Saturday Predictions: Week 14

The Longhorns have looked good since the beginning of
November. They might need their best game of the season in
order to upset TCU. Peter G. Aiken-USA TODAY Sports

I may still call it "Saturday Predictions", but this week's write-up truly covers a full two- or three-day period of college football. Due to the unusually high number of teams (36!) playing on Thanksgiving or the following Friday, we college football fans will be gifted the most exciting three days of regular season competition that I can remember. This is also the penultimate week of the regular season and the last before conference championship week. But you could just call it "Rivalry Week", because many teams will be going up against a big rival or otherwise important opponent.

It all begins Thanksgiving night in Texas. There we will have two big games: LSU at Texas A&M and TCU at Texas. The two big public universities of Texas are the underdogs, but are both playing at home and have looked improved in previous weeks. The Tigers have had two weeks to recover from their shutout loss to Arkansas, while the Aggies will attempt to defeat LSU for the first time since 1995. Both teams suffer from inconsistent play at quarterback, though LSU is generally a better defensive team and A&M is broadly the better offensive team. It could come down to the wire. Over in Austin, TCU plays Texas with playoff contention on the line. Texas coach Charlie Strong has won three straight and is looking for his most impressive win to date. The Longhorns will need to play a good game if they hope to beat the Horned Frogs.

Come Friday at noon, the UCF Knights will play the South Florida Bulls in Tampa. UCF is the better team and a rightful favorite, but have yet to defeat the Bulls convincingly and have never beaten USF in Tampa. However, the Bulls need to play excellent defense and maybe a little luck to have a chance at beating the Knights. A few hours later, Missouri and Arkansas will kick off in Columbia. Now, I have underestimated both of these teams at times this year. But they both have shown that they can win when it matters. Yet only one team can win this Friday. Both teams have found success through a solid rushing game and excellent defense. Mizzou will clinch the SEC East if they win, though Arkansas certainly has no plans to allow that.

UCLA will match Oregon in the Pac-12 Championship if they
get past Stanford on Friday. Richard Mackson-USA TODAY Sports

The fate of the Pac-12 South will be decided Friday when Stanford plays UCLA and Arizona faces Arizona State. If UCLA bests the Cardinal, then it's simple, they win the division. However, if Stanford pulls the upset, the winner of Copper State showdown wins the South. Stanford has their work cut out for them, but are hoping that their defense can keep them in the game against the Bruins. Arizona-Arizona State is one of the hardest games to predict. Both teams have nine wins, two losses, and have looked great at times this year. Arizona State's two losses were inexplicably bad, but several of Arizona's wins were inexplicably close. Both teams have quality, balanced offenses and better-than-average defenses. Between these two evenly-matched in-state rivals, the winner may be the last to possess the ball.

Saturday begins with a bang when three SEC-ACC rivalries kick off at noon. First, the South Carolina Gamecocks will meet the Tigers in Clemson. South Carolina will try to end a disappointing regular season in a high note while Clemson looks to reverse South Carolina's recent dominance of the series. The Gamecocks have won five straight against their rivals, but this may be the Tigers' best chance to turn things around. South Carolina's strength is their offense, while Clemson has won most of their games through superior defense. Gamecock coach Steve Spurrier is 6-3 against the Tigers, but 5-1 against current coach Dabo Swinney. A Tiger victory will do much to quell Clemson fans' concerns about the current trend of the rivalry and Swinney's job security.

If that game isn't appealing, you may also choose to watch Kentucky take on Louisville. The Cardinals are strong favorites, as Kentucky has now lost five straight. Kentucky needs to win this game to reach bowl eligibility, but will likely struggle to produce offensively against Louisville's secondary. In addition, Lousiville is 4-1 in Cardinal Stadium (where the game will be played) while Kentucky has yet to win a road game.

Georgia has won 12 of the last 13 against Georgia Tech, but
the Ramblin' Wreck has a formidable option offense to
contend with. Jason Getz-USA TODAY Sports

If you plan to watch Georgia and Georgia Tech, buckle up for some running the ball, because those teams do it often and well. The Bulldogs' have the nation's 13th most productive rushing offense. The Yellow Jackets are even better, with the 4th best in the country. However, their style of running differs; the Dawgs' prefer power running while the Jacket utilize the spread option. Both teams have good defenses, although Georgia's has played better. One factor may be Georgia's motivation. If Missouri wins on Friday, that means the Dawgs will not be playing again until the bowl season and may not be so motivated to earn a win that would have otherwise preceded an SEC Championship Game. Georgia Tech, on the other hand, will appear in their conference championship game, and will hope to carry the momentum of a win on Saturday into their game against Florida State.

A slew of rivalry games, many you won't want to miss, come around 3:30. Mississippi State will face a once-proud Ole Miss team that seems to have lost its rhythm after loosing star receiver Laquon Treadwell. But, playing in Oxford, the Rebel defense may just be capable enough to keep this game close til the end. The Bulldogs must win this game to remain playoff or SEC Championship contenders. The home team has won nine of the last 10 in this series.

Many will be watching Florida play Florida State in Tallahassee. Pre-season betting lines placed the Seminoles as a 17 point favorite in this game. Remarkably, the undefeated Noles are favored by only 7.5 over the four-loss Gators (as of this morning). Despite an average strength of schedule, FSU has hardly dominated its opponents. One often neglected factor in this is the fact that an unusually high number of Florida State's opponents have had off-weeks preceding their date with the Seminoles. Yet with an unbalanced, pass-heavy offense and a defense that has not met expectations, the undefeated Seminoles appear bizarrely vulnerable. Of course, the Gators have the more obvious weaknesses. Florida has struggled passing the ball and converting on third downs. UF's special teams have had as many awful plays as they've had great plays. And, unlike the Seminoles, the Gators have often been unable to overcome deficits caused by turnovers.

