florida State (6-1) over Syracuse (3-4), 31-20
  • Navy (5-1) over South Florida (4-3), 31-24
  • Cincinnati (4-3) over UCF (0-8), 45-13
  • FIU (4-4) over Florida Atlantic (1-6), 38-21
  • 11 Florida (6-1) over Georgia (5-2), 24-13
  • 22 Duke (6-1) over Miami (4-3), 31-17
Southeastern Conference:
  • 19 Mississippi (6-2) over Auburn (4-3), 34-27
  • Texas A&M (5-2) over South Carolina (3-4), 31-14
  • Arkansas (3-4) over Tennessee-Martin (4-2), 59-10
  • 18 Houston (7-0) over Vanderbilt (3-4), 24-14
  • Tennessee (3-4) over Kentucky (4-3), 35-28
  • 7 Alabama (7-1)BYE
  • 4 LSU (7-0)BYE
  • 25 Mississippi State (6-2)BYE
  • Missouri (4-4)BYE
Top 25:
  • 3 Clemson (7-0) over North Carolina State (5-2), 30-20
  • 5 TCU (7-0) over West Virginia (3-3), 49-42
  • 8 Stanford (6-1) over Washington State (5-2), 38-24
  • 9 Notre Dame (6-1) over 21 Temple (7-0), 27-20
  • 10 Iowa (7-0) over Maryland (2-5), 38-17
  • 12 Oklahoma State (7-0) over Texas Tech (5-3), 45-42
  • 13 Utah (6-1) over Oregon State (2-5), 35-17
  • 14 Oklahoma (6-1) over Kansas (0-7), 62-7
  • 15 Michigan (5-2) over Minnesota (4-3), 31-6
  • 16 Memphis (7-0) over Tulane (2-5), 42-28
  • North Carolina (6-1) over 23 Pittsburgh (6-1), 24-21
  • 24 UCLA (5-2) over Colorado (4-4), 42-20
  • 1 Ohio State (8-0), BYE
  • 2 Baylor (7-0)BYE
  • 6 Michigan State (8-0)BYE
  • 20 Toledo (7-0)BYE

Wednesday, October 28, 2015

Know Your Opponent: Georgia

Before 1952, Georgia had won 23 of 29 games against Florida.
Head coach Bob Woodruff started to turn things around for the
Gators, winning the '52 contest 30-0. Since Woodruff began
his third year, Florida has held a 36-26-1 advantage in the
series (incidentally, this aligns with the date Florida's
population surpassed Georgia's). The Seminole
This Halloween, the Gators play their oldest rival, the Bulldogs of the University of Georgia. As is tradition in the rivalry, the Gators and Bulldogs will play at a neutral location in Jacksonville, Florida. The Georgia state legislature began preparing for the establishment of a state university in 1785, shortly after the end of the Revolutionary War. However, it wasn't until 1799 that the board of trustees settled upon where to build the future school; it was decided that the university would be developed on the western bank of the North Oconee River. The first classes at Franklin College (named in honor of Benjamin Franklin) were held in 1801 while the town that grew around the young school was named Athens (after the city of Plato and Aristotle). The University of Georgia became the first state-chartered university in the United States. The university now enrolls over 35,000 students and almost 27,000 undergrads. Georgia’s school colors are red and black.

The Georgia Bulldogs possess one of the oldest and most successful traditions in the history of college football. Georgia's first team was fielded in 1892. The teams were simply known as the "Red and Black" until 1920, when the nickname "Bulldogs" was adopted. The bulldog had been a symbol of Georgia football since the turn of the century, anecdotally a tribute to Yale alumnus and UGA founder Abraham Baldwin. Georgia was a founding member of the Southern Conference in 1921 and later, in 1933, was a charter member of the Southeastern Conference. Georgia has won 12 SEC championships (behind only Alabama and Tennessee), winning its first in 1942 and its most recent in 2005. The Bulldogs play home games “between the hedges” in Sanford Stadium, which can seat around 93,000 fans.

Georgia claims two national championships, although only one was awarded by the AP. Despite losing 27-13 to Auburn late in the season, the 1942 Bulldogs were selected as national champion by several polling services (the AP chose Ohio State that season). Unlike many other teams, Georgia had gotten by with relatively few players enlisting or being drafted before the 1942 season. As a result, Georgia made short work of many opponents on their way to an 11-1 record; notably, the Bulldogs bowled over the war-depleted Florida Gators by a score of 75-0 (the largest margin of defeat in the history of the series). The 1980 national title squad finished its season with a perfect 12-0 record and a victory over Notre Dame in the Sugar Bowl. Earlier in the season, playing Florida, the Bulldogs were on their own seven-yard-line and trailing the Gators 21-20 with time running out. Suddenly, Georgia’s quarterback found receiver Lindsay Scott wide open near the 25-yard-line. Scott improbably managed to sprint past Florida’s defenders, completing the 93-yard play, and winning the game for Georgia, 26-21. Georgia has produced two Heisman winners, Frank Sinkwich in 1942 and Herschel Walker in 1982; both were star halfbacks for Georgia's national champion teams. Sinkwich was an outstanding ballplayer and the first ever Heisman winner from a Southern school, but Walker was a sensation. Over his three year career, he ran for 5,259 rushing yards, won three SEC titles, and lost just three games. Never have the Bulldogs ever enjoyed a greater three-year stretch than that with Herschel Walker.

