Saturday Predictions: Week 14

The Longhorns have looked good since the beginning of
November. They might need their best game of the season in
order to upset TCU. Peter G. Aiken-USA TODAY Sports

I may still call it "Saturday Predictions", but this week's write-up truly covers a full two- or three-day period of college football. Due to the unusually high number of teams (36!) playing on Thanksgiving or the following Friday, we college football fans will be gifted the most exciting three days of regular season competition that I can remember. This is also the penultimate week of the regular season and the last before conference championship week. But you could just call it "Rivalry Week", because many teams will be going up against a big rival or otherwise important opponent.

It all begins Thanksgiving night in Texas. There we will have two big games: LSU at Texas A&M and TCU at Texas. The two big public universities of Texas are the underdogs, but are both playing at home and have looked improved in previous weeks. The Tigers have had two weeks to recover from their shutout loss to Arkansas, while the Aggies will attempt to defeat LSU for the first time since 1995. Both teams suffer from inconsistent play at quarterback, though LSU is generally a better defensive team and A&M is broadly the better offensive team. It could come down to the wire. Over in Austin, TCU plays Texas with playoff contention on the line. Texas coach Charlie Strong has won three straight and is looking for his most impressive win to date. The Longhorns will need to play a good game if they hope to beat the Horned Frogs.

Come Friday at noon, the UCF Knights will play the South Florida Bulls in Tampa. UCF is the better team and a rightful favorite, but have yet to defeat the Bulls convincingly and have never beaten USF in Tampa. However, the Bulls need to play excellent defense and maybe a little luck to have a chance at beating the Knights. A few hours later, Missouri and Arkansas will kick off in Columbia. Now, I have underestimated both of these teams at times this year. But they both have shown that they can win when it matters. Yet only one team can win this Friday. Both teams have found success through a solid rushing game and excellent defense. Mizzou will clinch the SEC East if they win, though Arkansas certainly has no plans to allow that.

UCLA will match Oregon in the Pac-12 Championship if they
get past Stanford on Friday. Richard Mackson-USA TODAY Sports

The fate of the Pac-12 South will be decided Friday when Stanford plays UCLA and Arizona faces Arizona State. If UCLA bests the Cardinal, then it's simple, they win the division. However, if Stanford pulls the upset, the winner of Copper State showdown wins the South. Stanford has their work cut out for them, but are hoping that their defense can keep them in the game against the Bruins. Arizona-Arizona State is one of the hardest games to predict. Both teams have nine wins, two losses, and have looked great at times this year. Arizona State's two losses were inexplicably bad, but several of Arizona's wins were inexplicably close. Both teams have quality, balanced offenses and better-than-average defenses. Between these two evenly-matched in-state rivals, the winner may be the last to possess the ball.

Saturday begins with a bang when three SEC-ACC rivalries kick off at noon. First, the South Carolina Gamecocks will meet the Tigers in Clemson. South Carolina will try to end a disappointing regular season in a high note while Clemson looks to reverse South Carolina's recent dominance of the series. The Gamecocks have won five straight against their rivals, but this may be the Tigers' best chance to turn things around. South Carolina's strength is their offense, while Clemson has won most of their games through superior defense. Gamecock coach Steve Spurrier is 6-3 against the Tigers, but 5-1 against current coach Dabo Swinney. A Tiger victory will do much to quell Clemson fans' concerns about the current trend of the rivalry and Swinney's job security.

If that game isn't appealing, you may also choose to watch Kentucky take on Louisville. The Cardinals are strong favorites, as Kentucky has now lost five straight. Kentucky needs to win this game to reach bowl eligibility, but will likely struggle to produce offensively against Louisville's secondary. In addition, Lousiville is 4-1 in Cardinal Stadium (where the game will be played) while Kentucky has yet to win a road game.

Georgia has won 12 of the last 13 against Georgia Tech, but
the Ramblin' Wreck has a formidable option offense to
contend with. Jason Getz-USA TODAY Sports

If you plan to watch Georgia and Georgia Tech, buckle up for some running the ball, because those teams do it often and well. The Bulldogs' have the nation's 13th most productive rushing offense. The Yellow Jackets are even better, with the 4th best in the country. However, their style of running differs; the Dawgs' prefer power running while the Jacket utilize the spread option. Both teams have good defenses, although Georgia's has played better. One factor may be Georgia's motivation. If Missouri wins on Friday, that means the Dawgs will not be playing again until the bowl season and may not be so motivated to earn a win that would have otherwise preceded an SEC Championship Game. Georgia Tech, on the other hand, will appear in their conference championship game, and will hope to carry the momentum of a win on Saturday into their game against Florida State.

A slew of rivalry games, many you won't want to miss, come around 3:30. Mississippi State will face a once-proud Ole Miss team that seems to have lost its rhythm after loosing star receiver Laquon Treadwell. But, playing in Oxford, the Rebel defense may just be capable enough to keep this game close til the end. The Bulldogs must win this game to remain playoff or SEC Championship contenders. The home team has won nine of the last 10 in this series.

Many will be watching Florida play Florida State in Tallahassee. Pre-season betting lines placed the Seminoles as a 17 point favorite in this game. Remarkably, the undefeated Noles are favored by only 7.5 over the four-loss Gators (as of this morning). Despite an average strength of schedule, FSU has hardly dominated its opponents. One often neglected factor in this is the fact that an unusually high number of Florida State's opponents have had off-weeks preceding their date with the Seminoles. Yet with an unbalanced, pass-heavy offense and a defense that has not met expectations, the undefeated Seminoles appear bizarrely vulnerable. Of course, the Gators have the more obvious weaknesses. Florida has struggled passing the ball and converting on third downs. UF's special teams have had as many awful plays as they've had great plays. And, unlike the Seminoles, the Gators have often been unable to overcome deficits caused by turnovers.