Will Muschamp will end his tenure as head coach of the
Florida Gators against the Seminoles in Tallahassee.
Kim Klement-USA TODAY Sports

For the Gators to win, they need to find some way to keep the Seminole defense off-balance and run the ball. They will need to pound the ball, wear down FSU's defense, and keep Jameis Winston off the field for as long as they can. The Gator defense will need to contain receivers Rashad Greene and Nick O'Leary. Winston must be pressured frequently or constantly to reduce his play-making ability. In order for Florida State to win, they need to key in on the Gator running game, possibly by stacking the box. The Noles should take their chances with manning their corners against Florida's receivers. To keep the game in their control, Florida State should not allow Florida to run the ball like Boston College did last week or Florida did against Georgia. The Seminoles should frequently use aggressive special teams plays, like kick/punt blocking and low rugby-style punts. FSU should avoid giving the ball to Andre Debose on punt returns. Winston should test the Gator linebackers, who are missing Neiron Ball, by throwing to O'Leary and avoid looking towards Vernon Hargreaves as much as possible.

Tallahassee is forecast for a sunny Saturday, but the Gators should be glad if the weather turns rainy. Bad weather would play greatly towards the Gators' strengths and against Florida State's. This is the final regular season game for the Gators, who have nothing to lose and will be playing their last game for their coach. The Seminoles, however, have everything to lose, as a loss could knock them out of playoff contention. The Noles also must prepare for a match-up against Georgia Tech the following week. Florida State has the intangible advantage of playing at home (although the home team has lost the last three in this series).

While all that action is going on down south, Wisconsin and Minnesota will be battling for the Big Ten West championship as well as Paul Bunyan's Axe. Both teams love running the ball and are averse to the forward pass. In a rivalry that has been played for 108 straight years (the longest uninterrupted series between two FBS teams), it has been a considerable time since both these teams have been ranked and relevant. Wisconsin has been the dominant team of late, although Minnesota will field their strongest team in years. But Wisconsin may have the slightly better team and will play at home (the Gophers have not won in Madison since 1994). The winner will play Ohio State for the Big Ten Championship.

Tennessee will face Vanderbilt in Nashville, looking to become bowl eligible. If the Vols beat the Commodores and Kentucky finds some way to beat Louisville, Vandy will be the lone SEC team ineligible for a bowl bid.

Beating Auburn would advance Alabama to the SEC
Championship Game. Marvin Gentry-USA TODAY Sports

The last SEC game of the week will also be the most anticipated. The Iron Bowl, featuring Alabama and Auburn, has become the sport's premier rival in recent years. All of the previous five winners of this game have appeared in a national championship game (four have won it). Alabama is looking for revenge after losing last year's game on a humiliating field-goal return. Auburn is hoping to ruin their rival's conference and national championship hopes. If Mississippi State and Auburn both win on Friday, it will be the Bulldogs that reach Atlanta the following Saturday.

Alabama has played many close games on their way to a one-loss record, but has always played well against strong competition. Auburn, however, has played several bad games (including a 34-7 defeat at the hands of Georgia). The Tigers will need to pull out all the offensive stops in order to down the Tide in Tuscaloosa. Alabama appears to be the better team, but this didn't stop Auburn from pulling the upset against Alabama in 2010 and 2013. Maybe we shouldn't be too surprised if the Tigers shock the world again.

State of Florida:

• UCF (7-3) over South Florida (4-7), 27-17
• Old Dominion (5-6) over Florida Atlantic (3-8), 32-29
• Florida (6-4) over #1 Florida State (11-0), 31-27
• Miami (6-5) over Pittsburgh (5-6), 33-30
• FIU (4-8), END OF SEASON

Southeastern Conference:

• LSU (7-4) over Texas A&M (7-4), 34-31
• Arkansas (6-5) over #17 Missouri (9-2), 23-20
• South Carolina (6-5) over #23 Clemson (8-3), 35-28
• #8 Georgia (9-2) over #16 Georgia Tech (9-2), 38-31
• #24 Louisville (8-3) over Kentucky (5-6), 38-24
• #4 Mississippi State (10-1) over #18 Mississippi (8-3), 21-13
• Tennessee (5-6) over Vanderbilt (3-8), 35-14
• #2 Alabama (10-1) over #15 Auburn (8-3), 24-17

Top 25:

• Texas (6-5) over #6 TCU (9-1), 25-23
• #19 Marshall (11-0) over Western Kentucky (6-5), 35-13
• #12 Arizona (9-2) over #13 Arizona State (9-2), 38-34
• #9 UCLA (9-2) over Stanford (6-5), 34-17
• #21 Colorado State (10-1) over Air Force (8-3), 34-20
• #7 Ohio State (10-1) over Michigan (5-6), 42-13
• #5 Baylor (9-1) over Texas Tech (4-7), 52-28
• #10 Michigan State (9-2) over Penn State (6-5), 34-13
• #14 Wisconsin (9-2) over #22 Minnesota (8-3), 31-24
• #11 Kansas State (8-2) over Kansas (3-8), 45-20
• #3 Oregon (10-1) over Oregon State (5-6), 45-24
• #25 Boise State (9-2) over Utah State (9-3), 34-27
• #20 Oklahoma (8-3), BYE

Know Your Opponent: Florida State

The Gators end their regular season in traditional fashion, by playing the Seminoles of Florida State University. The West Florida Seminary, the oldest predecessor of the modern Florida State University, opened for classes in 1857 in Tallahassee. The West Florida Seminary was reorganized into Florida State College in 1901. The Buckman Act of 1905 consolidated all public schools of higher education in the state of Florida, requiring three gender and racially segregated institutions – one for black men and women (the State Normal School for Colored Students, which later became Florida A&M University) located in Tallahassee, one for white men (the University of Florida) in Gainesville, and one for white women, also in Tallahassee. The latter institution became the Florida State College for Women. After the Second World War, the school became coeducational again and changed its name to Florida State University. Florida State now enrolls nearly 42,000 students (including almost 32,000 undergrads). FSU’s school colors are garnet (a dark shade of red) and gold.

Florida's last game in Tallahassee was a 37-26 victory. The
Gators forced five turnovers and had a dominant fourth
quarter, outscoring the Seminoles 24-6. A game won through 
a grinding rushing attack and strong defense, it may be 
remembered as the height of Will Muschamp's football 
philosophy at Florida. Mike Ehrmann

Despite being younger than many other successful and tradition-rich football programs (Florida State has only played football since 1947), the Seminoles have enjoyed tremendous success in their history. An independent for most of their history, FSU finally joined the Atlantic Coast Conference (ACC) in 1992. Florida State has won 14 ACC titles, more than any other school besides charter member-Clemson (which also has 14). Needless to say, Florida State has dominated their conference in the last two decades. The Seminoles play in Doak Campbell Stadium for home games; the Doak has a capacity in excess of 82,000 spectators, with 84,392 being the official record-high attendance.

