Wednesday, December 30, 2015

Bowl Predictions: Before New Year's

The end is nigh for 2015, but the college football season is just reaching its climax.

Memphis and Auburn met twice before during the mid-
Seventies. The Tigers from Tennessee won both games.
Joe Murphy/Getty Images
Birmingham Bowl: The Tigers will tussle when Auburn (2-6 SEC West) plays Memphis (5-3 American West) at Legion Field.

Auburn entered the season as one of the favorite teams to win the SEC and make the playoffs. They didn't end up anywhere near those expectations, barely managing to reach bowl eligibility. It became apparent that Auburn wasn't the juggernaut some expected after they needed overtime to defeat Jacksonville State on the second Saturday of the season. Auburn was competitive against many of their SEC opponents, but usually proved to be the lesser team by the time the clock expired. However, Auburn is better than the typical six-win team. Each of the Tigers' six losses came to a team that became bowl eligible. The Tiger's best performance was a 26-10 defeat of Texas A&M.

Memphis had a very good year, even if the events of November left some fans disappointed. Memphis won their first eight games of the season before losing three straight and ending the year with a 63-0 win over SMU. During their win streak, the Tigers managed to beat Bowling Green, South Florida, and, most impressively, Ole Miss. Navy snapped the streak with a dominant performance in the Liberty Bowl. Next, the Tigers lost a heart-breaker at Houston. Finally, Memphis was badly beaten by Temple.

Auburn is a flawed team, particularly struggling in the passing game. However, their roster is full of talent and can play up to their competition. Memphis plays better offense than they do defense and have one of the country's best quarterbacks. However, twice they have collapsed after failing to overcome adversity. If Memphis can avoid mistakes, they should find a way to win.
  • Memphis (9-3) over Auburn (6-6), 35-30
Belk Bowl: An intriguing quarterback battle awaits before Mississippi State (4-4 SEC West) and North Carolina State (3-5 ACC Atlantic) do battle. Dak Prescott leads his Bulldogs while Jacoby Brissett heads the Wolfpack. Prescott has been the rock of this Mississippi State team, leading not only in passing yards but in rushing yards as well. Good defense has also been key to the Bulldogs' success. Brissett and NC State have been more erratic, winning just three of their last eight games after winning their first four against a relatively weak beginning slate. The Bulldogs have been a better team this season, and should be better again this afternoon.
  • Mississippi State (8-4) over North Carolina State (7-5), 38-24
Music City Bowl: Louisville (5-3 ACC Atlantic) and Texas A&M (4-4 SEC West) meet this year in Nashville. Both teams have had similar seasons, respectable but not spectacular. A&M began their season with a five-game winning streak, beating Arizona State, Arkansas, and Mississippi State along the way. Their performance declined over the second half of the season, winning only three of their final seven. By contrast, Louisville's season started by losing their first three games before winning seven of their last nine. It should be noted, however, that three of the Cardinals' five losses were to Houston, Clemson, and Florida State (the other two were to Auburn and Pitt). The losses to Houston and Clemson (who have one loss between them) came by a combined six points. Both teams utilize balanced offenses that lean towards the pass but also rely on good defense in their best performances. The Aggies may have the edge in talent that gives them the advantage here.
  • Texas A&M (8-4) over Louisville (7-5), 31-24
Wisconsin has lost all six of the previous matchups in the
series against USC. Jesse Johnson-USA TODAY Sports
Holiday Bowl: USC (6-3 Pac-12 South) and Wisconsin (6-2 Big Ten West) won't win roses, but can win in San Diego this postseason. This is the first time since 1963 that the two schools have met in a bowl game.

Wisconsin finished the season with nine wins, although this may not be as impressive as it sounds. Not a single of those nine teams the Badgers defeated finished this season with a winning record. However, Wisconsin's defense performed admirably in their losses to Iowa and Northwestern. Their other loss was to playoff-team Alabama.

USC's season went like a Disneyland roller coaster with its highs and lows. Often lopsided losses to Stanford, Washington, Notre Dame, and Oregon were partially offset with blowout wins over Arizona State, Utah, and UCLA. The Trojans also beat Cal. USC ended the season losing badly to Stanford in a rematch Pac-12 title game.

Unusual for recent times, Wisconsin's running game has been rather middling this season, while their passing attack has taken the more important role in their offense. The Badger defense is very good, having allowed fewer points than any other team in the country. USC's defense isn't quite as strong, but can't hold a game on their own. The Trojans, who also have a more pass-heavy offense, need good play from their quarterback to compete against the best opponents. Either team can win this game, but Wisconsin needs to contain the Trojan offense to come out victorious.
  • Wisconsin (9-3) over 25 USC (8-5), 24-17
Peach Bowl: Two teams with an old history meet when Houston (7-1 American West) and Florida State (6-2 ACC Atlantic) kick off in Atlanta. Both schools began their programs around the same time (Houston in 1946 and FSU in 1947) and played regularly between 1960 and 1978. Of the sixteen games the two schools have played, Houston has won 12, FSU has won twice, and two games have ended in ties. Among all the teams FSU has played at least eight times, the Seminoles have the lowest winning percentage against Houston. This is the first time the teams will play another in a bowl game.