Will Muschamp will end his tenure as head coach of the
Florida Gators against the Seminoles in Tallahassee.
Kim Klement-USA TODAY Sports

For the Gators to win, they need to find some way to keep the Seminole defense off-balance and run the ball. They will need to pound the ball, wear down FSU's defense, and keep Jameis Winston off the field for as long as they can. The Gator defense will need to contain receivers Rashad Greene and Nick O'Leary. Winston must be pressured frequently or constantly to reduce his play-making ability. In order for Florida State to win, they need to key in on the Gator running game, possibly by stacking the box. The Noles should take their chances with manning their corners against Florida's receivers. To keep the game in their control, Florida State should not allow Florida to run the ball like Boston College did last week or Florida did against Georgia. The Seminoles should frequently use aggressive special teams plays, like kick/punt blocking and low rugby-style punts. FSU should avoid giving the ball to Andre Debose on punt returns. Winston should test the Gator linebackers, who are missing Neiron Ball, by throwing to O'Leary and avoid looking towards Vernon Hargreaves as much as possible.

Tallahassee is forecast for a sunny Saturday, but the Gators should be glad if the weather turns rainy. Bad weather would play greatly towards the Gators' strengths and against Florida State's. This is the final regular season game for the Gators, who have nothing to lose and will be playing their last game for their coach. The Seminoles, however, have everything to lose, as a loss could knock them out of playoff contention. The Noles also must prepare for a match-up against Georgia Tech the following week. Florida State has the intangible advantage of playing at home (although the home team has lost the last three in this series).

While all that action is going on down south, Wisconsin and Minnesota will be battling for the Big Ten West championship as well as Paul Bunyan's Axe. Both teams love running the ball and are averse to the forward pass. In a rivalry that has been played for 108 straight years (the longest uninterrupted series between two FBS teams), it has been a considerable time since both these teams have been ranked and relevant. Wisconsin has been the dominant team of late, although Minnesota will field their strongest team in years. But Wisconsin may have the slightly better team and will play at home (the Gophers have not won in Madison since 1994). The winner will play Ohio State for the Big Ten Championship.

Tennessee will face Vanderbilt in Nashville, looking to become bowl eligible. If the Vols beat the Commodores and Kentucky finds some way to beat Louisville, Vandy will be the lone SEC team ineligible for a bowl bid.

Beating Auburn would advance Alabama to the SEC
Championship Game. Marvin Gentry-USA TODAY Sports

The last SEC game of the week will also be the most anticipated. The Iron Bowl, featuring Alabama and Auburn, has become the sport's premier rival in recent years. All of the previous five winners of this game have appeared in a national championship game (four have won it). Alabama is looking for revenge after losing last year's game on a humiliating field-goal return. Auburn is hoping to ruin their rival's conference and national championship hopes. If Mississippi State and Auburn both win on Friday, it will be the Bulldogs that reach Atlanta the following Saturday.

Alabama has played many close games on their way to a one-loss record, but has always played well against strong competition. Auburn, however, has played several bad games (including a 34-7 defeat at the hands of Georgia). The Tigers will need to pull out all the offensive stops in order to down the Tide in Tuscaloosa. Alabama appears to be the better team, but this didn't stop Auburn from pulling the upset against Alabama in 2010 and 2013. Maybe we shouldn't be too surprised if the Tigers shock the world again.

State of Florida:

• UCF (7-3) over South Florida (4-7), 27-17
• Old Dominion (5-6) over Florida Atlantic (3-8), 32-29
• Florida (6-4) over #1 Florida State (11-0), 31-27
• Miami (6-5) over Pittsburgh (5-6), 33-30
• FIU (4-8), END OF SEASON

Southeastern Conference:

• LSU (7-4) over Texas A&M (7-4), 34-31
• Arkansas (6-5) over #17 Missouri (9-2), 23-20
• South Carolina (6-5) over #23 Clemson (8-3), 35-28
• #8 Georgia (9-2) over #16 Georgia Tech (9-2), 38-31
• #24 Louisville (8-3) over Kentucky (5-6), 38-24
• #4 Mississippi State (10-1) over #18 Mississippi (8-3), 21-13
• Tennessee (5-6) over Vanderbilt (3-8), 35-14
• #2 Alabama (10-1) over #15 Auburn (8-3), 24-17

Top 25:

• Texas (6-5) over #6 TCU (9-1), 25-23
• #19 Marshall (11-0) over Western Kentucky (6-5), 35-13
• #12 Arizona (9-2) over #13 Arizona State (9-2), 38-34
• #9 UCLA (9-2) over Stanford (6-5), 34-17
• #21 Colorado State (10-1) over Air Force (8-3), 34-20
• #7 Ohio State (10-1) over Michigan (5-6), 42-13
• #5 Baylor (9-1) over Texas Tech (4-7), 52-28
• #10 Michigan State (9-2) over Penn State (6-5), 34-13
• #14 Wisconsin (9-2) over #22 Minnesota (8-3), 31-24
• #11 Kansas State (8-2) over Kansas (3-8), 45-20
• #3 Oregon (10-1) over Oregon State (5-6), 45-24
• #25 Boise State (9-2) over Utah State (9-3), 34-27
• #20 Oklahoma (8-3), BYE