Florida State has won three consensus national championships (1993, 1999, and 2013) and has produced three Heisman Trophy winners (Charlie Ward in 1993, Chris Weinke in 2000, and Jameis Winston in 2013). The 1999 squad completed a perfect, 12-0 season and soundly the defeated Michael Vick-led Virginia Tech Hokies in the Sugar Bowl to secure the second-ever BCS championship. The 2013 Seminoles also won every game on their schedule, winning 14 games and the final championship before the playoff-era.

Although not as old as Florida’s border rivalry with Georgia, the in-state Florida State rivalry is just as intense. In this rivalry, there are no conference implications, but often repercussions on the national championship instead. The Gators and Seminoles have played 58 times and every year since their first meeting in 1958. The Gators have only played Georgia, Auburn, Kentucky, and LSU more frequently, while the Seminoles have only played Miami more frequently. Florida leads the series with 34 victories; Florida State has won 22 games over the Gators (twice have the teams tied). Florida State has been defeated by Florida more frequently than any other opponent. After losing in the regular season to the Seminoles, the 1996 Florida Gators defeated FSU in a rematch in the Sugar Bowl, securing their first national title. Later that year, in a game remembered by some as "The Greatest Game Ever Played at the Swamp", the Gators defeated the #1-ranked Seminoles 32-29 at home after a late-game touchdown drive ruined Florida State’s hopes for the 1997 title.

Saturday in Review: Week 13

Yellow Jackets rejoiced when the Tar Heels trampled the
Blue Devils last Thursday. Mark Dolejs-USA TODAY Sports

There were no shake-ups at the top, but it was still a nice week of college football with quite a few games of notable consequence.

Let's begin with last Thursday's events. Kansas State survived their trip to Morgantown, maintaining their slim hopes of a conference championship. To earn that championship, the Wildcats still need to win out in the Big 12 (that means an unlikely win over Baylor) and hope Texas or Iowa State pulls the upset against TCU. The Mountaineers, and particularly quarterback Clint Trickett (who went out with an injury half-way through), committed too many errors to beat the Wildcats.

The Tar Heels stomped Duke, securing Georgia Tech a trip to Charlotte. Early errors doomed the Blue Devils, forcing them to play from behind for the entire game. North Carolina played well with the lead, not giving Duke any chance at a comeback. As a result, the Yellow Jackets will play Florida State for the ACC Championship.

Florida won its sixth game, becoming bowl eligible for the first time since 2012. Eastern Kentucky didn't turn out to be much of a match for the Gators, as they were soundly defeated. The Colonels stacked the box on defense, hoping to stop the run by keying in on it. While this strategy did succeed in limiting Florida's rushing effectiveness, it also allowed the Gators to continually burn the Colonels on deep passes. The Colonel offense had no chance against the defense who opposed them.

The Big Ten West will now run through Madison, Wisconsin, as Minnesota upset Nebraska in Lincoln, eliminating the Huskers from the conference race. The Gopher's rushing offense overcame a 14-point halftime deficit, thanks in large part to superb defensive play and fortuitous Nebraska turnovers. The winner of Paul Bunyan's Axe (the Minnesota-Wisconsin rivalry) will now face Ohio State for the conference championship.

The single-game rushing record was broken for the second
time in seven days when Samaje Perine ran for 427 against
Kansas last Saturday. Kevin Jairaj-USA TODAY Sports

Coming of their big win over Nebraska, Wisconsin just scraped by Iowa. Another excellent performance by Melvin Gordon was crucial in the Badgers' narrow victory. Gordon has now surpassed 2,000 rushing yards this season, building a strong case for several major awards. But not everything went well for Gordon. His all-time rushing record for yards in a game was broken after just a week (after having stood for over a decade). It was Oklahoma's Samaje Perine who set the new mark. Against Kansas, Perine gained 427 yards on 34 carries (12.6 average); by comparison, Gordon earned 408 yards on only 25 carries (16.3 average). Like Gordon, Perine is certainly very thankful for the blockers on his offensive line, who opened huge running holes against the hapless Jayhawk defense. The Sooner halfback is only a freshman, so we football fans can only hope for many more great games from this incredible athlete.

Marshall looked more vulnerable than ever, barely beating UAB in Birmingham. The Thundering Herd will play the winner of the Louisiana Tech-Rice game (which will be played this Saturday) in the Conference USA championship game. In an incredible/terrible game, Wake Forrest downed Virginia Tech 6-3 in double overtime. The two teams combined for zero points after the end of sixty minutes; two field goals in extra time were good enough for the Demon Deacons to win. It is remarkable that this same squad of Hokies defeated an Ohio State team earlier this year that is now, by some, considered a playoff contender.

Two surprising upsets came around the same time Saturday. Arizona crushed Utah in Salt Lake City, despite an injury to their starting quarterback. Meanwhile, Arkansas was shutting out Ole Miss in Razorback Stadium. The Razorbacks became the seventh SEC West team to gain bowl eligibility (now common to all the division's schools). The Rebels, on the other hand, look lost without Laquon Treadwell.

It took 59 minutes and 57 seconds, but FSU finally put the
game out of reach for BC. Melina Vastola-USA TODAY Sports

Notre Dame missed a field goal and Louisville upended the Irish in South Bend. Notre Dame has now lost three straight. Florida State, who almost lost to each of those teams, almost lost again, this time to Boston College. Again, the Seminoles found a way to slip by in the second half. A rainy day in Tallahassee, the weather provided a tangible advantage for the Eagles' rushing offense over FSU's pass-heavy attack. A field goal with only seconds left kept the game from going into overtime. Florida State has required a go-ahead score in the fourth quarter five times this season.

Miami was the state of Florida's most disappointing team last Saturday, as the Hurricanes fell 30-13 against Virginia. Miami relied to heavily on their passing game, giving only 15 carries to Duke Johnson. Now the Cavaliers have a chance to reach bowl eligibility; their only remaining obstacle is a questionable Virginia Tech team that has nonetheless had Virginia's number in recent years.

