Bowl Predictions: 2017-18

This year's bowl slate features a wide variety of competitive matchups and intriguing pairs. One never knows with too much certainty how things will play out, but I'll try to take a stab at it. You can follow my predictions live at ESPN's Bowl Mania.

Saturday, December 16

• New Orleans Bowl: Troy (10-2) over North Texas (9-4)
• Cure Bowl: Western Kentucky (6-6) over Georgia State (6-5)
• Las Vegas Bowl: 25 Boise State (10-3) over Oregon (7-5)
• New Mexico Bowl: Marshall (7-5) over Colorado State (7-5)
• Camellia Bowl: Arkansas State (7-4) over Middle Tennessee (6-6)

Tuesday, December 19

• Boca Raton Bowl: Florida Atlantic (10-3) over Akron (7-6)

Wednesday, December 20

• Frisco Bowl: Louisiana Tech (6-6) over SMU (7-5)

Thursday, December 21

• Gasparilla Bowl: FIU (8-4) over Temple (6-6)

Friday, December 22

• Bahamas Bowl: UAB (8-4) over Ohio (8-4)
• Potato Bowl: Central Michigan (8-4) over Wyoming (7-5)

Saturday, December 23

• Birmingham Bowl: South Florida (9-2) over Texas Tech (6-6)
• Armed Forces Bowl: San Diego State (10-2) over Army (9-3)
• Dollar General Bowl: Appalachian State (8-4) over Toledo (11-2)

Sunday, December 24

• Hawaiʻi Bowl: Fresno State (9-4) over Houston (7-4)

Tuesday, December 26

• Heart of Dallas Bowl: Utah (6-6) over West Virginia (7-5)
• Quick Lane Bowl: Duke (6-6) over Northern Illinois (8-4)
• Cactus Bowl: Kansas State (7-5) over UCLA (6-6)

Wednesday, December 27

• Independence Bowl: Florida State (6-6) over Southern Mississippi (8-4)
• Pinstripe Bowl: Iowa (7-5) over Boston College (7-5)
• Foster Farms Bowl: Arizona (7-5) over Purdue (6-6)
• Texas Bowl: Missouri (7-5) over Texas (6-6)

Thursday, December 28

• Military Bowl: Navy (6-6) over Virginia (6-6)
• Camping World Bowl: 22 Virginia Tech (9-3) over 19 Oklahoma State (9-3)
• Alamo Bowl: 15 TCU (10-3) over 13 Stanford (9-4)
• Holiday Bowl: 16 Michigan State (9-3) over 18 Washington State (9-3)

Friday, December 29

• Belk Bowl: Wake Forest (7-5) over Texas A&M (7-5)
• Sun Bowl: 24 North Carolina State (8-4) over Arizona State (7-5)
• Music City Bowl: 21 Northwestern (9-3) over Kentucky (7-5)
• Arizona Bowl: New Mexico State (6-6) over Utah State (6-6)
• Cotton Bowl: 5 Ohio State (11-2) over 8 USC (11-2)

Saturday, December 30

• Gator Bowl: Louisville (8-4) over 23 Mississippi State (8-4)
• Liberty Bowl: 20 Memphis (10-2) over Iowa State (7-5)
• Fiesta Bowl: 9 Penn State (10-2) over 11 Washington (10-2)
• Orange Bowl: 6 Wisconsin (12-1) over 10 Miami (10-2)

Monday, January 1

• Outback Bowl: Michigan (8-4) over South Carolina (8-4)
• Peach Bowl: 7 Auburn (10-3) over 12 UCF (12-0)
• Citrus Bowl: 17 LSU (9-3) over 14 Notre Dame (9-3)
• Rose Bowl: 3 Georgia (12-1) over 2 Oklahoma (12-1)
• Sugar Bowl: 1 Clemson (12-1) over 4 Alabama (11-1)

Monday, January 8

• National Championship: 4 Alabama (12-1) over 3 Georgia (13-1)

Gator Statistics: Conference and In-State Rivals

The table of statistics has been updated to accommodate for the results of the 2016 season.