Walker's coach was none other than Vince Dooley, the greatest head coach the Bulldogs ever had. A former quarterback for rival Auburn, Dooley became the longest-tenured and winningest head coach to ever serve the Red and Black. In his 25 seasons at Georgia (1964–1988), the Bulldogs went 201-77-10, won at least part of six SEC titles (1966, 1968, 1976, 1980, 1981, 1982), and captured the consensus national championship in 1980. Dooley led 20 teams to a bowl game and had just one losing season (1977).

Coming into the game with a three-game losing streak
against a Georgia team favored by two touchdowns, no one
expected the 2014 game to turn out as it did. A shocked crowd
of over 83,000 watched the Gators run roughshod over the
Bulldogs, rushing for 418 yards while passing for only 27 in
route to a 38-20 triumph
BRANT SANDERLIN / AJC
Before Dooley arrived in Athens, Georgia Tech had led their series against the Bulldogs 27-26-5; he turned the tide in the rivalry, posting a 19-6 record against the Yellow Jackets. For this Dooley is most fondly remembered by Georgia fans, as Tech ranks among the Bulldogs' most hated rivals (the moniker for the series is "Clean, Old-Fashioned Hate"). The in-state rivalry is highly contentious throughout Georgia and particularly in the city of Atlanta. Despite Georgia Tech being located within the city, Yellow Jacket fans are outnumbered by Georgia fans even there. Georgia and Georgia Tech have met in 109 contests, first in 1893 and every year since 1925 (Georgia currently leads the series 64-40-5). However, the Jackets are not the Bulldogs' oldest rival. That distinction belongs to Auburn, as the two school share the Deep South's Oldest Rivalry. Georgia and Auburn first played in 1892 and have met almost every year since. Excluding three years during the World Wars, the Bulldogs and the Tigers have played annually since 1898 in a total of 118 contests. The rivalry has been extremely competitive throughout history; today, each team has 55 wins against the other while eight games have ended in ties.

The Gators and Bulldogs first met on the gridiron in 1915 and have played almost every year since (annually since 1926, barring the war year of 1943). Florida and Georgia have played a total of 92 games against one another; Georgia is Florida’s most frequently played opponent while Florida is Georgia’s third most frequent opponent (after Auburn and Georgia Tech). For many fans of both schools, this is their team's most important rivalry. Georgia leads the series with 49 wins, while Florida has 41 victories and two games ended in draws. The rivalry was dominated by Georgia throughout its first 75 years. By 1989, Georgia was leading this series with a commanding 43 wins and only 22 losses. However, in the succeeding two decades, Georgia would only win three games to Florida’s 17. Steve Spurrier lost just one game to Georgia during his 12-year tenure as Florida head coach (the next two coaches, Zook and Meyer, would also lose just one game each to the Dawgs). Will Muschamp matched the combined loss total of his three predecessors, losing his first three games against his alma mater, but won his last game against Georgia in a shocking upset.

The Florida-Georgia rivalry is among the few in major college football to be traditionally played at a neutral site. On every occasion except twice since 1933, the Gators and Bulldogs have met in Jacksonville, Florida (the exceptions being 1994 and 1995, when the new stadium was being built in Jacksonville). The rivalry had previously been known as “The World’s Largest Outdoor Cocktail Party” until both schools agreed to suppress the use of the moniker.

Although Georgia's official fight song is the original "Hail to Georgia", the Georgia band is more well know for their repetition of “Glory, Glory”, a simplified version of "The Battle Hymn of the Republic".


Monday, October 26, 2015

Saturday in Review: Week 8

The Rebels were far too much, especially on defense, for the
Aggies to handle. Justin Ford-USA TODAY Sports
There's no such thing as a dull week of college football. The upsets began on Thursday when UCLA crushed Cal in the Rose Bowl. Temple came back in the fourth quarter to down East Carolina, remaining perfect and undefeated. Appalachian State earned their sixth win handling Georgia Southern, becoming bowl eligible and the team-to-beat in the Sun Belt Conference.

Alabama needed a late touchdown to get past Tennessee. Tennessee missed three field goals in their five-point loss, but still took the lead with less than six minutes remaining. The Tide responded with a long, game-winning touchdown drive. Ole Miss had a plethora of missed opportunities and offensive dysfunction against Texas A&M, but it didn't matter as the Rebel defense totally dominated the Aggies. Ole Miss outgained A&M 471 to 192, so the Rebels certainly should have scored more than 23 points, but threw four interceptions.

The Arkansas Razorbacks outlasted the Auburn Tigers through four overtime periods, ultimately winning 54-46. In a less thrilling contest, Vanderbilt topped Missouri 10-3; the Commodores outgained the Tigers 304 to 188, but still needed a last minute stop to keep Mizzou out of the endzone and preserve the win.

The highly-ranked Utah Utes fell hard against unranked USC. The inspired Trojans left no doubts in their 42-24 triumph. Stanford's 17-point win over Washington left the Washington State Cougars as the only Pac-12 team without a loss of 10 points or more (the Cougars largest margin of defeat was seven points against FCS member Portland State).

Michigan State needed a fourth quarter surge to hold off Indiana. Nebraska lost a close one to Northwestern while Maryland did the same against Penn State. All five of Nebraska's losses have come by five points or less.