The Missouri Tigers and their defense are just one win away from Atlanta after besting Tennessee in Knoxville. Missouri only has to defeat Arkansas this Friday to play the West champions in two weeks. If the Hogs prevail, Georgia will be sent to Atlanta. Tennessee, on the other hand, has to beat Vanderbilt in their regular season finale to gain bowl eligibility.

The Bruins beat the Trojans more easily than many expected and now control their destiny in the Pac-12 South. If UCLA can beat Stanford this Friday in Pasadena, they will play Oregon for the conference championship. If the Cardinal pull the upset, the winner of the Arizona-Arizona State game (also Friday) will play the Ducks.

State of Florida:

• Florida (6-4) over Eastern Kentucky (9-3), 45-10 52-3
• UCF (7-3) over SMU (0-10), 45-10 53-7
• #1 Florida State (11-0) over Boston College (6-5), 31-20 20-17
• FIU (4-8) over North Texas (4-7), 31-24 17-14
• Memphis (8-3) over South Florida (4-7), 34-13 31-20
• Miami (6-5) over Virginia (5-6), 27-21 30-13
• Middle Tennessee (6-5) over Florida Atlantic (3-8), 35-17 35-34

Southeastern Conference:

• #9 Georgia (9-2) over Charleston Southern (8-4), 66-6 55-9
• South Carolina (6-5) over South Alabama (6-5), 45-17 37-12
• #8 Mississippi (8-3) over Arkansas (6-5), 17-14 30-0
• #2 Alabama (10-1) over Western Carolina (7-5), 52-0 48-14
• #16 Auburn (8-3) over Samford (7-4), 45-7 31-7
• Tennessee (5-6) over #19 Missouri (9-2), 38-31 29-21
• #4 Mississippi State (10-1) over Vanderbilt (3-8), 45-14 51-0
• Kentucky (5-6), BYE
• #20 LSU (7-4), BYE
• Texas A&M (7-4), BYE

Top 25:

• West Virginia (6-5) over #12 Kansas State (8-2), 35-34 26-20
• #25 Duke (8-3) over North Carolina (6-5), 27-24 45-20
• #21 Nebraska (8-3) over Minnesota (8-3), 34-31 28-24
• #10 Michigan State (9-2) over Rutgers (6-5), 45-17 45-3
• #18 Marshall (11-0) over UAB (5-6), 42-17 23-18
• #23 Oklahoma (8-3) over Kansas (3-8), 35-21 44-7
• #7 Ohio State (10-1) over Indiana (3-8), 52-14 42-27
• #13 Arizona State (9-2) over Washington State (3-8), 34-27 52-31
• #22 Colorado State (10-1) over New Mexico (3-8), 38-28 58-20
• #20 Utah (7-4) over #15 Arizona (9-2), 23-20 42-10
• #14 Wisconsin (9-2) over Iowa (7-4), 31-14 26-24
• #3 Oregon (10-1) over Colorado (2-9), 59-21 44-10
• #6 Baylor (9-1) over Oklahoma State (5-6), 55-14 49-28
• #11 UCLA (9-2) over #24 USC (7-4), 38-35 38-20
• #17 Georgia Tech (9-2), BYE
• #5 TCU (9-1), BYE

Week 13 Record: 20-8 (71%)

Season Record: 179-73 (71%)

Saturday Predictions: Week 13

The Tar Heels look to upset Duke in Durham tonight and
recapture the Victory Bell. Bob Donnan-USA TODAY Sports

This Saturday will be the final (relatively) calm week of the regular season. Only two games feature a pair of ranked teams (AP) and both of those games are between two Pac-12 South teams. Most SEC teams will be expected to blow away their lesser competition, though there should be enough entertaining games from the other conferences.

Let's start with tonight's games; both should be fun to watch. First to kick off will be Kansas State and West Virginia. Kansas State is highly ranked and has a better record than WVU, but they're not the favorites coming into Morgantown. Actually, both teams appear evenly matched, with West Virginia's stronger schedule accounting for their higher loss total. The game's a toss-up, so home field advantage may determine the victor. Next will be an important ACC match-up, Duke versus North Carolina. Duke must win it's next two games to clinch their division. North Carolina needs a win to become bowl eligible. These rivals usually provide close, hard-fought games. Don't anticipate this year's contest to be any different.

For Will Muschamp to earn a victory in his final home game at Florida, he must overcome the Eastern Kentucky Colonels. The Colonels are one of the best teams in the FCS and are currently ranked sixteenth in the Coaches Poll of that subdivision. EKU has already defeated one FBS team this year (Miami of Ohio). Despite this, the Gators should be too talented for their competition, but, as any Gator fan knows, no win is assured under the current coaching staff. The Colonels have a balanced offensive attack that needs to put forth their best effort to score on this Florida defense. The Gator offense, on the other hand, needs to improve it's scoring efficiency in order to put away Eastern Kentucky.

Minnesota needs a little luck to win the Big Ten West. Of
course, this necessitates defeating Nebraska in Lincoln.
Jesse Johnson-USA TODAY Sports

After falling to Wisconsin last week, Nebraska has another chance to pick up a conference win this Saturday against Minnesota. Both teams greatly prefer to run the ball, though Nebraska is the more effective passing team. This shade of a second-dimension should prove an advantage for Nebraska. Later, Melvin Gordon and Wisconsin face the Hawkeyes in Iowa City. The junior running back needs another impressive performance to keep himself atop the Heisman discussion.

Coming off their epic clash with the Hurricanes last week, the Seminoles get to play Boston College at home. The challenge for the Florida State defense is to contain Tyler Murphy; if this is accomplished they should win with relative ease. Meanwhile, Miami gets a test against a rested and hungry Virginia team in Charlottesville. The Cavaliers need to pull the upset here and win again against Virginia Tech at the end of the season to reach bowl eligibility.

