Saturday, January 2, 2016

Bowl Predictions: After New Year's

Jacksonville's bowl game could be the lowest-scoring of the
entire season. Dale Zanine-USA TODAY Sports
Today is the final day of college football before the championship game. Surprisingly, none of yesterday's games were competitive. Hopefully, at least a couple exciting games await us over the next few hours.

Gator Bowl: Georgia (5-3 SEC East) and Penn State (4-4 Big Ten East) face off for the first time since the 1983 Sugar Bowl, in which the Nittany Lions defeated the Bulldogs and captured their first national championship.

Georgia began their season with four wins over inferior competition. The Bulldogs then ran into the buzzsaw that is the Alabama defense. After a decisive defeat at the hands of the Tide, the Bulldogs suffered a come-from-behind victory by Tennessee. After beating Missouri 9-6, the Bulldogs dropped another game to Florida, dooming their efforts through turnovers. Georgia finished the year beating their last four opponents, although they seemed to limp by Georgia Southern and Georgia Tech.

Penn State started the year with the program's first loss to Temple since the Second World War. After five-straight wins, the Nittany Lions were handily defeated by Ohio State. Penn State slipped by Maryland and shut out Indiana before entering their final three-game stretch. Facing tough competition, the Nittany Lions lost these three games against Northwestern, Michigan, and Michigan State (the latter two in lopsided fashion).

Defense should dominate this matchup between the Bulldogs and the Nittany Lions. Georgia has a respectable running game, but in all other aspects neither offense is particularly formidable. Both teams tend to play at a similar level. Georgia's defense should be a key advantage.
  • Georgia (9-3) over Penn State (7-5), 20-17
Liberty Bowl: At different points of the season many would have doubted that Arkansas (5-3 SEC West) or Kansas State (3-6 Big 12) would be playing in a bowl. The Razorbacks started the year losing four of their first six games (losing to Toledo, Texas Tech, Texas A&M, and Alabama, but also beating Tennessee). Arkansas finished the year winning five of their last six. During this run, the Razorbacks conquered Auburn, Ole Miss, and LSU; their lone loss was by a single point to Mississippi State. Kansas State won their first three games (including a win over Lousiana Tech), but dropped the following six. During their mid-season losing streak, the Wildcats lost close games to Oklahoma State, TCU, and Baylor, but were also shut out by Oklahoma (55-0). At this point the Wildcats' record was 3-6; however, winning their final three over Iowa State (by three points), Kansas, and West Virginia (by a single point) ensured they would be granted a bowl invitation. Arkansas has played better during the later half of the year and has generally played better than Kansas State for much of the season. The Razorbacks will probably pick up another win here.
  • Arkansas (7-5) over Kansas State (6-6), 35-24
Oregon can earn their eighth-consecutive 10-win season with
a win over TCU in San Antonio. Cole Elsasser/Emerald
Alamo Bowl: Two of the country's most productive offenses go head-to-head when Oregon (7-2 Pac-12 North) meets TCU (7-2 Big 12).

Oregon began the year splitting their first six games, following each win with a loss. In the Ducks' second game, they fell after a spirited effort against Michigan State. A couple weeks later, Oregon lost in a rare blowout against Utah. After another win, the Ducks were defeated in overtime against Washington State. Since then, Oregon's had a perfect record, winning all six of their final games. Three of these games were close (Washington, Arizona State, and Stanford), but the wins over Cal and USC were accomplished with relative ease. All five of these aforementioned teams were invited to bowl games.

In contrast, TCU began their season with a winning streak, running through their first eight games without a loss. These wins weren't always easy, with the games against Minnesota, Texas Tech, and Kansas State all being close. After impressively crushing West Virginia, the Horned Frogs lost their first game, and fairly decisively, against Oklahoma State. The next week, the Frogs struggled to get by Kansas at home. TCU put up an admirable effort against Oklahoma, losing by just one point after a late two-point conversion failed. The battered Horned Frogs finished their year with an overtime win over rival Baylor.

At one point in the season, TCU would have been favored heavily over the Ducks. Now, the Horned Frogs have been hampered by injuries and suspensions, the pendulum of fate has swung in Oregon's direction. Expect the Ducks to have superior personnel at hand.
  • 15 Oregon (9-3) over 11 TCU (10-2), 42-21
Cactus Bowl: The season's penultimate game may feature two of its less predictable teams, Arizona State (4-5 Pac-12 South) and West Virginia (4-5 Big 12). During their first four games, the Sun Devils were soundly beaten by both Texas A&M and USC. In their fifth, they dominated a then-hot UCLA Bruins squad. Later on, ASU lost three straight, was effectively handled by Utah and Washington, but lost a heartbreaker to Oregon. The Sun Devils reached bowl eligibility with solid wins over Washington and Arizona, but fell a couple points short in the season finale against Cal. The Mountaineers started strong with a 44-0 shutout of Georgia Southern, but would often struggle through the remaining season. West Virginia suffered through four-straight losses mid-season (against Oklahoma, Oklahoma State, Baylor, and TCU), but only came close to beating OK State. The Mountaineers followed this with four solid wins (including a narrow victory over Texas Tech), before dropping the finale against Kansas State by one point. The game could easily go either way. More experience with tougher teams might give a slight edge to Arizona State.
  • Arizona State (6-6) over West Virginia (7-5), 41-35

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