Houston's season will be remembered as one of the best in school history. The Cougars won all their games but one on their way to an American conference title. Somehow, the Cougars managed to lose 20-17 against Connecticut late in the season. However, wins against Louisville, Cincinnati, Memphis, Navy, and Temple testify to the Cougars' claim to being the best team in the state of Texas.

Florida State's claim to being the best team in the state of Florida is without dispute. On their way to another 10-win season, the Seminoles defeated Miami, South Florida and Florida (the latter two in conclusive fashion). Like Houston, FSU also lost inexplicably at one point, during their last trip to Atlanta (a 22-16 loss to Georgia Tech). The only other loss FSU suffered was to semifinalist Clemson on the road. The Seminole offense, led by star running back Dalvin Cook, improved after making a quarterback change mid-season.

For Houston, the key to winning involves the containment of Cook while establishing their own running game. Both teams are equipped with very good defenses (particularly Florida State) and capable, balanced offenses. The Florida State defense will need to be on their game to stop Houston's play-making quarterback.
  • 9 Florida State (10-2) over 18 Houston (12-1), 30-23
Orange Bowl: The first of the national semifinal games will be played by two teams that met in last year's Russell Athletic Bowl. Top-ranked Clemson (8-0 ACC Atlantic) defeated Oklahoma (8-1 Big 12) by a score of 40-6 just over a year ago in Orlando. This year, a different outcome is expected.

Clemson is the only undefeated team in the country after a fantastic, nearly error-free season. Only four opponents (Louisville, Notre Dame, South Carolina, and North Carolina) held Clemson to a margin-of-victory smaller than 10 points. Oftentimes, the Tigers seemed to run and pass at will while their defense smothered opposing offenses. Clemson's list of weakness is as short as any team in the country.

Oklahoma also had a great season, marred by just one (albeit embarrassing) loss. The Sooners' good fortune began with a remarkable comeback overtime win over Tennessee on Rocky Top. However, a 24-17 loss to Texas left many wondering whether the Sooners were a nationally competitive team. OU struck back, crushing their next four opponents, before beating Baylor and TCU in competitive games. The Sooners ended their year with a blowout win over archrival Oklahoma State.

Not only has the Sooner offense been nearly unstoppable for most of the year, but their defense has been difficult to move against as well. However, if any team can beat Oklahoma (besides Texas), it is Clemson.
  • 4 Oklahoma (11-1) over 1 Clemson (13-0), 41-38
The Big Ten Champions have frequently defied expectations
this season. Aaron Doster, USA TODAY Sports
Cotton Bowl: The second semifinal game will likely be a more defensive affair. Alabama (7-1 SEC West) and Michigan State (7-1 Big Ten East) managed to make it through two of college football's toughest divisions with just one loss apiece. Like Clemson and Oklahoma, these two schools last met in a blowout in Orlando (Alabama won the 2011 Citrus Bowl, 49-7).

Alabama opened the season with a solid win over Wisconsin. However, just a couple weeks later, the Crimson Tide fell at home to Ole Miss, 43-37, after a host of turnovers doomed their efforts. The Tide pounded their next five opponents before needing a late score to overcome Tennessee. From then out, Alabama impressed, battering LSU, Mississippi State, and Auburn on their way to a 29-15 win over Florida in the SEC title game.

Michigan State began their season with eight-straight victories, however, it never seemed to be easy. The Spartans won close games over Oregon, Purdue, Rutgers, and, most remarkably, Michigan during this run. A one-point, controversial loss to Nebraska (who ended the season with seven losses) ended the Spartans' undefeated season. But Michigan State kept battling, as they went on to defeat Ohio State 17-14 in the Horseshoe with an impressive defensive performance. In their last appearance, the Spartans beat Iowa with a late, game-sealing touchdown drive in the Big Ten Championship Game.

Neither Alabama or Michigan State possesses a high-output offense comparable to those of the other semifinalists. However, both play competently, with Alabama having a very good ground game and Michigan State playing very well at the quarterback position. Both defenses rank among the best in the nation. In many aspects, the Crimson Tide appear to have an edge. However, Michigan State seems to excel at finding ways to win. The Spartans will need to hit all their strengths to advance to the national title game.
  • 3 Michigan State (12-1) over 2 Alabama (12-1), 24-21

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