The first of two SEC games that are expected to be competitive will be played Fayetteville. Ole Miss is coming to town to face an Arkansas squad that has never lacked for confidence. Anticipate a low-scoring, defensive struggle between these two teams. It should remain close even in the final quarter. The second game will be in Knoxville, where the Volunteers take on Missouri. This game should also be close, though you could probably expect a bit more scoring. A win gives Tennessee bowl eligibility, but also eliminates Missouri from the SEC East championship. Georgia will be travelling to Atlanta this December if Mizzou doesn't win its next two games.

Saturday's a critical day in the Pac-12 South, as USC plays UCLA and Arizona plays Utah. Each team is ranked an each can win the division (though Utah needs the most help). Neither game has a clear-cut favorite, either. In Los Angeles, UCLA appears to be the better, though less consistent team. Utah and Arizona are both talented and incredibly scrappy, having both played in and won many close games. Utah is more defensive while Arizona is more offensive; both teams are well-matched for another close one this Saturday in Salt Lake City.

State of Florida:

• Florida (5-4) over Eastern Kentucky (9-2), 45-10
• UCF (6-3) over SMU (0-9), 45-10
• #1 Florida State (10-0) over Boston College (6-4), 31-20
• FIU (4-7) over North Texas (3-7), 31-24
• Memphis (7-3) over South Florida (4-6), 34-13
• Miami (6-4) over Virginia (4-6), 27-21
• Middle Tennessee (5-5) over Florida Atlantic (3-7), 35-17

Southeastern Conference:

• #9 Georgia (8-2) over Charleston Southern (8-3), 66-6
• South Carolina (5-5) over South Alabama (6-4), 45-17
• #8 Mississippi (8-2) over Arkansas (5-5), 17-14
• #2 Alabama (9-1) over Western Carolina (7-4), 52-0
• #16 Auburn (7-3) over Samford (7-3), 45-7
• Tennessee (5-5) over #19 Missouri (8-2), 38-31
• #4 Mississippi State (9-1) over Vanderbilt (3-7), 45-14
• Kentucky (5-6), BYE
• #20 LSU (7-4), BYE
• Texas A&M (7-4), BYE

Top 25:

• West Virginia (6-4) over #12 Kansas State (7-2), 35-34
• #25 Duke (8-2) over North Carolina (5-5), 27-24
• #21 Nebraska (8-2) over Minnesota (7-3), 34-31
• #10 Michigan State (8-2) over Rutgers (6-4), 45-17
• #18 Marshall (10-0) over UAB (5-5), 42-17
• #23 Oklahoma (7-3) over Kansas (3-7), 35-21
• #7 Ohio State (9-1) over Indiana (3-7), 52-14
• #13 Arizona State (8-2) over Washington State (3-7), 34-27
• #22 Colorado State (9-1) over New Mexico (3-7), 38-28
• #20 Utah (7-3) over #15 Arizona (8-2), 23-20
• #14 Wisconsin (8-2) over Iowa (7-3), 31-14
• #3 Oregon (9-1) over Colorado (2-8), 59-21
• #6 Baylor (8-1) over Oklahoma State (5-5), 55-14
• #11 UCLA (8-2) over #24 USC (7-3), 38-35
• #17 Georgia Tech (9-2), BYE
• #5 TCU (9-1), BYE

Know Your Opponent: Eastern Kentucky

EKU has been one of the most successful FCS (formerly
1-AA) teams of the last six decades. Wikimedia Commons

Will Muschamp coaches his last home game as head coach of the Gators against the Colonels of Eastern Kentucky University. Eastern Kentucky State Normal School was established in 1906, on the site of the defunct Central University (founded 1874) in Richmond. In 1930, the institution became Eastern Kentucky State Teachers College and, in 1948, simply Eastern Kentucky State College. The school finally became Eastern Kentucky University in 1966. EKU enrolls nearly 16,000 students (including almost 14,000 undergraduates). The Colonels sport maroon and white.

The EKU football program began in 1909, when the school was still Eastern Kentucky State Normal School. They have been a member of the Ohio Valley Conference (OVC) since it was founded in 1948. The Colonels (known in their earlier years as "the Maroons") have enjoyed consistent success in the lower tier of Division I. Eastern Kentucky has won 21 OVC championships – the first in 1954 and the latest in 2011. The Colonels have also captured two Division I (1-AA/FCS) national championships (1979 and 1982). EKU plays their home games in Roy Kidd Stadium, one of the largest and most imposing stadiums in the lower subdivision of Division I. Roy Kidd Stadium seats over 22,000; the record attendance was achieved in 1979, when over 25,000 came to see the Colonels defeat their arch-rivals, the Western Kentucky Hilltoppers.

The Gators have never faced the Colonels on the gridiron.

Saturday in Review: Week 12

For the Gator Nation, the Saturday of November 15, 2014 will forever live in infamy. On that day Will Muschamp lost the game that ended his career as head coach of the Florida Gators. What doomed him on that day, and really throughout his career, was under-performance on the offense side of the ball (though critical errors on special teams did not help). Muschamp will continue to coach the Gators through the Florida State game, giving him a chance to improve on his current 27-20 record at UF. Muschamp needs to win at least one of his two remaining games to make the Gators bowl-eligible and avoid the lowest winning percentage of any non-interim Florida head coach since Raymond Wolf (1946-49). Muschamp ended his career with a 17-15 record in the SEC. Against conference opponents that were not Kentucky or Tennessee, Muschamp was 9-15. A long list of notorious achievements were made under Muschamp-coached Florida teams, which will forever mark his career. Among these were ending a 22-year bowl-streak, losing for the first time ever to an FCS opponent, posting a losing record for the first time in 33 years, and losing twice to teams that gained less than 120 yards of offense. The highlight of Muschamp's career was undoubtedly the 2012 season, in which his Gators won eleven games (seven in the SEC), went undefeated at home, and finished ranked in the top 10. His Gators were always noted for superb defensive play and good discipline off-the-field. His good humor and work ethic made him well liked among fans and players, though this obviously could not overcome the disappointing on-field performance of the teams he coached.