Opponent	Games	Wins	Losses	Ties	Win %	First Meeting	Last Meeting
Georgia	94	43	49	2	0.468	1915	2016
Auburn	83	38	43	2	0.470	1912	2011
Kentucky	67	50	17	0	0.746	1917	2016
LSU	63	32	28	3	0.532	1937	2016
Florida State	61	34	25	2	0.574	1958	2016
Miami	55	26	29	0	0.473	1938	2013
Mississippi State	54	33	19	2	0.630	1923	2010
Vanderbilt	50	38	10	2	0.780	1945	2016
Tennessee	46	26	20	0	0.565	1916	2016
Alabama	40	14	26	0	0.350	1916	2016
Georgia Tech	38	9	23	6	0.316	1912	1981
South Carolina	37	26	8	3	0.743	1911	2016
Mississippi	24	11	12	1	0.479	1926	2015
Tulane	21	13	6	2	0.667	1915	1984
Arkansas	11	9	2	0	0.818	1982	2016
Missouri	6	3	3	0	0.500	1966	2016
Florida Atlantic	3	3	0	0	1.000	2007	2015
Texas A&M	3	2	1	0	0.667	1962	2012
UCF	2	2	0	0	1.000	1999	2006
South Florida	1	1	0	0	1.000	2010	2010
FIU	1	1	0	0	1.000	2009	2009

