Friday, December 4, 2015

Saturday Predictions: Championship Week

Since beginning their football program in 1894, Temple has
never won a true conference title. Their game against
Houston on Saturday is an opportunity to pick up their first.
Kyle Ross/Icon Sportswire
This weekend, all the heavyweights from eight conferences across the nation collide to decide their champions. Besides several teams from the Sun Belt and Big 12 (who do not have championship games), the only active teams will be the division winners. Our first game will be played tonight at Ford Field in Detroit. There, Bowling Green will face Northern Illinois for the MAC Championship. This is the only rematch from last year's conference championships (in fact, Alabama is the only other team in the country to repeat as a division winner). In 2014, Northern Illinois ran away with a 51-17 victory over the Falcons. This year, Bowling Green appears to be a better team and is actually favored in this matchup. However, don't be surprised to see the Huskies pull an upset; the NIU program is accustomed to winning big and important games (the Huskies have appeared in all five of the previous MAC title games and have won three of them). Bowling Green's prolific offense should give them the edge as long as they avoid errors.

Saturday begins with two championship games kicking off at noon. First, Temple will be taking on Houston at TDECU Stadium (the Cougars' home field). This contest pits Temple's stout defense against Houston's stellar offense. The Owl defense must avoid the lapses that doomed them against South Florida, while the Cougars will look to keep away from the kinds of turnovers that lost them the game against UConn. Houston could win this game big if Temple makes too many errors on defense. If the Owls keep the Houston offense in check, they will have the advantage in this game.

Meanwhile, Southern Miss will battle Western Kentucky for the Conference USA title. WKU will host this game on their campus at L.T. Smith Stadium in Bowling Green. Both teams have high-powered offenses that specialize in the passing attack. Other than two games against SEC defenses (Vanderbilt and LSU), Western Kentucky has scored at least 35 points in every game this year. Similarly, Southern Miss's offense has been nearly unstoppable since mid-October, having outscored their last six opponents by an average margin of 48 to 16. So look out, we could have a barn burner on our hands in this game.

At 4:00, eyes will turn towards the Georgia Dome in Atlanta to watch the SEC Championship Game. The highly-ranked Alabama Crimson Tide will be heavily favored over their opponents, the Florida Gators. The Alabama offense doesn't dazzle, but it works and does feature a powerful running game with one of the nation's best backs in Derrick Henry. They'll have to work hard against a Gator defense that is among the most talented and best coached in the country. However, Alabama also sports one of the best defenses in the land. Florida, on the other hand, has struggled immensely on the offensive side of the ball for much off the year and especially in the month of November. The Gators' offensive failures are highlighted by their redzone ineptitude, which ranks among the five worst in higher-level football. It's a tall task, but Florida has to make a few plays in critical scenarios and play top-level defense to stand a chance against the Tide.

San Diego State had an inauspicious 1-3 start to the season,
with blowout losses to Cal and Penn State as well as a loss to
South Alabama at home. However, they have rebounding
impressively and haven't come close to losing since early
October. Jake Roth-USA TODAY Sports
The next championship game begins later on, when Air Force heads to Qualcomm Stadium to take on the San Diego State Aztecs for the Mountain West title. The Aztecs will get to host the Falcons after a tremendously successful season in which they went undefeated in conference play. SDSU has won eight consecutive games all by a margin of at least two touchdowns. The key to San Diego State's success has been a strong rushing attack and good defense. Air Force has not been nearly so dominant, although when they play their best football they're as good as any in the conference. Air Force wins games when their option offense is running on all cylinders and their defense plays smart ball. Don't look for the ball to move much through the air in this game, but do expect a classic battle between two solid teams.

Shortly after that game starts, Stanford and USC will kick off in Levi's Stadium of Santa Clara. The Pac-12's two private schools from California have come out on top and will face each other for the second time this season (Stanford won 41-31 at the Coliseum in September). USC has improved since that early loss, although they still have their vulnerabilities. Stanford is still a strong team that's prides itself on its running game and ball control. Beating a talented team twice in one season is difficult, although Stanford has to capability to do it.