Will Muschamp lost his final SEC game as head coach of the
Florida Gators. The Gators wasted an excellent performance
by their defense and several opportunities to put the game out
of reach for the Gamecocks. Kim Klement-USA TODAY Sports

Now to discuss the game itself. The Gators had every opportunity to win, but blew their chances through overly conservative play-calling in the second half and egregious special teams mistakes. South Carolina, coming off a bye week, came out hot on offense, jumping to an early 10-0 lead in the first quarter. But then the Gator defense clamped down, essentially shutting down one of the SEC's most productive offenses for the rest of the game. A balanced offensive attack cut Carolina's lead to seven and then to nothing before the half ended. After halftime, Florida's offense became inexplicably conservative. Against the SEC's worst pass defense, the Gators only attempted 11 passes. South Carolina keyed in on the run, and was largely effective in limiting or stopping it. Eventually, the Gators broke the deadlock, scoring a touchdown and gaining a 17-10 lead just before the third quarter ended.

The Gators would go on to have several chances to score again and build an insurmountable lead during the fourth, but squandered each opportunity. There was a Treon Harris fumble. And a near-pick-six that was dropped in the end-zone. And a Treon Harris touchdown called back by a holding call. And a blocked chip-shot kick. Still, Florida had the ball with less than two minutes left and the seven-point lead. All they needed was a first down and they could run out the clock. Three running plays later and it was fourth down. Yet, with only 50 seconds left and no timeouts, South Carolina had little chance to score a game-tying touchdown against Florida's defense if the Gators could only get off a punt and give the Gamecocks a long field. Of course, the punt was blocked. Of course, the Gamecocks tied the game with 12 seconds left. Of course, Florida could not gain a first down in overtime and was forced to take a field goal. Of course, Carolina won it with a touchdown in overtime. Thus, a win by a Gator head coach ended the career of a head coach at Florida. Credit the Gamecocks for never giving up, even as it seemed ever more likely that they would lose. Muschamp will end his career losing no less than six of his final nine home games at The Swamp, a simply inexcusable record at home.

In other parts of Florida, UCF beat an overmatched Tulsa team and FIU scored a surprise win at home. Florida State rallied, once again, to beat Miami. This game played out, more or less, exactly like many of Florida State's other comebacks. Florida State's opponents were better than the Noles in the first half, but the Seminoles were better in the second and in the end. South Florida downed SMU with a go-ahead touchdown just before time expired, extending the Bulls' unlikely bowl hopes for at least seven days.

Alabama defeated Mississippi State with an impressive defensive performance in Tuscaloosa. The Tide now control their destiny in the SEC West, though the Bulldogs are still in the playoff picture even if Bama wins out. Mississippi State fans will surely be hoping for upsets that go against the other highly ranked teams as the season nears its end.

The Tennessee Volunteers appear bowl-bound after their 50-16 demolition of Kentucky. Georgia also obliterated their opponent, Auburn, keeping their SEC East title hopes strong but requiring a Missouri loss. Unfortunately, however, star halfback Todd Gurley suffered a season-ending injury during the game. Speaking of Missouri, the Tigers won a crucial match-up against Texas A&M in College Station. Mizzou must win both of its final two games, against Tennessee and Arkansas, to clinch a trip to Atlanta. Arkansas, meanwhile, ended a 17-game conference losing streak with their 17-0 win over LSU in Fayetteville. This win is long overdue for the Razorbacks, who have lost many close games against good opponents over that long streak. The Hogs held the Tigers to only 123 yard of offense, winning the Golden Boot for the first time since 2010.

Melvin Gordon and the Wisconsin offensive line set a new 
record for single-game rushing yards by an FBS player. Such a
rare achievement has granted credence to his Heisman
campaign. Ronald Martinez

Georgia Tech took care of business against Clemson, though they still need Duke to drop one of its two remaining games (against North Carolina or Wake Forest) to win the ACC Coastal. Duke's 17-16 loss to Virginia Tech puts them in a precarious position to win their division. TCU barely edged Kansas in a surprisingly close contest.

Up north, Wisconsin and their running back piled up on Nebraska, even though the snow did not. Melvin Gordon, the aforementioned back, compiled an incredible 408 rushing yard against the Huskers, good enough for a new FBS record. This outstanding accomplishment says much not only about the performance of Gordon (who only actually played three quarters), but also of his offensive line. This game has moved Gordon's name to the center of the Heisman discussion. Wisconsin now leads the Big Ten West, but still has to face Iowa and Minnesota, who are both tied for second.

Notre Dame lost in shocking fashion to Northwestern in South Bend. The overtime loss is Notre Dame's second consecutive loss, third loss overall, and first loss at home. The Irish have lost three of their last four and it may not be getting any easier; the Irish still have to play Louisville and USC before the end of the regular season. The Arizona Wildcats provided another thrilling finish, beating Washington on a field goal just as time ran out. After ending regulation tied 7-7, Utah outlasted Stanford in overtime. The Utes have now played three overtime games this season, the most of any FBS team. Arizona State fell to Oregon State, breaking the Pac-12 South race wide open. Four teams, USC, UCLA, Arizona, and Arizona State, are now tied for leadership atop the division. The winner, who will face Oregon in the conference championship, will be the most battle-tested team in the Pac-12.

State of Florida:

• UCF (6-3) over Tulsa (2-8), 34-20 31-7
• Florida (5-4) over South Carolina (5-5), 38-30 23-20 (OT)
• Middle Tennessee (5-5) over FIU (4-7), 34-27 38-28
• #2 Florida State (10-0) over Miami (6-4), 41-38 30-26
• South Florida (4-6) over SMU (0-9), 24-17 14-13
• Florida Atlantic (3-7), BYE

Southeastern Conference:

• #4 Alabama (9-1) over #1 Mississippi State (9-1), 28-24 25-20
• Tennessee (5-5) over Kentucky (5-6), 42-31 50-16
• #16 Georgia (8-2) over #9 Auburn (7-3), 45-41 34-7
• Texas A&M (7-4) over Missouri (8-2), 28-21 34-27
• #20 LSU (7-4) over Arkansas (5-5), 31-27 17-0
• #10 Mississippi (8-2), BYE
• Vanderbilt (3-7), BYE

Top 25:

