Saturday Predictions: Week 10

They may have a great defense, but do the Cardinals have
what it takes to knock off the undefeated Seminoles?
Geoff Burke-USA TODAY Sports

Oh. Good. Lord. What a week of football we have ahead of us. And my predictions... well, let's say that you shouldn't expect me to match last week's record. I've made predictions for 25 games this week, but I'm only confident I'll get at least 11 right. Those other 14 games could go either way, as far as I can tell, so I'll be more than satisfied if I predict 18 games correctly. There will be great games all across the country, but let's start with the Thursday-night game in Louisville...

Florida State is coming into the birdhouse as one of only three undefeated teams in the nation. They have the game's longest win streak and a quarterback who has never lost a college game. So why should you suspect they might lose? Well, as good as they are, they look as flawed as any of the national contenders. The running game is a major weakness, especially with the absence of Karlos Williams, though they have successfully compensated with a competent passing attack. The defense has been good, for the most part. In the end, the play of Jameis Winston and the Noles defense has always saved the day for Florida State. In this way, they resemble Cam Newton and the 2010 Auburn Tigers. Those Tigers struggled through the first half of the season, relying on Newton and their defense to be their saviors, but transformed into a truly dominant team by late October. This year's Seminoles may make a similar turn beginning Thursday.

Or they might not. Louisville has not just the best defense in the ACC, but one of the best in the country. The Cardinals have yet to surrender more than 23 points in a game. Their offense is more average, though they have a pair of reliable receivers with Eli Rogers and the fortuitously-named James Quick. Florida State has not been particularly impressive when playing away from home. FSU had measurable difficulties putting away Oklahoma State and NC State, two average teams, away from Tallahassee. Escaping Louisville with a win might become FSU's most impressive feat this season.

Another loss to his alma mater would mark Muschamp's
fourth in four years. His three predecessors (Spurrier, Zook,
and Meyer), who coached over a span of 20 years, only lost
three times combined to the Dawgs. Rob Foldy

While Florida State faces Louisville as a slight favorite, the Florida Gators enter Jacksonville as two-touchdown underdogs. Georgia appears to be the best team in the SEC East by some margin, while the Gators look just as bad as last years 4-8 team. I'm predicting Florida will win because, well, that's my rule on this blog (I always pick the Gators to win). To win, Treon Harris must avoid the errors that plagued his predecessor and probably make some plays of his own. The Gator defense must find some way to limit Georgia's fantastic running back, Nick Chubb (that's assuming Todd Gurley remains ineligible). The quality of Georgia's running attack has not declined since Gurley left the field. In addition, if the Gators hope to win, they will need to force two or three more turnovers than Georgia does (an improbable task). The Bulldogs seek their fourth consecutive victory over the Gators, though each of the last three games came by a margin no greater than one score.

Kentucky, probably confident coming off a respectable show against Mississippi State last week, will take on Missouri in Columbia. This game could likely go either way; the winner will gain a theoretical advantage in SEC East competition (though few expect either to actually compete with Georgia). The big game of the week will again be played in Oxford and again feature the Ole Miss Rebels. It is probable that both the Rebels and their opponents, the Auburn Tigers, have the talent and the ability to win a national championship. However, only one team can come away with the win and an important edge in the SEC West and, by proxy, national title race. What we will certainly see is a match-up between two of the greatest units in the nation: Ole Miss's defense and Auburn's offense.

Going north, we should expect a great game between the West Virginia Mountaineers and the TCU Horned Frogs in Morgantown. If these two teams combine for 80 points, that will be a more low-scoring outcome. Arizona will challenge UCLA in Pasedena in a critical Pac-12 South match-up. Soon afterwards, Utah will face Arizona State in Tempe; the winner takes de facto leadership (or co-leadership, if Arizona holds off UCLA) in the Pac-12 South.

So come Saturday, sit down, buckle up, and enjoy the madness of late October in college football!

State of Florida:

• Louisville (6-2) over #2 Florida State (7-0), 34-27
• Florida (3-3) over #9 Georgia (6-1), 24-20
• FIU (3-5) over Rice (4-3), 34-28
• UCF (5-2) over Connecticut (1-6), 34-10
• Miami (5-3) over North Carolina (4-4), 38-24
• Houston (4-3) over South Florida (3-5), 24-17
• Florida Atlantic (3-5) over UAB (4-4), 31-30

Southeastern Conference:

• Texas A&M (5-3) over Louisiana-Monroe (3-4), 48-17
• Kentucky (5-3) over Missouri (6-2), 31-24
• #7 Mississippi (7-1) over #4 Auburn (6-1), 31-21
• Old Dominion (3-5) over Vanderbilt (2-6), 42-38
• #1 Mississippi State (7-0) over Arkansas (4-4), 48-31
• South Carolina (4-4) over Tennessee (3-5), 42-34
• #3 Alabama (7-1), BYE
• #16 LSU (7-2), BYE

Top 25:

• #5 Oregon (7-1) over Stanford (5-3), 27-13
• #6 Notre Dame (6-1) over Navy (4-4), 41-21
• #20 West Virginia (6-2) over #10 TCU (6-1), 44-41
• #11 Kansas State (6-1) over Oklahoma State (5-3), 31-13
• #12 Baylor (6-1) over Kansas (2-5), 52-21
• #13 Ohio State (6-1) over Illinois (4-4), 45-21
• #14 Arizona (6-1) over #25 UCLA (6-2), 38-31
• #15 Arizona State (6-1) over #18 Utah (6-1), 20-17
• #17 Nebraska (7-1) over Purdue (3-5), 38-20
• #19 Oklahoma (5-2) over Iowa State (2-5), 45-27
• #21 East Carolina (6-1) over Temple (4-3), 31-27
• #24 Duke (6-1) over Pittsburgh (4-4), 27-20
• #8 Michigan State (7-1), BYE
• #22 Clemson (6-2), BYE
• #23 Marshall (8-0), BYE