Baylor defeated Iowa State with relative ease, but lost their starting quarterback to a broken vertebra in the process. South Florida blasted SMU while UCF lost 59-10 to the Houston Cougars. The 49-point loss was the worst home defeat in program history (precipitating head coach George O'Leary to resign on Sunday).

The combination of Clemson's dominant victory and Florida
State's defeat leaves the Tigers the only undefeated team in
the ACC. Brett Davis-USA TODAY Sports
What was bad in Orlando was even worse in Miami. In front of hundreds of home spectators, the Miami Hurricanes suffered their worst defeat since their program began in 1927. Clemson blew away the Hurricanes, scoring 58 points while holding the Canes to naught. The Tigers ran for 416 rushing yards and 567 total offensive yards (Miami could only muster 146 total yards). The day after the loss, Miami dismissed head coach Al Golden. In a much more competitive game, Duke survived Virginia Tech through quadruple overtime. The Blue Devils improved to 3-0 in conference play and are in good position to compete for a division (and conference) championship.

Like Duke, Pitt is also 6-1 and undefeated in the ACC after getting by Syracuse. The Panthers needed a late field goal to clinch the victory. North Carolina also won their game against Virginia, making them the third ACC Coastal team to be 6-1 and undefeated in conference. These teams will not remain undefeated for long, as matchups with one-another loom.

The most stunning finale to a game this weekend came in Atlanta, where Georgia Tech earned a victory against Florida State. With just 54 seconds left, Georgia Tech tied the game at 16-16 with a field goal. But FSU got the ball back, and drove the ball to the Tech 38-yard-line. With just six seconds remaining, the Seminoles lined up for a 56-yard field goal attempt. The kick was low and blocked, a Yellow Jacket picked up the ball and returned it 78 yards for the game-winning touchdown. The improbable win ended Florida State's 28-game conference winning streak (the second longest in ACC history) and the Seminoles' undefeated season. The Jackets improved to 3-5, keeping their bowl hopes alive.

State of Florida:
  • 21 Houston (7-0) over UCF (0-8), 45-14 59-10
  • 6 Clemson (7-0) over Miami (4-3), 35-31 58-0
  • South Florida (4-3) over SMU (1-6), 38-24 38-14
  • FIU (4-4) over Old Dominion (3-4), 31-20 41-12
  • Florida Atlantic (1-6) over UTEP (3-4), 27-24 27-17
  • 9 Florida State (6-1) over Georgia Tech (3-5), 30-14 22-16
  • 13 Florida (6-1), BYE
Southeastern Conference:
  • Arkansas (3-4) over Auburn (4-3), 35-28 54-46 (OT)
  • 8 Alabama (7-1) over Tennessee (3-4), 35-24 19-14
  • Missouri (4-4) over Vanderbilt (3-4), 10-6 10-3
  • 24 Mississippi (6-2) over 15 Texas A&M (5-2), 38-31 23-3
  • 5 LSU (7-0) over Western Kentucky (6-2), 49-28 48-20
  • Mississippi State (6-2) over Kentucky (4-3), 31-21 42-16
  • Georgia (5-2), BYE
  • South Carolina (3-4)BYE
Top 25:
  • 1 Ohio State (8-0) over Rutgers (3-4), 38-20 49-7
  • 2 Baylor (7-0) over Iowa State (2-5), 59-28 45-27
  • 3 Utah (6-1) over USC (4-3), 24-17 42-24
  • 7 Michigan State (8-0) over Indiana (4-4), 34-24 52-26
  • 10 Stanford (6-1) over Washington (3-4), 35-20 31-14
  • 14 Oklahoma State (7-0) over Kansas (0-7), 56-17 58-10
  • 17 Oklahoma (6-1) over Texas Tech (5-3), 41-34 63-27
  • 18 Memphis (7-0) over Tulsa (3-4), 38-17 66-42
  • 19 Toledo (7-0) over Massachusetts (1-6), 45-24 51-35
  • 20 California (5-2) over UCLA (5-2), 31-27 40-24
  • East Carolina (4-4) over 22 Temple (7-0), 21-17 24-14
  • 23 Duke (6-1) over Virginia Tech (3-5), 31-24 45-43 (OT)
  • 25 Pittsburgh (6-1) over Syracuse (3-4), 35-21 23-20
  • 4 TCU (7-0), BYE
  • 11 Notre Dame (6-1), BYE
  • 12 Iowa (7-0), BYE
  • 15 Michigan (5-2), BYE
Week 8 Record: 19-6 (76%)
Season Record: 172-45 (79%)

Wednesday, October 21, 2015

Saturday Predictions: Week 8

Temple is 6-0 for the first time since 1974, but may not stay
unbeaten for long with a trip to Greenville on Thursday.
Derik Hamilton-USA TODAY Sports
We should have a very exciting week of football upcoming even if it doesn't surpass the last or the next. Thursday night is gifted with three matchups that are all of some importance. Undefeated Temple goes on the road to play East Carolina. The Pirates (4-3) might be better than their record suggests while the Owls may be one of the more vulnerable unbeatens. Last year, a ranked East Carolina team was upset by Temple in Philadelphia; the Pirates could return the favor this season. Two of the Sun Belt's best teams, Georgia Southern and Appalachian State, will clash in Boone to determine who earns bowl eligibility first. Both teams are 5-1, are unbeaten in conference play, and have been generally impressive outside of one blowout loss for each team (Georgia Southern was blown out by West Virginia while App State was torched by Clemson). Finally, the state of California's finest public institutions will pit their teams on the gridiron for the 85th time in history. Cal is 5-1 and coming off a bye week while UCLA is 4-2 after being routed by Stanford last Thursday. The Golden Bears have a knack for playing (and winning) close games, having only lost one close game to Utah. The Bruins have been convincingly defeated in two consecutive games, although they should still have the ability to beat Cal in the Rose Bowl.

