Thursday, November 5, 2015

Saturday Predictions: Week 10

Mississippi State may have the SEC's best quarterback. He'll
face a very good defense in Missouri tonight.
Matt Bush-USA TODAY Sports
Prepare yourself for chaos this week. One ranked team (Toledo) already lost on Tuesday, and expect many more to do the same on Saturday. There are six games you may enjoy on Thursday night, but three are more interesting. Arkansas State visits Boone, North Carolina to face Appalachian State in a battle of the Sun Belt Conference's only teams undefeated in league play. The Red Wolves have been the most consistent program in the Sun Belt for the last half decade, though the Mountaineers have dominated their conference opponents this season (in fact, their only loss on the year was to top-ranked Clemson). The winner of this game should win out and capture the conference title. Next, undefeated Baylor goes on the road to play Kansas State. Baylor has not faced many challenges this season, and, unfortunately, there's not much reason to believe Kansas State will threaten their perfect record. The Wildcats have lost their last four consecutive games and haven't looked the strong team one usually expects from KSU. Finally, Mississippi State and Missouri kick off in Columbia. The Tigers have an excellent defense and will need more than a few big plays from that unit in order to stay competitive with the more balanced Bulldogs.

As usual, Friday doesn't receive any games of major interest. Ranked Temple must bounce back from last week's heartbreaking defeat. Luckily for the Owls, they get defensively hapless SMU as their opponent. After that game finishes, you can watch BYU, who have quietly compiled a 6-2 record, do battle with San José State. The Spartans are one of the better teams in the Mountain West (admittedly, a weak conference), but will need a good performance to pull the upset at home.

Saturday will be completely action-packed, starting at noon. Ranked Northwestern hosts Penn State as only a slight favorite at home. Look for this game to be defensive and low-scoring. The Victory Bell is at stake when Duke faces North Carolina in Chapel Hill. UNC is 4-0 in the ACC while Duke is 3-1, so this game may very well decide who winds up in Charlotte for the conference championship game. Duke may be a better-coached team, but UNC has the advantage of their home field and in talent.

Georgia returns to Athens to play Kentucky. The Wildcat offense has flailed about in futility for the last month or so. Georgia's has looked even worse. However, the Bulldogs won't face a defense of Alabama, Missouri, or Florida's quality versus Kentucky. The Wildcats will need to hit more big plays and avoid turnovers if they have any hope of pulling the upset.

Florida can clinch the SEC East and a trip to Atlanta with a
win over Vanderbilt. Kim Klement-USA TODAY Sports
It's homecoming in Gainesville, where Vanderbilt will meet the Florida Gators. Vanderbilt has a very talented and disciplined defense, so expect them to frustrate the inconsistent Gator offense. However, the disparity between Florida's defense and Vandy's offense is even greater. The Gator defense should prove too difficult for the Commodores to overcome in the Swamp.

Last week, Notre Dame narrowly avoided defeat in a professional football stadium in the state of Pennsylvania. This week, they may do the exact same thing against Pitt. The Panthers have a knack for playing at the level of their competitors, and may have a chance here against the highly-touted Irish. Notre Dame has a talented, but mistake prone offense. Pitt will need to take advantage to pick up their second-consecutive win over the Irish.

Later, in the afternoon, Miami takes on Virginia, hoping to maintain the momentum from last week's shocking victory. If Miami stays focused, they should defeat the Cavaliers. Many will turn their eyes towards Clemson to watch the Tigers play Florida State at 3:30. Last time these teams played in Clemson, the Seminoles won 51-14. The next year a backup quarterback beat Clemson in overtime. Clemson probably has a better team this year, although FSU has playmakers across the field on both sides of the ball. Look for a close game if the Seminoles can pass downfield against the Clemson secondary.

Arkansas and Ole Miss kick off in Oxford in what should be a good SEC battle. The Rebels are favored by a couple scores in this game, but it may be more probable that this game is close. The Razorbacks have a respectable run game with a big offensive line. With a solid defensive performance, they should negate some portion of Mississippi's home-field-advantage. The Rebels should need big plays from their receivers to come out on top.

The action out west begins when Arizona State takes on Washington State in Pullman. Both teams are one week removed from a heartbreaking defeat. They'll be desperate to get their season back on track with a win here. Those who aren't watching the game in Clemson will likely be watching two undefeated Big 12 teams go at it in Stillwater. There, Oklahoma State and TCU are expected to score many, many points in what should be a thrilling competition. The team who scores last will probably win this game.