• #8 Ohio State (9-1) over Minnesota (7-3), 38-23 31-24
• #24 Georgia Tech (9-2) over #18 Clemson (7-3), 38-34 28-6
• #19 Duke (8-2) over Virginia Tech (5-5), 24-20 17-16
• #21 Marshall (10-0) over Rice (6-4), 35-17 41-14
• #5 TCU (9-1) over Kansas (3-7), 56-14 34-30
• #22 Wisconsin (8-2) over #11 Nebraska (8-2), 34-31 59-24
• #15 Notre Dame (7-3) over Northwestern (4-6), 38-17 43-40 (OT)
• #17 Arizona (8-2) over Washington (6-5), 31-17 27-26
• #25 Utah (7-3) over Stanford (5-5), 31-24 20-17 (OT)
• #12 Michigan State (8-2) over Maryland (6-4), 34-20 37-15
• #7 Arizona State (8-2) over Oregon State (5-5), 31-20 35-27
• #6 Baylor (8-1), BYE
• #23 Colorado State (9-1), BYE
• #13 Kansas State (7-2), BYE
• #3 Oregon (9-1), BYE
• #14 UCLA (8-2), BYE

Week 12 Record: 14-7 (67%)

Season Record: 159-65 (71%)

Saturday Predictions: Week 12

The Gators will try to become bowl eligible when they face
the Gamecocks at noon. More than that, they hope to keep
their SEC title hopes alive. Kim Klement-USA TODAY Sports

This Saturday, we enter the fourth quarter of college football's regular season. Teams will have their final chance to make their season... or watch it fall apart just in sight of the finish line. We have a great slate of games ahead of us and a lot of critical match-ups in the SEC and ACC.

The action will begin at noon, when South Carolina takes on Florida in the Swamp. Florida has been impressive in its last two games, but the Gamecocks have their backs to the wall. With five losses, Carolina needs to win two of its next three (Florida, South Alabama, and Clemson) to qualify for a bowl invitation. After four straight seasons of nine or more wins (11, actually, in the past three), Gamecock fans have been thoroughly disappointed by this year's team. Not only that, they have been heartbroken. Four of Carolina's five losses have come by one score or less. Three of those have come by squandering a two-touchdown lead in the fourth quarter. The other loss, to Auburn, was just as crushing.

South Carolina's problem is undoubtedly their defense, which is perhaps the worst in the conference. The Gamecock offense, and particularly the passing game, on the other hand, has kept their team in just about every game. The Gamecocks also have a strong halfback in Mike Davis. They will have to find a way to move the ball against a Florida defense that has been very strong when it needed to be in recent games.

Florida's offense has been surprisingly effective in its last two games (since Treon Harris replaced Jeff Driskel at quarterback). They must continue this performance against a South Carolina defense that has struggled to stop anyone. The Gators may be playing at home, but the Gamecocks have the advantage of having had an extra week to prepare. A victory gives the Gators bowl eligibility and extends their hopes of reaching the SEC Championship Game in Atlanta. With their defense and running game, Florida should be the better team and good enough to win. However, the extra week of preparation may have been enough for Spurrier and the Gamecocks to find a way to beat the Gators in Gainesville.

The Yellow Jackets have a chance to earn their ninth win of
the season this Saturday in Atlanta. Grant Halverson

Also at noon, Ohio State visits Minnesota in Minneapolis. The Golden Gophers have exceeded expectations this year and now, along with Nebraska and Wisconsin, lead the Big Ten West. The Buckeyes looked good last week and have generally played well this season. Minnesota will need to catch the Buckeyes off-guard if they hope to pull the upset.

Expect more midday madness when Clemson battles Georgia Tech in Atlanta. Tech needs a win here and two upsets of Duke to win their division in the ACC. Speaking of Duke, the Blue Devils face the Hokies in an attempt to win their ninth game of the season. Both teams tend to play tight games, although Duke is certainly more successful at winning such close games. Marshall will try to stay perfect when they play a Rice team that has won six straight.

The big showdown in the Big Ten's West division will arrive when Nebraska plays Wisconsin in Madison. Besides wearing similar uniforms and playing in cities named after presidents, the Badgers and the Cornhuskers share a few characteristics. They both have very good defenses and solid, run-first offenses. This should be a great battle between quality football teams that have improved throughout the year. The winner takes the fast track to facing (presumably) Ohio State in the Big Ten Championship Game.

Knoxville will be hosting two teams desperate for bowl eligibility. The Kentucky Wildcats, who have lost four of their last five, play the Tennessee Volunteers. The Volunteers have had an extra week to prepare and are likely confident after their win over South Carolina two weeks ago. Kentucky, meanwhile, is reeling after being destroyed by Georgia last week. The Wildcats need a win here or in Louisville two weeks from now to go bowling.

The challenges don't pause for Alabama after last week's
overtime win. This week's obstacle is the highly formidable
and unbeaten Bulldogs of Mississippi State.
Derick E. Hingle-USA TODAY Sports

The biggest game of the day will again be played in Tuscaloosa. There, the undefeated Mississippi State Bulldogs will meet the once-defeated Alabama Crimson Tide. Despite their unblemished record, the Bulldogs are noted underdogs in this game (eight points by the Vegas spread). Both teams are two of the most complete in the country; both have well-rounded (but not perfect) offenses and two of the nation's best defenses. The Tide defense has not surrendered more than 23 points in a game while the Bulldog offense has been held to less than 34 points only once. One common factor between these two teams was their near-defeats to Arkansas. The winner will have the easiest path of any SEC team to reaching the playoffs (though each still needs to worry about beating their in-state rival at the season's end).

At the same time those two titans will be battling for SEC supremacy, the nation's two most prolific running offenses will be dueling in Annapolis. Georgia Southern's triple option (the most productive rushing offense in the country) will be challenging Navy's flexbone. A new member of the FBS, Georgia Southern has had perhaps the most successful first-year ever, having won eight of their ten games and all of their contests in-conference. Narrow losses to NC State and Georgia Tech are the only things separating Southern from a perfect season. Navy, on the other hand, has experienced a bit of a let-down since last year's 9-4 season. A difficult schedule is a large factor in Navy's five-loss record. Don't be too surprised if some new record for combined rushing yards is set during this game.