Their are two games on Friday, but they are of lesser interest. Unbeaten Memphis will be a solid favorite over Tulsa on the road, although Utah State and San Diego State are expected to play a closer game. Both the Aggies and the Aztecs are the lone Mountain West teams still undefeated in conference play, though they compete in different divisions. Utah State's defense excels in forcing turnovers, although San Diego State could keep the game close if they avoid mistakes.

Saturday begins with UCF hosting Houston in Orlando. The Knights will need nothing short of a miracle to knock off the undefeated Cougars. Fresh off a bye week, Texas gets Kansas State at home. The Wildcats have a history of beating the Longhorns, but are reeling after last Saturday's loss to Oklahoma. Texas should win if they are properly prepared.

Miami played well against Virginia Tech last Saturday but
will need an even better performance in order to knock off
Clemson this week. Steve Mitchell-USA TODAY Sports
Arkansas and Auburn will be desperate for a divisional win when they meet in Fayetteville. Both teams need a victory over an evenly-matched opponent before playing some of their more difficult competition, or else they may struggle to reach bowl eligibility. Miami plays Clemson at noon, looking for a huge upset over the Tigers. As talented as they are, the Hurricanes seem to have a major problem beating their best competition. A surprising win could qualify as a major success for Miami this season, but they may not have enough to upset Clemson this year.

Six Big Ten teams get underway around 3:30. Wisconsin travels to play Illinois, both teams needing a win to stay relevant in the West division race. Both Penn State and Maryland most recently played, and lost badly to, Ohio State. The Terrapins earned their second win in 38 tries against Penn State last year in State College; a follow-up win would do much to lift the spirits of this program in turmoil. Lastly, Michigan State plays Indiana at home following their huge triumph over Michigan last week. The Spartans seem to play every game closer than expected, so you might expect a good look from the Hoosiers this week.

Oddly, ranked Duke is a road underdog against four-loss Virginia Tech. The Hokies are a physical team and will have home-field-advantage, but the Blue Devils are better-coached and talented themselves. Tennessee is another road underdog, though this is more understandable considering their opponent, the Alabama Crimson Tide. The Volunteers are big underdogs and can only compete if their defense plays their best game of the year and their offense performs more consistently than in past games.

Vanderbilt will face Missouri at home in what should be one of the ugliest defensive battles of the year. Both teams' dysfunctional offenses are married to talented and competent defenses. A combined score beyond 25 points should come as a surprise. USF returns to Tampa to play the SMU Mustangs. The Bulls should find it easier to score on this SMU defense, although must not underestimate the Mustangs' offensive weapons.

Georgia Tech has lost five consecutive games, however, they
have tended to play well against FSU in the last 15 years.
Brett Davis-USA TODAY Sports
The evening slate of games begins with Florida State and Georgia Tech. Since 1999, all but one game between these ACC schools has been decided by one score or less. This season, the Seminoles are undefeated while the Jackets have accumulated a disappointing five losses on the year. Despite this, the experts in Vegas are predicting a close game. The Seminoles should cover the point spread as long as their running back is healthy and their defense doesn't let a few big plays slip.

The only game between two ranked teams will be played in Oxford, Mississippi between Texas A&M and Ole Miss. Both teams are coming off shocking defeats, and must not fall victim to the distraction of regret this weekend. Both teams have been too reliant on the pass this season. Ole Miss simply hasn't been able to move the ball on the ground in short-down situations, while A&M had their game ruined against Alabama with too many interceptions. The team that forces more interceptions will probably win this game as well.

LSU is riding high after last week's win over Florida, but shouldn't be too content with Western Kentucky coming into town. Since their 14-12 victory over Vanderbilt in their season opener, the Hilltoppers have averaged 49.5 points per game while allowing just 26 points per game (granted, against mediocre competition). Don't be too surprised if Western Kentucky puts up a few points against the Tigers. In Los Angeles, three-loss USC will host highly-ranked and undefeated Utah. Despite their discrepancy in success, the Trojans are actually favored slightly over the Utes at home. Theoretically, the Trojans match up well talent-wise with the Utes. With an interim head coach, they may (or may not) be inspired to play. However, Utah's defense and coaching should prove superior in this game.

