Saturday Predictions: Week 4

This week I will only be predicting 19 games, due to the large number of Top 25 teams resting this weekend. I'm only calling three upsets, though, as always in college football, you should probably expect more. As a sixteen-point underdog, Florida must play above expectations (or Alabama must play below them) to complete the upset. Alabama is coming off two straight weeks playing completely over-matched opponents. Will the Gators be the third to be drowned by the Tide?

The two other upsets I expect involve East Coast teams going into the Rocky Mountains. If Florida Atlantic and Virginia play well, they should defeat Wyoming and BYU. Both teams are coming off surprising wins, and must not be distracted by their past victories.

Although South Florida is playing as a favorite at home against UConn, I consider that game a virtual toss-up. Both teams should struggle this year against tougher competition, making this game a crucial opportunity for a win. Florida State is a heavy favorite against Clemson, though they have yet to cover the spread on any of their games. While I certainly believe they are the more talented team, Florida State may not be as great as they were last year (though they still may well be good enough to run the table and win again in Dallas). Playing in Tallahassee favors the Noles; both teams have had two weeks to prepare for this signature ACC match-up.

State of Florida:

• South Florida (1-2) over Connecticut (1-2), 17-16
• Louisville (2-1) over FIU (1-2), 45-17
• Florida (2-0) over #3 Alabama (3-0), 34-31 (UPSET)
• Florida Atlantic (1-2) over Wyoming (2-1), 30-27 (UPSET)
• UCF (0-2) over Bethune-Cookman (2-0), 42-10
• #1 Florida State (2-0) over #22 Clemson (1-1), 41-30
• #24 Nebraska (3-0) over Miami (2-1), 27-16

Southeastern Conference:

• #5 Auburn (2-0) over #20 Kansas State (2-0), 44-14
• #13 Georgia (1-1) over Troy (0-3), 56-7
• #6 Texas A&M (3-0) over SMU (0-2), 52-3
• #18 Missouri (3-0) over Indiana (1-1), 48-17
• Arkansas (2-1) over Northern Illinois (3-0), 38-24
• #8 LSU (3-0) over Mississippi State (3-0), 31-14
• #14 South Carolina (2-1) over Vanderbilt (1-2), 45-6
• Kentucky (2-1), BYE
• #10 Mississippi (3-0), BYE
• Tennessee (2-1), BYE

Top 25:

• #2 Oregon (3-0) over Washington State (1-2), 45-13
• #4 Oklahoma (3-0) over West Virginia (2-1), 35-26
• #11 Michigan State (1-1) over Eastern Michigan (1-2), 52-3
• #19 Wisconsin (1-1) over Bowling Green (2-1), 38-14
• Virginia (2-1) over #21 BYU (3-0), 27-24 (UPSET)
• #7 Baylor, BYE
• #9 Notre Dame, BYE
• #12 UCLA, BYE
• #15 Arizona State, BYE
• #16 Stanford, BYE
• #17 USC, BYE
• #23 Ohio State, BYE
• #25 Oklahoma State, BYE