Two championship games will begin at 8:00. Bank of America Stadium in Charlotte will host the ACC Championship Game, where North Carolina will play undefeated Clemson. Since inexplicably losing their season opener to South Carolina in the same stadium, the Tar Heels have won 11-consecutive contests (at times in very impressive fashion). UNC has both one of the nation's best offenses and one of the better defenses. Clemson has had a similar season, except they haven't lost once. The Tigers are very good on both sides of the ball. Both teams are proficient running and passing the ball. This could be one of the best games of the year between two of the best teams, so the winner will emerge with one of the best victories on their way to the playoffs.

Indianapolis and Lucas Oil Stadium will host the other unbeaten team, Iowa, and their challenger, Michigan State, in the Big Ten Championship Game. The Hawkeyes have managed to stay perfect by depending on their pounding ground game and good defense. Michigan State has lost just once (in rather flukish fashion), but have had many close escapes. The Spartans tend to play to the level of the opposing team but have an offense and a defense capable of winning most games against most opponents. Unlike the Hawkeyes, the Spartans are more dependent on their passing game when on offense. All the trends this season point to this game being very close and hard-fought. The winner will be a worthy contender in the playoffs.

Finally, keep an eye on the happenings in the Sun Belt, whose champion will be decided this Saturday. If Arkansas State defeats Texas State (in all likelihood, they will), the Red Wolves will win the conference outright. However, in the event Arkansas State loses, they may share the title with up to two other teams. If Georgia Southern beats Georgia State, the Eagles will earn a share of the title, while if Appalachian State knocks out South Alabama, the Mountaineers will get part of the championship.

Championships:
  • MAC: Bowling Green (9-3) over Northern Illinois (8-4), 37-30
  • American: 22 Temple (10-2) over 19 Houston (11-1), 24-17
  • Conference USA: Western Kentucky (10-2) over Southern Mississippi (9-3), 45-41
  • SEC: 18 Florida (10-2) over 2 Alabama (11-1), 14-13
  • Mountain West: San Diego State (9-3) over Air Force (8-4), 28-21
  • Pac-12: 7 Stanford (10-2) over 20 USC (8-4), 31-24
  • ACC: 10 North Carolina (11-1) over 1 Clemson (12-0), 34-31
  • Big Ten: 4 Iowa (12-0) over 5 Michigan State (11-1), 28-24
State of Florida:
  • Florida Atlantic (3-9), END OF SEASON
  • 9 Florida State (10-2), END OF REGULAR SEASON
  • Miami (8-4), END OF REGULAR SEASON
  • South Florida (8-4), END OF REGULAR SEASON
  • UCF (0-12), END OF SEASON
  • FIU (5-7), END OF SEASON
Southeastern Conference:
  • Arkansas (7-5), END OF REGULAR SEASON
  • Auburn (6-6), END OF REGULAR SEASON
  • Georgia (9-3), END OF REGULAR SEASON
  • Kentucky (5-7)END OF SEASON
  • 21 LSU (8-3), END OF REGULAR SEASON
  • 13 Mississippi (9-3), END OF REGULAR SEASON
  • Mississippi State (8-4), END OF REGULAR SEASON
  • Missouri (5-7)END OF SEASON
  • South Carolina (3-9)END OF SEASON
  • 25 Tennessee (8-4), END OF REGULAR SEASON
  • Texas A&M (8-4), END OF REGULAR SEASON
  • Vanderbilt (4-8)END OF SEASON
Top 25:
  • 12 Baylor (9-2) over Texas (4-7), 49-13
  • 3 Oklahoma (11-1), END OF REGULAR SEASON
  • 6 Ohio State (11-1), END OF REGULAR SEASON
  • 8 Notre Dame (10-2), END OF REGULAR SEASON
  • 11 TCU (10-2), END OF REGULAR SEASON
  • 14 Northwestern (10-2), END OF REGULAR SEASON
  • 15 Michigan (9-3), END OF REGULAR SEASON
  • 16 Oregon (9-3), END OF REGULAR SEASON
  • 17 Oklahoma State (10-2), END OF REGULAR SEASON
  • 23 Navy (9-2), BYE
  • 24 Utah (9-3), END OF REGULAR SEASON

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