State of Florida:
  • 21 Houston (6-0) over UCF (0-7), 45-14
  • 6 Clemson (6-0) over Miami (4-2), 35-31
  • South Florida (3-3) over SMU (1-5), 38-24
  • FIU (3-4) over Old Dominion (3-3), 31-20
  • Florida Atlantic (1-5) over UTEP (2-4), 27-24
  • 9 Florida State (6-0) over Georgia Tech (2-5), 30-14
  • 13 Florida (6-1), BYE
Southeastern Conference:
  • Arkansas (2-4) over Auburn (4-2), 35-28
  • 8 Alabama (6-1) over Tennessee (3-3), 35-24
  • Missouri (4-3) over Vanderbilt (2-4), 10-6
  • 24 Mississippi (5-2) over 15 Texas A&M (5-1), 38-31
  • 5 LSU (6-0) over Western Kentucky (6-1), 49-28
  • Mississippi State (5-2) over Kentucky (4-2), 31-21
  • Georgia (5-2), BYE
  • South Carolina (3-4)BYE
Top 25:
  • 1 Ohio State (7-0) over Rutgers (3-3), 38-20
  • 2 Baylor (6-0) over Iowa State (2-4), 59-28
  • 3 Utah (6-0) over USC (3-3), 24-17
  • 7 Michigan State (7-0) over Indiana (4-3), 34-24
  • 10 Stanford (5-1) over Washington (3-3), 35-20
  • 14 Oklahoma State (6-0) over Kansas (0-6), 56-17
  • 17 Oklahoma (5-1) over Texas Tech (5-2), 41-34
  • 18 Memphis (6-0) over Tulsa (3-3), 38-17
  • 19 Toledo (6-0) over Massachusetts (1-5), 45-24
  • 20 California (5-1) over UCLA (4-2), 31-27
  • East Carolina (4-3) over 22 Temple (6-0), 21-17
  • 23 Duke (5-1) over Virginia Tech (3-4), 31-24
  • 25 Pittsburgh (5-1) over Syracuse (3-3), 35-21
  • 4 TCU (7-0), BYE
  • 11 Notre Dame (6-1), BYE
  • 12 Iowa (7-0), BYE
  • 15 Michigan (5-2), BYE

Monday, October 19, 2015

Saturday in Review: Week 7

Boston College was no match for Clemson, as the Eagles
could only score on short drives and after the game was
already decided. Joshua S. Kelly-USA TODAY Sports
The great season continues after an exciting seventh week of college football. The offenses ran wild, but Auburn outlasted Kentucky in their duel on Thursday. Stanford dominated UCLA and certainly look like the team-to-beat in the Pac-12 North. Friday was a night to forget for Boise State, as the Broncos gave away eight turnovers and lost to Utah State for the first time since 1997.

The two top teams in the ACC remained perfect with good second half performances, as Clemson downed Boston College and Florida State beat Louisville. Both winners were prolific passing the ball.

South Florida outscored UConn by utilizing the speed of their playmakers and opportunistic defense. Despite being outgained by over 220 total (offensive) yards, UCF had a two-point lead going into the fourth against Temple. Ultimately, however, the Owls overcame the Knights to remain perfect on the season and keep their opponents winless.

Memphis remains undefeated after upsetting Ole Miss. The Rebels' offensive line was dominated by Memphis's defensive counterparts on multiple short down situations, which ultimately doomed Ole Miss. To make matters worse for the Rebels, who will now face the heart of their SEC West schedule, their star defensive end suffered a concussion before halftime.

In rather miraculous fashion, Michigan State defeated Michigan for the seventh time in eight years. The Spartans fought valiantly against the favored home team, but with just 10 seconds left, Michigan had the ball and a two-point lead and, on fourth down, was prepared to punt the ball away (perhaps running out the clock in doing so). Against the odds, the snap was low, Michigan's punter couldn't catch it, didn't fall on it, and proceeded to fumble it directly into the hands of a Spartan player. The Spartan convoy barreled down the field and into the endzone, putting MSU up 27-23 as the clock hit triple-zeroes. To all who were watching, they probably realized the improbability of such a jaw-dropping finish. The last-second touchdown will undoubtedly live forever in the history of the sport and the memories of its fans.

Despite both having one notch in the loss column, Alabama
and Florida are in favorable position to compete for an SEC
championship. Erich Schlegel-USA TODAY Sports
The Fighting Irish rallied from a fourth-quarter deficit to beat USC. Both defenses surrendered a combined 1,066 yards, but Notre Dame forced two critical interceptions.

Alabama ran over Texas A&M on their way towards a 41-23 victory. A&M threw four interceptions – three of them were returned for touchdowns (therefore, Texas A&M's offense actually outscored Alabama's 23-21). Georgia knocked down Missouri in an ugly, defensive brawl. The Tiger offense was utterly outmatched by Georgia's defense, but their defense kept them in the game. A late field goal ultimately lifted the Bulldogs past Mizzou.

LSU bested Florida in yet another classic game in the series. The game was higher scoring than most expected, as both teams' vaunted secondaries allowed a surprising number of big plays. The Gators scored first after an LSU special teams mishap granted them good field position. The Tigers proceeded to outscore Florida 28-7 in the second quarter while looking unstoppable offensively. However, the Gators rallied from the 14-point halftime deficit, and had tied the game before entering the fourth quarter. But the Tigers responded to Florida's last touchdown (which came off a spectacular punt return by Antonio Callaway) with their own long drive. It ended on fourth down, when LSU scored a touchdown on a fake field goal. Florida came close to scoring a game-tying touchdown afterwards (the ball was ripped out of Callaway's hands in the endzone), but ultimately couldn't equalize, ending their undefeated season. Florida has now lost nine of their last 14 games against LSU, with six of the Tiger victories being decided by seven points or less. With Florida and Texas A&M's losses, LSU remains the last undefeated SEC team.

