Friday, January 1, 2016

Bowl Predictions: New Year's Day

The new year begins with 10 ranked teams playing in five featured bowl games. Enjoy excellent defense as 2016 begins.

Despite some setbacks, 2015 may be considered a success for
Tennessee if they manage to defeat Northwestern.
Adam Lau/Knoxville News Sentinel via AP
Outback Bowl: The first game of 2016 will be played by Tennessee (5-3 SEC East) and Northwestern (6-2 Big Ten West) in Tampa.

Tennessee fans may ask "what if?" after a season with so many close call. Early in the season, Tennessee relented second-half comebacks to Oklahoma, Florida, and Arkansas, while later on they were defeated by Alabama after a late touchdown put the Tide ahead. Just a three plays separated the Volunteers from potential playoff contention. Tennessee finished their season on a strong note, however, winning their final five games.

Northwestern's latest season stands out as one of the best of the last several decades. The Wildcats started the season winning five-straight, including a 16-6 win over Stanford at home. Northwestern lost their next two games to Michigan and Iowa by a combined score of 78-10. Never the flashiest team, the Wildcats proceeded to earn narrow victories over Nebraska, Penn State, Purdue, Wisconsin, and Illinois to finish the season.

Northwestern has an excellent defense and a good running game. Tennessee's defense isn't quite as dominant, but their running game is also strong and the Volunteer offense is generally better than their Northwestern counterparts. Tennessee should have the overall edge.
  • 23 Tennessee (8-4) over 13 Northwestern (10-2), 27-14
Citrus Bowl: A couple of the nation's best defenses go to battle this afternoon in Orlando. Both Michigan (6-2 Big Ten East) and Florida (7-1 SEC East) are led by first-year head coaches who guided their teams into the national conversation during the season.

Michigan opened their season with a hard-fought loss to Utah on the road. Over the course of the next five games, the Wolverines outscored opponents 160-14, blowing out Oregon State, UNLV, BYU, Maryland, and Northwestern (shutting out the final three). This winning streak was broken by Michigan State, who beat the Wolverines on a miracle punt-block return as time expired. Michigan won their next four games against conference opponents before losing badly to Ohio State in the season finale.

Florida had a surprisingly good start to the year, winning the first six games of the season. While the Gators struggled to beat East Carolina and Kentucky, they also pulled a remarkable comeback victory over Tennessee and routed Ole Miss in the Swamp. The Gators suffered a narrow loss to LSU before defeating rival Georgia 27-3 in Jacksonville. In Florida's next three games, they had a difficult time scoring against Vanderbilt, South Carolina, and Florida Atlantic. These offensive woes continued into the home finale, as the Gators could only manage to score a safety against Florida State. Florida lost 29-15 to Alabama in the SEC Championship Game.

The strength to both teams is their defenses. Both teams prefer passing the ball to running it, although neither team (especially Florida) is particularly strong offensively. Florida might have a slightly better defense. If the Gators hope to win, they will need much help from their defense and special teams to score.
  • 19 Florida (10-3) over 14 Michigan (9-3), 14-10
Fiesta Bowl: Two of the best teams in the country, Notre Dame and Ohio State (7-1 Big Ten East), play tonight in Glendale.

Notre Dame's 10-win season is another to be proud of for Irish fans. Notre Dame began the season with four-straight wins before coming short of a comeback against Clemson on the road. Over the next several weeks, the Irish defeated Navy, USC, Temple, and Pitt. After two more wins, the Irish dropped a heartbreaker in their season finale against Stanford in Palo Alto.

The defending national champions had another good year, even if they did not win their conference or make it to the playoffs. The Buckeyes won their first 10 games; during this run, Ohio State narrowly defeated Northern Illinois and Indiana, but easily beat Western Michigan and Penn State. Against their most difficult opponent of the season, Michigan State, the Buckeyes faltered, losing 17-14 at home while being thoroughly outplayed. The Buckeyes rebounded with a lopsided rout of Michigan in Ann Arbor.

Both teams are similarly talented. Both offenses are comparably productive, although while the Irish have a balanced attack, the Buckeye offense skews heavily towards the ground game. Although Notre Dame is good defensively, Ohio State is probably better. That defense should lift Ohio State to another victory here.
  • 7 Ohio State (11-1) over 8 Notre Dame (10-2), 24-17
The Hawkeyes must face the challenge of defending one of
the nation's best running backs in Christian McCaffrey.
AP Photo/Marcio Jose Sanchez
Rose Bowl: Once again, Pasadena promises another outstanding matchup of Big Ten and Pac-12 heavyweights. This year, Iowa (8-0 Big Ten West) will meet Stanford (8-1 Pac-12 North) for all the roses.

Due to their two losses, Stanford was the only conference champion from one of the high-tier conferences not invited to the playoffs. One of those fateful losses came at the very beginning of the season, with a 16-6 defeat to Northwestern in the opener. Stanford proceeded to dominate the Pac-12 in all but two games (a narrow win over Washington State and a close defeat against Oregon). The Cardinal often made short work of such competition as USC, UCLA, and Cal. Stanford also won a close game over Notre Dame. The Cardinal crushed Southern Cal in the Pac-12 title game.

Despite their failure to capture the Big Ten title, this season was Iowa's best in at least a decade. The Hawkeye's won a school-record 12 games in 2015, and just missed out on a 13th. Iowa did not play one of the nation's strongest schedules, but did defeat Wisconsin (10-6) and Northwestern (40-10). The Hawkeyes led Michigan State until late in the fourth quarter of the Big Ten Championship Game.

Both squads possess good defenses and run-heavy offenses. Both teams play well against good competition. So, all signs point to this being an closely fought game. Iowa can win with an exceptional defensive performance.
  • 5 Iowa (12-1) over 6 Stanford (11-2), 17-14
Sugar Bowl: Two great quarterbacks will duel when Ole Miss (6-2 SEC West) faces Oklahoma State (7-2 Big 12) tonight at the Louisiana Superdome.

Ole Miss began their season well, scoring more than 140 combined points in their first two games. Then it got better, when the Rebels downed Alabama 43-37 in Tuscaloosa. After another win, the Rebels walked into the Florida Gators. Things didn't go Ole Miss's way, and the Rebels fell, 38-10. A few weeks later, the Rebels lost again, this time to Memphis. Ole Miss beat Texas A&M and Auburn in their next two weeks,  The Rebels lost to Arkansas 53-52 in overtime the following Saturday, a loss that ultimately eliminated them from SEC title contention. The Rebels ended their year strong with solid wins over LSU and Mississippi State.

Oklahoma State started their season winning their first 10 games. The Cowboys avoided most of the Big 12's best teams during this run and did not have a difficult out-of-conference schedule; however, they did beat TCU by 20 points. Oklahoma State ended their season with two losses to Baylor and Oklahoma (the latter game in a blowout).

Oklahoma State has one of the nation's best passing attacks, but will be facing one of their most difficult opponents in Ole Miss. The Rebels also have a good passing game, but are better at running the ball and playing defense. Poor bowl preparation could hinder the Rebels, even if they are the better team.
  • 12 Ole Miss (9-3) over 16 Oklahoma State (10-2), 38-31

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