Wednesday, October 21, 2015

Saturday Predictions: Week 8

Temple is 6-0 for the first time since 1974, but may not stay
unbeaten for long with a trip to Greenville on Thursday.
Derik Hamilton-USA TODAY Sports
We should have a very exciting week of football upcoming even if it doesn't surpass the last or the next. Thursday night is gifted with three matchups that are all of some importance. Undefeated Temple goes on the road to play East Carolina. The Pirates (4-3) might be better than their record suggests while the Owls may be one of the more vulnerable unbeatens. Last year, a ranked East Carolina team was upset by Temple in Philadelphia; the Pirates could return the favor this season. Two of the Sun Belt's best teams, Georgia Southern and Appalachian State, will clash in Boone to determine who earns bowl eligibility first. Both teams are 5-1, are unbeaten in conference play, and have been generally impressive outside of one blowout loss for each team (Georgia Southern was blown out by West Virginia while App State was torched by Clemson). Finally, the state of California's finest public institutions will pit their teams on the gridiron for the 85th time in history. Cal is 5-1 and coming off a bye week while UCLA is 4-2 after being routed by Stanford last Thursday. The Golden Bears have a knack for playing (and winning) close games, having only lost one close game to Utah. The Bruins have been convincingly defeated in two consecutive games, although they should still have the ability to beat Cal in the Rose Bowl.

Their are two games on Friday, but they are of lesser interest. Unbeaten Memphis will be a solid favorite over Tulsa on the road, although Utah State and San Diego State are expected to play a closer game. Both the Aggies and the Aztecs are the lone Mountain West teams still undefeated in conference play, though they compete in different divisions. Utah State's defense excels in forcing turnovers, although San Diego State could keep the game close if they avoid mistakes.

Saturday begins with UCF hosting Houston in Orlando. The Knights will need nothing short of a miracle to knock off the undefeated Cougars. Fresh off a bye week, Texas gets Kansas State at home. The Wildcats have a history of beating the Longhorns, but are reeling after last Saturday's loss to Oklahoma. Texas should win if they are properly prepared.

Miami played well against Virginia Tech last Saturday but
will need an even better performance in order to knock off
Clemson this week. Steve Mitchell-USA TODAY Sports
Arkansas and Auburn will be desperate for a divisional win when they meet in Fayetteville. Both teams need a victory over an evenly-matched opponent before playing some of their more difficult competition, or else they may struggle to reach bowl eligibility. Miami plays Clemson at noon, looking for a huge upset over the Tigers. As talented as they are, the Hurricanes seem to have a major problem beating their best competition. A surprising win could qualify as a major success for Miami this season, but they may not have enough to upset Clemson this year.

Six Big Ten teams get underway around 3:30. Wisconsin travels to play Illinois, both teams needing a win to stay relevant in the West division race. Both Penn State and Maryland most recently played, and lost badly to, Ohio State. The Terrapins earned their second win in 38 tries against Penn State last year in State College; a follow-up win would do much to lift the spirits of this program in turmoil. Lastly, Michigan State plays Indiana at home following their huge triumph over Michigan last week. The Spartans seem to play every game closer than expected, so you might expect a good look from the Hoosiers this week.

Oddly, ranked Duke is a road underdog against four-loss Virginia Tech. The Hokies are a physical team and will have home-field-advantage, but the Blue Devils are better-coached and talented themselves. Tennessee is another road underdog, though this is more understandable considering their opponent, the Alabama Crimson Tide. The Volunteers are big underdogs and can only compete if their defense plays their best game of the year and their offense performs more consistently than in past games.

Vanderbilt will face Missouri at home in what should be one of the ugliest defensive battles of the year. Both teams' dysfunctional offenses are married to talented and competent defenses. A combined score beyond 25 points should come as a surprise. USF returns to Tampa to play the SMU Mustangs. The Bulls should find it easier to score on this SMU defense, although must not underestimate the Mustangs' offensive weapons.