• Starting from the top of the table, one notices Georgia is the Gators' most frequent opponent. Florida and Georgia have met 94 times between 1915 and today, and have been playing annually every year since 1926 (excluding two years during World War II, when UF suspended its football program).
• But perhaps Georgia should not be considered Florida's oldest rival. The first game against Auburn was played in 1912. Except for three years during the early Forties, the Gators and Tigers played every year from 1927 to 2002. When the annual UF-AU game was terminated after the 2002 season, Florida had played Auburn and Georgia 80 times each. In addition, Auburn is the closest SEC university to Gainesville. For at least a few more years, Auburn will still have played Florida more frequently than their arch-nemesis, Alabama.
• Kentucky has played Florida more than anyone besides UGA and Auburn... this may be surprising considering the distance between Lexington and Gainesville. Indeed, for many years (1933 to 1992) UK was the farthest conference opponent from UF. Kentucky was also the northernmost SEC school (now Missouri), while Florida is the southernmost. Today, only Arkansas, Missouri, and Texas A&M are farther than Lexington. Nonetheless, they have played every year since 1967. This series has been terribly lopsided in the last half-century; since the teams began playing annually, Florida has won 45 times while Kentucky's won five.
• Louisiana State is the Gators' most frequent opponent currently in the SEC's West division and still playing Florida annually. They had never played each other until both teams joined the SEC, but have played fairly regularly since 1953 (annually since 1971). When the conference split into East and West, it was decided that Florida would still play two western teams annually. While the Auburn choice was obvious (it was an old and competitive rivalry), LSU was neither the Gators' most frequently nor second-most frequent western team. As a matter of fact, they were third, but that will be explained farther down.
• Not surprisingly, Florida State is the most frequent non-conference rival of the Gators. The game has been played annually since its inception in 1958. Florida State has played each the Gators and the Miami Hurricanes 61 times. Although the Seminoles and the Hurricanes first met in 1951, they did not start play annually until 1969. That series is led by Miami 31-30.
• Miami is the most frequent non-conference opponent that Florida no longer plays annually. Opinion among Gator fans is split as to whether this series or that with Auburn is the most unfortunate casualty of scheduling changes. Other than two years during the war, the Gators and the 'Canes played every year from 1938 to 1987. When the UF athletic department decided to cut its number of annual in-state opponents from two to one, it was decided that Florida State would be the one to remain. By that time, Florida State, the other large public university in northern Florida, had displaced the smaller private school in South Florida as the Gators' #1 in-state rival.
• When the conference split in 1992, the Gators needed two western schools to play annually. Auburn was the first, but who would be the second? Surprisingly, before the split Florida had played Mississippi State more frequently than any other western opponent besides Auburn (48 times to LSU's 39). However, that series had been far less competitive to that point (Florida had led it 30-16-2). The decision for Florida and LSU, whose series at the time was led by LSU 18-17-3, to play annually was made partially in the interest of balancing and competitiveness. Ironically, the series between UF and MSU has been split 3-3 while Florida leads LSU 15-10 since the conference division.
• Of all series between current annual opponents, that with Vanderbilt is the most lopsided. It was played somewhat infrequently until the SEC East division was created in 1992, though at the time Florida only led 14-9-2. Florida has dominated since then, with 24 wins to Vanderbilt's single victory.
• Although they first met in 1916, Florida and Tennessee have only been playing each other annually since 1990. Tennessee had previously dominated the series, though that changed after Tennessee-native-son-but-Gator-alum Steve Spurrier took the helm as Gator head coach. Florida has led 20-7 since the day Spurrier was hired. The series peaked in intensity during the 1990s, when both teams battled for domination of the SEC East.
• Alabama has played Florida on 40 occasions. The Gators and the Crimson Tide have played infrequently since first facing off in 1916. Of their 40 meetings, nine have been SEC Championship games. In such games, the Tide lead with five wins to Florida's four. The Gators have a lower winning percentage against Alabama, the traditional hegemon of the conference, than they have against any other remaining SEC member.
• It may surprise many that Florida has played Georgia Tech so frequently. As a matter of fact, the Yellow Jackets have played the Gators 38 times – as many or more times than five modern members of the SEC! However, the Gators did play Georgia Tech quite regularly from 1929 until the Jackets left the SEC after 1963. This is also the most lopsided series against the Gators of any opponent they have played more than ten times. The Orange and Blue only triumphed on nine occasions in 38 attempts against the Yellow Jackets. Had that series continued, one would imagine, that trend probably would have reversed. The Gators have not met the Yellow Jackets on the gridiron since a 27-6 triumph in 1981.
• Before South Carolina joined the SEC in 1992, they had only played the Gators on 12 occasions (and not since 1964). Before the expansion, the Gators had led the series 6-3-3, but since have led 20-5. However, during the tenure of head coach Steve Spurrier at South Carolina from 2005 until 2014, Florida and Carolina both defeated each other five times.
• Despite both being charter members of the SEC, Florida and Mississippi have only met 24 times. Since first playing in 1926, the Gators and the Rebels have only played more than two consecutive years on one occasion (1944-1948). As of the most recent conference alignment, this is unlikely to change any time soon. The Gators have also defeated Ole Miss less frequently than any other charter member of the SEC still a member of the conference.
• Like Georgia Tech, Tulane was once a member of the SEC and thus have some history playing the Gators. Until 1958, the Green Wave actually led the series with Florida 6-2-2. However, in 1958 the Gators won for the first time in 36 years and have not lost since. Since Tulane left the conference after 1966, they have only played Florida five times (the last being a 63-21 Gator victory in 1984).
• Florida and Arkansas have played on 11 occasions – the first was in Houston for the Bluebonnet Bowl while two others were in Atlanta for the SEC Championship. Arkansas's two wins came in the 1982 Bluebonnet Bowl and the most recent competition in Fayetteville. Thus, this is the most lopsided series between Florida and any of their SEC opponents.
• Missouri has only played the Gators six times, though they are currently scheduled to play on an annual basis. The Tigers won the first match-up, the 1966 Sugar Bowl, despite a furious comeback-attempt led by quarterback Steve Spurrier. Since Missouri joined the conference in 2012, Florida has led the series with three wins to the Tigers' two.
• Florida has only played Texas A&M three times, less than any other conference opponent. As members of different SEC divisions, they only play infrequently. The first game was played in 1962 and won handily by the Gators in Gainesville. The second game was the January 1977 Sun Bowl in El Paso. That game was won by the Aggies. The most recent game was in 2012, played in College Station, and won by Florida (20-17).
• The Gators have played Florida Atlantic three times and UCF twice; they have only played South Florida and FIU once each. The Gators have never lost to one of the four newer in-state programs. The only occasion Florida came close to losing to one of those four was in 2015, when it took overtime for the Gators to put away Florida Atlantic in the Swamp.
• Not included in the table above but also of note: Florida leads Sewanee (another charter member of the SEC who left in 1940 and now play in Division III) in their series, 7-2-0; UF leads Florida A&M 1-0-0, Florida Southern 13-1-0, Rollins 13-2-1, Stetson 15-2-2, and Tampa 5-0-0.