State of Florida:
  • South Florida (3-3) over Connecticut (3-4), 24-20 28-20
  • Marshall (6-1) over Florida Atlantic (1-5), 34-17 33-17
  • Middle Tennessee (3-4) over FIU (3-4), 30-23 42-34
  • 11 Florida State (6-0) over Louisville (2-4), 26-17 41-21
  • Virginia Tech (3-4) over Miami (4-2), 20-17 30-20
  • 8 Florida (6-1) over 6 LSU (6-0), 17-14 35-28
  • Temple (6-0) over UCF (0-7), 42-10 30-16
Southeastern Conference:
  • Kentucky (4-2) over Auburn (4-2), 28-21 30-27
  • 13 Mississippi (5-2) over Memphis (6-0), 35-28 37-24
  • Mississippi State (5-2) over Louisiana Tech (4-3), 31-21 45-20
  • 10 Alabama (6-1) over 9 Texas A&M (5-1), 35-30 41-23
  • South Carolina (3-4) over Vanderbilt (2-4), 17-13 19-10
  • Georgia (5-2) over Missouri (4-3), 17-10 9-6
  • Arkansas (2-4), BYE
  • Tennessee (3-3), BYE
Top 25:
  • 1 Ohio State (7-0) over Penn State (5-2), 28-27 38-10
  • 2 Baylor (6-0) over West Virginia (3-3), 45-27 62-38
  • 3 TCU (7-0) over Iowa State (2-4), 49-20 45-21
  • 4 Utah (6-0) over Arizona State (4-3), 27-20 34-18
  • 5 Clemson (6-0) over Boston College (3-4), 20-0 34-17
  • 12 Michigan (5-2) over 7 Michigan State (7-0), 30-17 27-23
  • 14 Notre Dame (6-1) over USC (3-3), 21-17 41-31
  • 15 Stanford (5-1) over 18 UCLA (4-2), 28-24 56-35
  • 17 Iowa (7-0) over 20 Northwestern (5-2), 13-10 40-10
  • Kansas State (3-3) over 19 Oklahoma (5-1), 35-31 55-0
  • 21 Boise State (5-2) over Utah State (4-2), 31-24 52-26
  • 22 Toledo (6-0) over Eastern Michigan (1-6), 45-21 63-20
  • 24 Houston (6-0) over Tulane (2-4), 35-21 42-7
  • 16 Oklahoma State (6-0), BYE
  • 23 California (5-1), BYE
  • 25 Duke (5-1), BYE
Week 7 Record: 19-7 (73%)
Season Record: 153-39 (80%)

Wednesday, October 14, 2015

Saturday Predictions: Week 7

Once a preseason favorite to win the SEC, Auburn's season
may quickly spiral out of control if they don't win in
Lexington on Thursday night. John Reed-USA TODAY Sports
Now this is bound to be a very interesting weekend coming up. Thursday night's given not one, but two big matchups between power conference teams. In the first, Auburn meets Kentucky in Lexington. The Wildcats have won four of their five games, but have yet to defeat an opponent by more than eight points (including FCS team Eastern Kentucky, who took UK into overtime). Auburn has not been any more impressive, having only won three games. The Tigers were also taken into overtime by an FCS team (Jacksonville State). Home-field-advantage may be the deciding factor in Kentucky's favor. Eyes will turn towards Palo Alto to see the second big game of the night. UCLA plays Stanford in a major Pac-12 battle. Stanford is still undefeated in conference play, though could face a major challenge from Bay Area-rival Cal. UCLA already suffered a disappointing loss to Arizona State; another defeat may prove insurmountable in order to win the Pac-12 South. Stanford can control the game with their balanced rushing attack and good defense.

Friday features four games, though they may not interest everyone. In one of the more interesting games, BYU faces Cincinnati as both teams look to avoid a third loss. After that game begins, Boise State plays Utah State in a matchup between two of the Mountain West's best teams. The home-team Aggies will be underdogs, but have a shot if their defense plays to their full potential.

South Florida and UConn kickoff at noon, both teams desperate to avoid a fourth loss. The Bulls are hot after a 45-24 victory over Syracuse, but it's unknown whether they can repeat such a strong performance on the road. Northwestern will host undefeated Iowa in a clash of Big Ten West favorites. The Wildcats were shutout in Ann Arbor last week and hope to put up a better showing this Saturday. Iowa plays close against their best opponents, so one may expect a tight, low-scoring affair here again.

There'll be a big game in Liberty Bowl Stadium when Ole Miss comes to town. The Memphis Tigers are undefeated while the SEC power has just one loss. The Tigers have held on to win three straight close games against Bowling Green, Cincinnati, and USF, but have had an extra week to prepare for this game. The Rebels should have the talent to win and must avoid a letdown here. In Tallahassee, Florida State plays Louisville. For some reason, the unbeaten Seminoles are only favored by a touchdown over the three-loss Cardinals. Florida State's defense should prove to much for this Louisville offense.

Michigan State will not defeat their rivals without their best
performance of the year. Jim O'Connor-USA TODAY Sports
The 3:30 slate begins with Miami and Virginia Tech. The Hurricanes must return from an emotionally devastating loss last week, while the Hokies are coming off their best win of the season. Miami has all the talent necessary to win, but it has always been difficult in recent years for them to put those skills together and get a win. One of the biggest games Saturday will be held in College Station, where Texas A&M battles Alabama. The Aggies are undefeated, but are sure to face their biggest obstacle of the year in the Crimson Tide. If Alabama can avoid turnovers, they should probably win this game again.