Georgia Tech has lost five consecutive games, however, they
have tended to play well against FSU in the last 15 years.
Brett Davis-USA TODAY Sports
The evening slate of games begins with Florida State and Georgia Tech. Since 1999, all but one game between these ACC schools has been decided by one score or less. This season, the Seminoles are undefeated while the Jackets have accumulated a disappointing five losses on the year. Despite this, the experts in Vegas are predicting a close game. The Seminoles should cover the point spread as long as their running back is healthy and their defense doesn't let a few big plays slip.

The only game between two ranked teams will be played in Oxford, Mississippi between Texas A&M and Ole Miss. Both teams are coming off shocking defeats, and must not fall victim to the distraction of regret this weekend. Both teams have been too reliant on the pass this season. Ole Miss simply hasn't been able to move the ball on the ground in short-down situations, while A&M had their game ruined against Alabama with too many interceptions. The team that forces more interceptions will probably win this game as well.

LSU is riding high after last week's win over Florida, but shouldn't be too content with Western Kentucky coming into town. Since their 14-12 victory over Vanderbilt in their season opener, the Hilltoppers have averaged 49.5 points per game while allowing just 26 points per game (granted, against mediocre competition). Don't be too surprised if Western Kentucky puts up a few points against the Tigers. In Los Angeles, three-loss USC will host highly-ranked and undefeated Utah. Despite their discrepancy in success, the Trojans are actually favored slightly over the Utes at home. Theoretically, the Trojans match up well talent-wise with the Utes. With an interim head coach, they may (or may not) be inspired to play. However, Utah's defense and coaching should prove superior in this game.

State of Florida:
  • 21 Houston (6-0) over UCF (0-7), 45-14
  • 6 Clemson (6-0) over Miami (4-2), 35-31
  • South Florida (3-3) over SMU (1-5), 38-24
  • FIU (3-4) over Old Dominion (3-3), 31-20
  • Florida Atlantic (1-5) over UTEP (2-4), 27-24
  • 9 Florida State (6-0) over Georgia Tech (2-5), 30-14
  • 13 Florida (6-1), BYE
Southeastern Conference:
  • Arkansas (2-4) over Auburn (4-2), 35-28
  • 8 Alabama (6-1) over Tennessee (3-3), 35-24
  • Missouri (4-3) over Vanderbilt (2-4), 10-6
  • 24 Mississippi (5-2) over 15 Texas A&M (5-1), 38-31
  • 5 LSU (6-0) over Western Kentucky (6-1), 49-28
  • Mississippi State (5-2) over Kentucky (4-2), 31-21
  • Georgia (5-2), BYE
  • South Carolina (3-4)BYE
Top 25:
  • 1 Ohio State (7-0) over Rutgers (3-3), 38-20
  • 2 Baylor (6-0) over Iowa State (2-4), 59-28
  • 3 Utah (6-0) over USC (3-3), 24-17
  • 7 Michigan State (7-0) over Indiana (4-3), 34-24
  • 10 Stanford (5-1) over Washington (3-3), 35-20
  • 14 Oklahoma State (6-0) over Kansas (0-6), 56-17
  • 17 Oklahoma (5-1) over Texas Tech (5-2), 41-34
  • 18 Memphis (6-0) over Tulsa (3-3), 38-17
  • 19 Toledo (6-0) over Massachusetts (1-5), 45-24
  • 20 California (5-1) over UCLA (4-2), 31-27
  • East Carolina (4-3) over 22 Temple (6-0), 21-17
  • 23 Duke (5-1) over Virginia Tech (3-4), 31-24
  • 25 Pittsburgh (5-1) over Syracuse (3-3), 35-21
  • 4 TCU (7-0), BYE
  • 11 Notre Dame (6-1), BYE
  • 12 Iowa (7-0), BYE
  • 15 Michigan (5-2), BYE

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