Navy can gain national respect (for the quality of their
football team's play) by beating Memphis.
Tommy Gilligan-USA TODAY Sports
Another undefeated team from Texas, the Houston Cougars, will be tested when they play Cincinnati at home. The Bearcats could be the toughest opponent Houston's played all year. However, Cincy doesn't fare as well on the road, and will need to play well to upset the Cougars. Later, after the sun sets, Navy will face Memphis in a game between two of the American conference's best teams. Navy will need their best performance of the year to defeat the highly-ranked Tigers.

Michigan State is unbeaten but is only a slight favorite over six-loss Nebraska on the road. Nebraska does have the potential to upset the Spartans. They'll need to play well for all four quarters and shut down the Spartan offense in order to pull the improbable victory. Utah may be 7-1, but they're also underdogs to four-loss Washington in Seattle. As well as Utah has played for much of the year, it seems as though their offense has been figured out in recent weeks. Washington hasn't been spectacular this season, but is fresh off an impressive blowout of Arizona. This Pac-12 matchup may likely be close and low-scoring.

Texas A&M meets Auburn yet again for their now-annual showdown. Neither team is the best in the West, yet they still have plenty of playmakers around the field. Kyle Field will be a difficult venue for the Auburn offense to play in and succeed. South Florida will also have a hostile crowd to face when they go against East Carolina. The Pirates are rebuilding this year, but still have a respectable team, especially on defense. South Florida has been rebuilding for years, and are just now finding their way towards winning. The Bulls have found ways to win games this season, something the Pirates haven't been so successful in doing. South Florida should win this game if they get another solid outing from their running backs.

The big show this Saturday will be held in Tuscaloosa yet again. The LSU Tigers are set to take on the Alabama Crimson Tide in a huge matchup of SEC West powers. Louisiana State has the nation's best running back and a great defense. Alabama has what may be an even better defense and a ground attack of similarly great, but probably not superior, quality. Expect great efforts from LSU's Leonard Fournette and Alabama's Derrick Henry. However, look closely at how each quarterback performs. Whoever relieves more pressure from their running backs by proving a threat through the air will give his team a crucial advantage. The winner of this game will likely go on to play in Atlanta.

The day ends with a pair of games on the Pacific coast. Cal and Oregon are both 5-3 and looking to reach bowl-eligibility with a win here. Oregon's defense has been atrocious this year, but are aided by home-field-advantage. If Cal can avoid mistakes on offense, they can end their six-game losing streak to their northerly neighbors. Down in Los Angeles, USC hosts the reeling Arizona Wildcats. USC should have to much for Arizona to handle.

State of Florida:
  • FIU (4-5) over Charlotte (2-6), 31-14
  • 10 Florida (7-1) over Vanderbilt (3-5), 21-3
  • Western Kentucky (7-2) over Florida Atlantic (2-6), 42-21
  • Tulsa (4-4) over UCF (0-9), 49-20
  • Miami (5-3) over Virginia (3-5), 27-20
  • 1 Clemson (8-0) over 16 Florida State (7-1), 34-27
  • South Florida (4-4) over East Carolina (4-5), 24-17
Southeastern Conference:
  • 20 Mississippi State (6-2) over Missouri (4-4), 14-6
  • Georgia (5-3) over Kentucky (4-4), 38-21
  • 18 Mississippi (7-2) over Arkansas (4-4), 24-20
  • Tennessee (4-4) over South Carolina (3-5), 42-24
  • 19 Texas A&M (6-2) over Auburn (4-4), 42-35
  • 4 Alabama (7-1) over 2 LSU (7-0), 28-24
Top 25:
  • 3 Ohio State (8-0) over Minnesota (4-4), 38-28
  • Pittsburgh (6-2) over 5 Notre Dame (7-1), 20-17
  • 6 Baylor (7-0) over Kansas State (3-4), 49-24
  • 7 Michigan State (8-0) over Nebraska (3-6), 35-28
  • 14 Oklahoma State (8-0) over 8 TCU (8-0), 49-45
  • 9 Iowa (8-0) over Indiana (4-4), 28-17
  • 11 Stanford (7-1) over Colorado (4-5), 31-27
  • Washington (4-4) over 12 Utah (7-1), 20-16
  • 13 Memphis (8-0) over Navy (6-1), 27-21
  • 15 Oklahoma (7-1) over Iowa State (3-5), 38-17
  • 17 Michigan (6-2) over Rutgers (3-5), 27-10
  • 21 Northwestern (6-2) over Penn State (7-2), 17-10
  • 22 Temple (7-1) over SMU (1-7), 31-14
  • 23 UCLA (6-2) over Oregon State (2-6), 38-13
  • 24 Toledo (7-1) over Northern Illinois (6-3), 38-31 32-27
  • 25 Houston (8-0) over Cincinnati (5-3), 34-28

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