Thursday, November 13, 2014

Saturday Predictions: Week 12

The Gators will try to become bowl eligible when they face
the Gamecocks at noon. More than that, they hope to keep
their SEC title hopes alive. Kim Klement-USA TODAY Sports
This Saturday, we enter the fourth quarter of college football's regular season. Teams will have their final chance to make their season... or watch it fall apart just in sight of the finish line. We have a great slate of games ahead of us and a lot of critical match-ups in the SEC and ACC.

The action will begin at noon, when South Carolina takes on Florida in the Swamp. Florida has been impressive in its last two games, but the Gamecocks have their backs to the wall. With five losses, Carolina needs to win two of its next three (Florida, South Alabama, and Clemson) to qualify for a bowl invitation. After four straight seasons of nine or more wins (11, actually, in the past three), Gamecock fans have been thoroughly disappointed by this year's team. Not only that, they have been heartbroken. Four of Carolina's five losses have come by one score or less. Three of those have come by squandering a two-touchdown lead in the fourth quarter. The other loss, to Auburn, was just as crushing.

South Carolina's problem is undoubtedly their defense, which is perhaps the worst in the conference. The Gamecock offense, and particularly the passing game, on the other hand, has kept their team in just about every game. The Gamecocks also have a strong halfback in Mike Davis. They will have to find a way to move the ball against a Florida defense that has been very strong when it needed to be in recent games.

Florida's offense has been surprisingly effective in its last two games (since Treon Harris replaced Jeff Driskel at quarterback). They must continue this performance against a South Carolina defense that has struggled to stop anyone. The Gators may be playing at home, but the Gamecocks have the advantage of having had an extra week to prepare. A victory gives the Gators bowl eligibility and extends their hopes of reaching the SEC Championship Game in Atlanta. With their defense and running game, Florida should be the better team and good enough to win. However, the extra week of preparation may have been enough for Spurrier and the Gamecocks to find a way to beat the Gators in Gainesville.

The Yellow Jackets have a chance to earn their ninth win of
the season this Saturday in Atlanta. Grant Halverson
Also at noon, Ohio State visits Minnesota in Minneapolis. The Golden Gophers have exceeded expectations this year and now, along with Nebraska and Wisconsin, lead the Big Ten West. The Buckeyes looked good last week and have generally played well this season. Minnesota will need to catch the Buckeyes off-guard if they hope to pull the upset.

Expect more midday madness when Clemson battles Georgia Tech in Atlanta. Tech needs a win here and two upsets of Duke to win their division in the ACC. Speaking of Duke, the Blue Devils face the Hokies in an attempt to win their ninth game of the season. Both teams tend to play tight games, although Duke is certainly more successful at winning such close games. Marshall will try to stay perfect when they play a Rice team that has won six straight.

The big showdown in the Big Ten's West division will arrive when Nebraska plays Wisconsin in Madison. Besides wearing similar uniforms and playing in cities named after presidents, the Badgers and the Cornhuskers share a few characteristics. They both have very good defenses and solid, run-first offenses. This should be a great battle between quality football teams that have improved throughout the year. The winner takes the fast track to facing (presumably) Ohio State in the Big Ten Championship Game.

Knoxville will be hosting two teams desperate for bowl eligibility. The Kentucky Wildcats, who have lost four of their last five, play the Tennessee Volunteers. The Volunteers have had an extra week to prepare and are likely confident after their win over South Carolina two weeks ago. Kentucky, meanwhile, is reeling after being destroyed by Georgia last week. The Wildcats need a win here or in Louisville two weeks from now to go bowling.

The challenges don't pause for Alabama after last week's
overtime win. This week's obstacle is the highly formidable
and unbeaten Bulldogs of Mississippi State.
Derick E. Hingle-USA TODAY Sports
The biggest game of the day will again be played in Tuscaloosa. There, the undefeated Mississippi State Bulldogs will meet the once-defeated Alabama Crimson Tide. Despite their unblemished record, the Bulldogs are noted underdogs in this game (eight points by the Vegas spread). Both teams are two of the most complete in the country; both have well-rounded (but not perfect) offenses and two of the nation's best defenses. The Tide defense has not surrendered more than 23 points in a game while the Bulldog offense has been held to less than 34 points only once. One common factor between these two teams was their near-defeats to Arkansas. The winner will have the easiest path of any SEC team to reaching the playoffs (though each still needs to worry about beating their in-state rival at the season's end).