Kansas State must follow last week's heartbreak with a game against Oklahoma. The Sooners may be even more frustrated than the Wildcats after their recent loss to rival Texas. K-State can rebound well with a win over OU. For the first time in years, Michigan and Michigan State play a game of major national relevance. Both teams are ranked in the Top 15, although the Wolverines are undoubtedly the hotter team, having won three consecutive shutouts. The Spartans, on the other hand, have struggled somewhat to greatly throughout the season. The Michigan defense should end MSU's undefeated season this week.

Neither team is expected to have a successful year, but the contest between Vanderbilt and South Carolina will be of certain note. The Gamecocks are playing for the first time in over a decade without head coach Steve Spurrier, who resigned Monday. The Gamecocks have the advantage of their home field, but should be challenged by a good Vanderbilt defense.

The most highly anticipated night game of the week will once again be held in Baton Rouge. There, the Florida Gators and the LSU Tigers will both try to continue their undefeated seasons. This should be very difficult for both teams, but especially for Florida. The Gators are playing their second straight road game and their first game of the year without quarterback Will Grier, who is suspended for 12 months after failing a drug test. The Gators will instead employ sophomore Treon Harris at the position (Harris has a 5-2 record as a starter). LSU's star running back Leonard Fournette is impossible to stop. However, if the Gators manage to slow him down and play competent offense against a good Tiger defense, they should still be capable of winning.

Mizzou must find more consistency and balance on offense to
upset Georgia at Sanford Stadium. Ed Zurga/Getty Images
Notre Dame will host USC in their annual rivalry. The Trojans' head coach was fired this week, so they'll need to pull themselves together in order to challenge the Fighting Irish. The Irish should be expected to win again in South Bend. Despite their loss to Tennessee last week, Georgia is a big favorite over Missouri at home this Saturday. The Bulldogs are playing without star halfback Nick Chubb, who is out for the season due to injury, but could see a new running back step up to the plate. Missouri plays excellent defense, but need a better performance from their offense in order to pull the upset.

Many will watch Ohio State as they face Penn State in Columbus. The Buckeyes are the top-ranked team, although many now doubt that high appraisal. The Nittany Lions have been inconsistent, but still have five wins somehow. Despite Ohio State's weaknesses, Penn State may not have enough to knock off the Buckeyes this week.

Undefeated Utah gets another tough test in Arizona State late Saturday night. The Sun Devils are trying to ride the success they had against UCLA two weeks ago, but will meet the best defense in the Pac-12 in Utah. The Utes are coming off a huge win over Cal last week, but must be prepared to play the improving Sun Devils. Few expected Oregon could face the prospect of a losing record by Week 7, but that will come to pass if they don't get by Washington. The Huskies have now lost 11 in a row to the Ducks, but have the golden opportunity to end that streak in Seattle.

State of Florida:
  • South Florida (2-3) over Connecticut (3-3), 24-20
  • Marshall (5-1) over Florida Atlantic (1-4), 34-17
  • Middle Tennessee (2-4) over FIU (3-3), 30-23
  • 11 Florida State (5-0) over Louisville (2-3), 26-17
  • Virginia Tech (3-3) over Miami (3-2), 20-17
  • 8 Florida (6-0) over 6 LSU (5-0), 17-14
  • Temple (5-0) over UCF (0-6), 42-10
Southeastern Conference:
  • Kentucky (4-1) over Auburn (3-2), 28-21
  • 13 Mississippi (5-1) over Memphis (5-0), 35-28
  • Mississippi State (4-2) over Louisiana Tech (4-2), 31-21
  • 10 Alabama (5-1) over 9 Texas A&M (5-0), 35-30
  • South Carolina (2-4) over Vanderbilt (2-3), 17-13
  • Georgia (4-2) over Missouri (4-2), 17-10
  • Arkansas (2-4), BYE
  • Tennessee (3-3), BYE
Top 25:
  • 1 Ohio State (6-0) over Penn State (5-1), 28-27
  • 2 Baylor (5-0) over West Virginia (3-2), 45-27
  • 3 TCU (6-0) over Iowa State (2-3), 49-20
  • 4 Utah (5-0) over Arizona State (4-2), 27-20
  • 5 Clemson (5-0) over Boston College (3-3), 20-0
  • 12 Michigan (5-1) over 7 Michigan State (6-0), 30-17
  • 14 Notre Dame (5-1) over USC (3-2), 21-17
  • 15 Stanford (4-1) over 18 UCLA (4-1), 28-24
  • 17 Iowa (6-0) over 20 Northwestern (5-1), 13-10
  • Kansas State (3-2) over 19 Oklahoma (4-1), 35-31
  • 21 Boise State (5-1) over Utah State (3-2), 31-24
  • 22 Toledo (5-0) over Eastern Michigan (1-5), 45-21
  • 24 Houston (5-0) over Tulane (2-3), 35-21
  • 16 Oklahoma State (6-0), BYE
  • 23 California (5-1), BYE
  • 25 Duke (5-1), BYE