Todd Gurley, now his team's second-leading rusher (behind Nick Chubb), returns when Auburn takes on Georgia in Athens. This year's edition of the Deep South's Oldest Rivalry features two of the SEC's best rushing offenses, though they differ in style. Auburn uses a tandem of quarterback Nick Marshall and halfback Cameron Artis-Payne. Anticipate both Georgia and Auburn to be fairly angry after recent upset losses to Florida and Texas A&M, respectively. A key will be how Gurley integrates back into the Georgia offense after a long period of absence. Also watch for what team implements the pass more effectively and which team avoids more costly errors.

Miami hopes to defeat Florida State with their fearsome
rushing attack. They may need a few lucky breaks to slow
FSU's quarterback. Mike Ehrmann

Two old Big 12 teams, Missouri and Texas A&M, meet for the last time in several years this Saturday in College Station. A Missouri loss seriously endangers their hopes for an SEC Championship appearance; if Georgia wins beforehand, Mizzou is eliminated with a loss (as they hold a tiebreaker advantage over the Tigers). The Tiger defense will be challenged by an Aggie offense that looks resurgent after their upset win over Auburn last week.

The ACC's signature game of the week matches up Florida State with rival Miami. Florida State's struggles to remain unbeaten have been well documented on this blog and the Seminoles face another tough test in the Hurricanes this week. Although Jameis Winston has been an outstanding quarterback this year (at least after he's thrown a few picks), the Canes have their own Heisman candidate in running back Duke Johnson. Johnson has been phenomenal this season, especially since late September. Florida State has a strong defense, even if it doesn't rank as elite. Their objective will be to stop Johnson; if they cannot limit his effectiveness, Miami has a clear advantage in this game. The Hurricanes also have home-field advantage and the edge provided by two weeks of preparation (compared the Seminoles' one).

The last game to watch for will be Arkansas versus LSU in Fayetteville. Despite losing four of their last five, the Razorbacks look extremely dangerous, as they've come absurdly close to pulling off several major upsets. They'll be especially hungry having had an extra week to prepare for border-rival LSU at home.

State of Florida:

• UCF (5-3) over Tulsa (2-7), 34-20
• Florida (5-3) over South Carolina (4-5), 38-30
• Middle Tennessee (5-4) over FIU (3-7), 34-27
• #2 Florida State (9-0) over Miami (6-3), 41-38
• South Florida (3-6) over SMU (0-8), 24-17
• Florida Atlantic (3-7), BYE

Southeastern Conference:

• #4 Alabama (8-1) over #1 Mississippi State (9-0), 28-24
• Tennessee (4-5) over Kentucky (5-5), 42-31
• #16 Georgia (7-2) over #9 Auburn (7-2), 45-41
• Texas A&M (7-3) over Missouri (7-2), 28-21
• #20 LSU (7-3) over Arkansas (4-5), 31-27
• #10 Mississippi (8-2), BYE
• Vanderbilt (3-7), BYE

Top 25:

• #8 Ohio State (8-1) over Minnesota (7-2), 38-23
• #24 Georgia Tech (8-2) over #18 Clemson (7-2), 38-34
• #19 Duke (8-1) over Virginia Tech (4-5), 24-20
• #21 Marshall (9-0) over Rice (6-3), 35-17
• #5 TCU (8-1) over Kansas (3-6), 56-14
• #22 Wisconsin (7-2) over #11 Nebraska (8-1), 34-31
• #15 Notre Dame (7-2) over Northwestern (3-6), 38-17
• #17 Arizona (7-2) over Washington (6-4), 31-17
• #25 Utah (6-3) over Stanford (5-4), 31-24
• #12 Michigan State (7-2) over Maryland (6-3), 34-20
• #7 Arizona State (8-1) over Oregon State (4-5), 31-20
• #6 Baylor (8-1), BYE
• #23 Colorado State (9-1), BYE
• #13 Kansas State (7-2), BYE
• #3 Oregon (9-1), BYE
• #14 UCLA (8-2), BYE

Know Your Opponent: South Carolina

The Gators return to Gainesville for their final SEC game of the regular season. Their opponents are the Gamecocks of the University of South Carolina. South Carolina College was founded in 1801 and later became the University of South Carolina shortly after the Civil War. The school now enrolls almost 32,000 students, including over 24,000 undergrads. The school colors are garnet (a dark shade of red) and black.

When South Carolina last met Florida in the Swamp, the
Gators exploited four Gamecock turnovers to rout the Cocks,
44-11. The lopsided victory was accomplished despite only
recording 183 yards of offense. Kim Klement-US PRESSWIRE

South Carolina first began playing football in 1892 and has had moderate success since that time. South Carolina was a charter member of the Atlantic Coast Conference (ACC) in 1953 and remained in that conference until becoming an independent in 1971. South Carolina joined the Southeastern Conference in 1992. South Carolina won a single ACC championship in 1969 and has never won an SEC title. The Gamecocks play home games in Williams-Brice Stadium, near the university campus. Williams-Brice Stadium has a capacity of over 80,000. The record single-game attendance, however, stands at over 85,000.

Despite a list of notable successes, South Carolina has never won a national title. One Gamecock, George Rogers, was awarded the Heisman Trophy in 1980. Recently, South Carolina has finished as high as #9, #8, and #4 in the final AP polls (2011, 2012, and 2013, respectively). In addition, 2011, 2012, and 2013 were the first, second, and third years that South Carolina had won 11 games in a single season.

The Florida Gators and South Carolina Gamecocks first met on the football field in 1911. However, they only began playing each other annually when South Carolina joined the SEC in 1992. The Gators and Gamecocks have played a total of 34 games; 24 have ended in Florida triumphs, seven have been won by South Carolina, and three have been ties. The series has become more competitive since former Gator quarterback and head coach Steve Spurrier became head coach of the Gamecocks. Spurrier’s Gamecocks have defeated his old team on four occasions and played one notable game against the 2006 Gator squad that would go on to a national title. Florida had to block two kicks, a PAT and a field goal, to preserve their lead and come out with a 17-16 victory over the Gamecocks in the Swamp.

South Carolina's fight song, "The Fighting Gamecocks Lead the Way", is actually an arrangement of the show tune "Step to the Rear" from Elmer Bernstein's 1967 musical "How Now, Dow Jones". Athletic director Paul Dietzel replaced the old fight song with it shortly after the musical closed on Broadway.