At the same time those two titans will be battling for SEC supremacy, the nation's two most prolific running offenses will be dueling in Annapolis. Georgia Southern's triple option (the most productive rushing offense in the country) will be challenging Navy's flexbone. A new member of the FBS, Georgia Southern has had perhaps the most successful first-year ever, having won eight of their ten games and all of their contests in-conference. Narrow losses to NC State and Georgia Tech are the only things separating Southern from a perfect season. Navy, on the other hand, has experienced a bit of a let-down since last year's 9-4 season. A difficult schedule is a large factor in Navy's five-loss record. Don't be too surprised if some new record for combined rushing yards is set during this game.

Todd Gurley, now his team's second-leading rusher (behind Nick Chubb), returns when Auburn takes on Georgia in Athens. This year's edition of the Deep South's Oldest Rivalry features two of the SEC's best rushing offenses, though they differ in style. Auburn uses a tandem of quarterback Nick Marshall and halfback Cameron Artis-Payne. Anticipate both Georgia and Auburn to be fairly angry after recent upset losses to Florida and Texas A&M, respectively. A key will be how Gurley integrates back into the Georgia offense after a long period of absence. Also watch for what team implements the pass more effectively and which team avoids more costly errors.

Miami hopes to defeat Florida State with their fearsome
rushing attack. They may need a few lucky breaks to slow
FSU's quarterback. Mike Ehrmann
Two old Big 12 teams, Missouri and Texas A&M, meet for the last time in several years this Saturday in College Station. A Missouri loss seriously endangers their hopes for an SEC Championship appearance; if Georgia wins beforehand, Mizzou is eliminated with a loss (as they hold a tiebreaker advantage over the Tigers). The Tiger defense will be challenged by an Aggie offense that looks resurgent after their upset win over Auburn last week.

The ACC's signature game of the week matches up Florida State with rival Miami. Florida State's struggles to remain unbeaten have been well documented on this blog and the Seminoles face another tough test in the Hurricanes this week. Although Jameis Winston has been an outstanding quarterback this year (at least after he's thrown a few picks), the Canes have their own Heisman candidate in running back Duke Johnson. Johnson has been phenomenal this season, especially since late September. Florida State has a strong defense, even if it doesn't rank as elite. Their objective will be to stop Johnson; if they cannot limit his effectiveness, Miami has a clear advantage in this game. The Hurricanes also have home-field advantage and the edge provided by two weeks of preparation (compared the Seminoles' one).

The last game to watch for will be Arkansas versus LSU in Fayetteville. Despite losing four of their last five, the Razorbacks look extremely dangerous, as they've come absurdly close to pulling off several major upsets. They'll be especially hungry having had an extra week to prepare for border-rival LSU at home.

State of Florida:
  • UCF (5-3) over Tulsa (2-7), 34-20
  • Florida (5-3) over South Carolina (4-5), 38-30
  • Middle Tennessee (5-4) over FIU (3-7), 34-27
  • #2 Florida State (9-0) over Miami (6-3), 41-38
  • South Florida (3-6) over SMU (0-8), 24-17
  • Florida Atlantic (3-7), BYE
Southeastern Conference:
  • #4 Alabama (8-1) over #1 Mississippi State (9-0), 28-24
  • Tennessee (4-5) over Kentucky (5-5), 42-31
  • #16 Georgia (7-2) over #9 Auburn (7-2), 45-41
  • Texas A&M (7-3) over Missouri (7-2), 28-21
  • #20 LSU (7-3) over Arkansas (4-5), 31-27
  • #10 Mississippi (8-2), BYE
  • Vanderbilt (3-7), BYE
Top 25:
  • #8 Ohio State (8-1) over Minnesota (7-2), 38-23
  • #24 Georgia Tech (8-2) over #18 Clemson (7-2), 38-34
  • #19 Duke (8-1) over Virginia Tech (4-5), 24-20
  • #21 Marshall (9-0) over Rice (6-3), 35-17
  • #5 TCU (8-1) over Kansas (3-6), 56-14
  • #22 Wisconsin (7-2) over #11 Nebraska (8-1), 34-31
  • #15 Notre Dame (7-2) over Northwestern (3-6), 38-17
  • #17 Arizona (7-2) over Washington (6-4), 31-17
  • #25 Utah (6-3) over Stanford (5-4), 31-24
  • #12 Michigan State (7-2) over Maryland (6-3), 34-20
  • #7 Arizona State (8-1) over Oregon State (4-5), 31-20
  • #6 Baylor (8-1), BYE
  • #23 Colorado State (9-1), BYE
  • #13 Kansas State (7-2), BYE
  • #3 Oregon (9-1), BYE
  • #14 UCLA (8-2), BYE

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