Tuesday, October 13, 2015

Know Your Opponent: LSU

Although they prefer to play in Gainesville, the Gators have
picked up their fair share of wins in Baton Rouge. The second
was a 13-10 triumph in 1960. The Gators needed a 47-yard
field goal (then a conference record) to overcome the Tigers.
The Seminole
Heading on the road for the second consecutive week, the Gators now face the Tigers of Louisiana State University. LSU traces its establishment back to 1860, when the Louisiana State Seminary of Learning & Military Academy was opened in Pineville with William Tecumseh Sherman as superintendent. Sherman left the academy after Louisiana seceded from the Union. The school remained closed after the Federal army occupied Pineville in 1863, but reopened against after the war. After the college burned down in 1869, it moved to Baton Rouge and changed its name to "Louisiana State University". After merging with the another institution, the name was changed to "Louisiana State University and Agricultural and Mechanical College" in 1877, which is still the official name today (though it is rarely ever used in favor of the short name). The school’s campus was established at its current location in 1926. The school expanded rapidly during the governorship of Huey Long. Currently, the university enrolls over 30,000 students and more than 25,000 undergrads. School colors are royal purple and old gold (often just purple and yellow in appearance).

The LSU Tigers are among the oldest and most successful programs in the history of college football. The school began playing football in 1893. LSU joined the Southern Conference (SoCon) in 1922, one year after it was founded. The Tigers won a share of the SoCon title in 1932. Louisiana State became a charter member of the Southeastern Conference when the conference was formed in 1933. LSU has won 11 SEC titles, a total surpassed only by Alabama, Georgia, and Tennessee; their first SEC title was won in 1935 and the most recent in 2011. The Tigers play home football games in Tiger Stadium, nicknamed “Death Valley”. One of the largest (and loudest, at times) stadiums in the country, Tiger Stadium can seat in excess of 102,000 fans.

Louisiana State has won three national titles in its history (19582003, and 2007). Only two of these titles (1958 and 2007) are recognized by the AP, as the 2003 AP national title was awarded to the USC Trojans; however, the 2003 Tigers won the BCS National Championship that year. LSU’s Billy Cannon won the Heisman Trophy in 1959 (to date, the school’s only winner). Of LSU’s national championship teams, only the 1958 squad finished with a perfect (11-0) record, winning by at least seven points against every opponent other than Florida and Mississippi State. The 2003 team lost 19-7 to Florida in Tiger Stadium, while the 2007 squad actually lost twice (to Kentucky and Arkansas, both in triple overtime). LSU's greatest teams are characterized by strong defense and a powerful running game. Coincidentally, each LSU national championship team played their post-season bowl game in nearby New Orleans.

The 2009 Gators were the last to achieve victory at LSU.
Florida broke the Tigers' 32-game home winning streak with
the 13-3 win; the Gators triumphed with a strong ground game
(gaining 193 rushing yards) and good defense (holding LSU to
just 162 yards of offense). Sean Gardner/Reuters
The Tigers are one of the few programs to have won three national titles under three separate head coaches. Many argue that the beloved Charlie McClendon (1962–1979), who served the Tigers for 18 season but never won a national title or more than one conference title, was the greatest Tiger head ball coach. His predecessor, Paul Dietzel (1955–1961), produced three great teams, won two SEC championships, and the Tigers' first national championship, but three of his seven seasons ended with losing records. LSU had three winning seasons from 1989 to 1999. Nick Saban was hired the next year and almost immediately returned LSU to being a national power. Saban led LSU to two SEC titles and the 2003 BCS Championship while never posting a losing record. Saban's successor and current head coach, Les Miles, has also led the Tigers to a pair of conference titles and a national title. Miles has upheld a high standard of excellence at LSU, never winning fewer than eight games in a season and winning 10 or more games in seven of his 10 completed seasons.

Through much of LSU's history, no rival had been more important than Tulane. LSU and Tulane had battled for in-state bragging rights since 1893 and a trophy called "the Rag" since 1940. The rivalry was closely contested for its first five decades. However, Tulane's program fell into decline after the end of the Second World War. Since 1949, Tulane has only defeated LSU four times. Barring one year during the First World War, LSU had played Tulane every year since 1911. However, the increasingly lopsided nature of the series led to the cancellation of the annual bout after 1994. The two teams have not played since 2009 (LSU currently leads the series 69-23-7). Since Tulane's decline, LSU's primary rival has varied over the years. LSU and Ole Miss hold a fierce series that has been played nearly every year since 1926 (LSU leads 59-40-4). LSU is also a critical rival of Arkansas and Texas A&M, two of the SEC's expansion schools whose states share a border with Louisiana. LSU leads Arkansas in their series, 37-21-2, while they also lead their series with Texas A&M, 30-20-3. As you can determine from these series records, LSU tends to dominate their rivals and hate them less less than they themselves are hated. This is reversed in the case of Alabama. The Crimson Tide has gotten the better of LSU more often than not, and LSU trails in that series by a wide margin, 49-25-5.

The Gators and Tigers have a long history of playing another that goes back to their first meeting in 1937. The Florida-LSU game has occurred on a regular basis since 1953 and annually since 1971. In total, Florida and LSU have played 61 times; Florida has won 31 of these games, while LSU has won 27 (three games have ended in ties). Recently, the rivalry has become extremely competitive, with the last 18 games being won nine times by each school. In that span, six of LSU's nine victories have come by seven points or less; meanwhile, all of Florida's nine victories during this period have come by eight points or more.